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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Decent ecm  scandi block in situ  nice uppers over us bringing cold frosty conditions  then we have the poential sliders  which could go anywhere  

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Day 10 is a big downgrade compared to 00z 

 

46052F3A-FA07-4F8A-B212-98C640A531BC.gif

29890318-7C39-48DD-BE5D-9E9B294A38B3.gif

Might be wheeling the gem out tomorrow!!! seems the volatility means nothing can be discounted on any of the models ATM.it is a poor ten day chart but see what Tom brings

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

The difference in the day 10 charts from the 00z to the 12z ECM illustrates the point why any chart at that range is not to be taken seriously!

The block formation is now creeping into the reliable range. Let’s see what happens once it has formed.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECm showing a big snow event @216 especially more N & E you go...

Very brief over Pennines and north moors maybe. 

49E9E748-9456-4D36-B7DF-348013AA5125.png

4BA1A06D-06B5-4EE0-9F5C-284A933885D6.png

28401F4F-284C-43DE-82B3-B88026D04E88.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Even if it does come off like this there is some nice WAA on the western side of that low. 

ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

Eastern side.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
52 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

To be fair, the run that was binned showed a massive dartboard low barreling through the block, that "idea" is gone from the models now by and large, so binning that run was a good call.

Cold, frosty and largely dry however still very much on the table. 

Yes as I said tad too progressive....but the inroad of LP is not to be discounted as per ECM. It’s the way forward imo.....and the ECM in FI is superb.....deeper and more vigorous surge from the north 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Might be wheeling the gem out tomorrow!!! seems the volatility means nothing can be discounted on any of the models ATM.it is a poor ten day chart but see what Tom brings

Would not worry how often does a ten day chart verify! 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Even if it does come off like this there is some nice WAA on the western side of that low. 

ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

Think that's s northerly

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

JMA T192:

image.thumb.jpg.407061ee6351a7de1ecbccb92160314e.jpg

This is a very interesting period in terms of trying to predict what will happen. My view is that models like this are wrong!! And it is relevant to earlier discussion about the 12 suite in the later timescales. I think that the chance of Atlantic lows blowing away the high pressure block are very small, we will see, of course.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, cold snowy winters, thunderstorms
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)

Ecm goes on Exeters outlook.

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Eastern side.

Ahh whoops my bad edited it lol keep forgetting to remember that the air is anti-clockwise around LP systems should have looked at the upper air charts and realised that :oldrofl:

Edited by Summerstorm
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, snowice said:

Would not worry how often does a ten day chart verify! 

It doesn't but if it shows an easterly sourcing from Siberia 1947 is wheeled out

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Don’t get too caught up on the day 8, 9 and 10 charts here.

If we can get tonights ECM T+144 and T+168 to T+0, then I think the modelling of the Atlantic in the following frames will have changed quite a bit as it comes closer.

Usually - less energy overall and more of this energy going under too. However it’s key to get that Scandi High to reality first.

Edited by bradythemole
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

ECM Op certainly joined the cluster we didn't want it to join then! I also see the "winter is over" folk have come running out of their caves in excitement over it, too!

Given it's day 10 and uncertainty is still present as soon as day 5, I'm not too concerned re: what a single Det run shows, though it did have support on the 00z EPS.

TBF i haven't heard one person say winter is over this season yet.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I thought ‘THAT ECM’ was early Jan 2008?

 

 BFTP

That would make him 10  instead of 6.

Edited by snowice
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I thought ‘THAT ECM’ was early Jan 2008?

 

 BFTP

No - 5th Dec 2012.

ECH1-240.GIF?12

Looks tame now in comparison to last Feb / March.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, snowice said:

Would not worry how often does a ten day chart verify! 

Exactly, I expected the ECM to end up not as good particularly after T192, all models have been showing the Atlantic powering in now but I don't buy it at D10, all still to play for, battleground or slider is what I'm going for. Things are still looking too progressive to me but we shall see.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - 5th Dec 2012.

ECH1-240.GIF?12

What a chart that is . What were the 850s on that chart feb ? 

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