The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - 5th Dec 2012.

Looks tame now in comparison to last Feb / March.

That was perfect for my location, LP actually nudged north during the day and gave me the best snow fall in recent times.

We are not a million miles away from this scenario again, just need to get any LP`s into France, not trotting around our South coasts.

[Dave Kightley]

Anyone found That ECM from Jan 1963 YET?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

What a chart that is . What were the 850s on that chart feb ? 

-12c across some parts.

Edited December 5, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Wilxy]

1 minute ago, Dave Kightley said:

Anyone found That ECM from Jan 1963 YET?

Imagine if we had Internet back then!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

That was perfect for my location, LP actually nudged north during the day and gave me the best snow fall in recent times.

We are not a million miles away from this scenario again, just need to get any LP`s into France, not trotting around our South coasts.

Cant' see us getting those uppers until Jan tbh, lets hope we do get the Easterly once the continent does cool down.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - 5th Dec 2012.

Looks tame now in comparison to last Feb / March.

Jan 2008 we had the mother of all Scandi HP developing sinking SW.....it suddenly 3 days before sunk S and SSE......extremely painful

BFTP

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Imagine if we had Internet back then!

It'd be similar to now..

"ECM shows low pressure crashing in at day 10, cold from boxing day but milder to start the new year"

"It's corrected Westwards and the Atlantic has been pushed back"

"CFS shows this for Mid Jan, could be interesting" 

[blizzard81]

Ecm still sticking to it's more amplified guns in the mid term before agreeing with the other models on a return of the Atlantic. Very much along the lines of the meto updates. It is incredibly rare to get an extended cold spell in the UK during December, even during the classic winters. Any cold incursions tend to be transient in nature as it is just too early in the season. I'm sure I am not alone when I cast my eye to the end of December as there seems to be something brewing Some on here are miffed about the ecm at day 10. All I will say is look west - that is a very impressive high pressure cell being pumped up towards Western Greenland. I think it looks like a fantastic chart going forward. I said earlier in my post about transient cold spells. I should correct that - I actually feel that it will be the mild spells that will be transient in nature. I think cold will be the dominant player. I leave you with the ecm day 10 chart. Not so bad is it? Look west

Edited December 5, 2018 by blizzard81

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Jan 2008 we had the mother of all Scandi HP developing sinking SW.....it suddenly 3 days before sunk S and SSE......extremely painful

BFTP

Cant get ECM charts but was this run from the GFS around the time you're talking?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm still sticking to it's more amplified guns in the mid term before agreeing with the other models on a return of the Atlantic. Very much along the lines of the meto updates. It is incredibly rare to get an extended cold spell in the UK during December, even during the classic winters. Any cold incursions tend to be transient in nature as it just too early in the season. I'm sure I am not alone when I cast my eye to the end of December as there seems to be something brewing Some on here are miffed about the ecm at day 10. All I will say is look west - that is a very impressive high pressure cell being pumped up towards Western Greenland. I think it looks like a fantastic chart going forward. I said earlier in my post about transient cold spells. I should correct that - I actually feel that it will be the mild spells that will be transient in nature. I think cold will be the dominant player. I leave you with the ecm day 10 chart. Not so bad is it? Look west

There have been plenty of recent winters when many of us would have sold our grandmother for a chart like that, the PV is getting hit hard and isnt going to be setting up shop to our northwest anytime soon from there.

[Met4Cast]

Early doors EPS, OP fully supported by the mean out to T168.. next few frames will be interesting to see where we go from there

[Met4Cast]

Screw it..

204hr we see energy heading SE, perhaps a little more than what the Op shows but I suspect the Atlantic will be coming in by day 10/11 on the EPS judging from this chart

[carinthian]

15 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

Anyone found That ECM from Jan 1963 YET?

Hi, not sure how they work these charts out from over 50 years ago, but I remember the night of 19th January 1963. Think it was a Saturday night and the coldest I can ever remember from a wind chill prospective. I lived on the family farm in Cheshire and kept a weather diary. At 10pm snow was blowing about in a very strong NEly and noted a temp of 17f . My dad ran home from the local pub about 2 miles away and he told me he had never been so cold in his life. Before I went to bed , I had a bath and the steam froze on the inside of the window. No central heating in those days. The following morning a foot of powder snow had fallen with drifts of 6 feet or more down our lane. What a winter that was.

C

[Tom Quintavalle]

Still perplexed by some of the doom and gloom merchants, on this thread. I don't know about anybody else's but my calendar tells me it's 5th December!! I'm 63 years of age and, as I stated the other day, only in a handful of those Decembers have I seen any substantial pre-Christmas snowfall, in my location of S.E.Lomdon/N.W.Kent.  Notably 1981 and 2010. But on this thread, it's the same every Winter, a case of knee-jerk reactions, to every frame of every run. Or as the French would say, "Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose!! For pete's sake, RELAX. If come late Jan/ early Feb, we're still chasing favourable synoptics, then have a moan but its way too premature for some of the "toy throwing", that's taken place!!

Regards,

Tom. 

[markw2680]

18 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm still sticking to it's more amplified guns in the mid term before agreeing with the other models on a return of the Atlantic. Very much along the lines of the meto updates. It is incredibly rare to get an extended cold spell in the UK during December, even during the classic winters. Any cold incursions tend to be transient in nature as it is just too early in the season. I'm sure I am not alone when I cast my eye to the end of December as there seems to be something brewing Some on here are miffed about the ecm at day 10. All I will say is look west - that is a very impressive high pressure cell being pumped up towards Western Greenland. I think it looks like a fantastic chart going forward. I said earlier in my post about transient cold spells. I should correct that - I actually feel that it will be the mild spells that will be transient in nature. I think cold will be the dominant player. I leave you with the ecm day 10 chart. Not so bad is it? Look west

Have to be honest I was looking at that too, I don’t mind a short cold snap followed by the mother of all cold spells

[JBMWeatherForever]

ECM looks very good to me. Battleground scinario's bring with them significant snowfall. Lets hope its more of a war though with lots of battles on or around the UK as we head into December. Also don't the models in these circumstances often underestimate the stubbornness of the cold block that will be in place by then. I think there is certainly plenty of time for westward corrections to be made.

[snowking]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Screw it..

204hr we see energy heading SE, perhaps a little more than what the Op shows but I suspect the Atlantic will be coming in by day 10/11 on the EPS judging from this chart

Which I don’t think is unreasonable given the shifting around of the vortex towards our part of the hemisphere, though with the usual caveats in terms of NWP tendency to blast away blocking to our east

What follows after that could be far more interesting....

[Methuselah]

Anyway, I think I'd prefer a 1947 to a '63. Not that I'm fussy, mind...

And Tom did say it is all for my sake!

Edited December 5, 2018 by Ed Stone

[blizzard81]

The 12z ecm day 10 mean looks far better than the 00z mean from this morning. Far more amplified and ridgy!

[syed2878]

 A good E CMWF 12 hours run sticking to its gun I hope it verifies come t0. even the ICON  has now joined the cold party even the met is talking now about cold weather and slow moving weather patterns gon from their update is the mild outlook for end of 2018.  I think we coldies  got a lot to look forward to this winter exciting times ahead me thinks.  that will be mild weather of course but I don’t think it will be as bad as this week 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended makes much more of that low in the Atlantic unlike ECM

[kumquat]

17 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Still perplexed by some of the doom and gloom merchants, on this thread. I don't know about anybody else's but my calendar tells me it's 5th December!! I'm 63 years of age and, as I stated the other day, only in a handful of those Decembers have I seen any substantial pre-Christmas snowfall, in my location of S.E.Lomdon/N.W.Kent.  Notably 1981 and 2010. But on this thread, it's the same every Winter, a case of knee-jerk reactions, to every frame of every run. Or as the French would say, "Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose!! For pete's sake, RELAX. If come late Jan/ early Feb, we're still chasing favourable synoptics, then have a moan but its way too premature for some of the "toy throwing", that's taken place!!

Regards,

Tom. 

LMAO I don't know which thread you've been reading  all seems pretty chill.

[January Snowstorm]

I mentioned a few days ago that if the Scandinavian high didn't exert proper influence we may end up in no man's land. That's favourite tonight as the Easterly is starting to look quite short lived. Indeed for Ireland it hardly even reaches us.

For me the long term still looks great but next week looks like nothing special. As others have said we may have to wait until post Christmas to see winter proper

[mountain shadow]

13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The 12z ecm day 10 mean looks far better than the 00z mean from this morning. Far more amplified and ridgy!

That's not bad for a day ten mean. Shift that low South of Iceland and we're in business. 

[Frosty.]

Plenty of cold wintry weather on the way next week according to tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean..here are my highlights!