Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
26 minutes ago, snowray said:

This will be a memorable victory for the ECM if it does stick to its guns and actually was to verify along those lines.✌️

It was six years ago today since "That ECMECM1-168.GIF?00

Let's hope we don't see a repeat of 6 years ago! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Not exactly the beast, is it

ECM0-168.GIF?05-0 

 

Uppers not super cold no, I was thinking that, but as the continent cools down dew points will be low, good enough for now.

ECM anomaly, not what we normally get in mid December, far from it!

ECE100-168.png

Edited by snowray
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
2 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

It was six years ago today since "That ECMECM1-168.GIF?00

Let's hope we don't see a repeat of 6 years ago! 

It did turn quite snowy in Jan 2013 so not all was lost

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Happy daysScreenshot_20181205-184520_Chrome.thumb.jpg.8ca4df0448d8816538a422f518949236.jpg

Screenshot_20181205-184540_Chrome.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Hmm here comes the low at 192 hours .can it go south east?

Edited by swfc
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Hmm here comes the low at 192 hours .can't see it distrupts get and going see tbh??

T216 could by, might be......a Weather Porn chart!:spiteful:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
7 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

It was six years ago today since "That ECMECM1-168.GIF?00

Let's hope we don't see a repeat of 6 years ago! 

If we are going to see the chart, let’s have the right one 

3AAF59C8-103C-4E6F-A8ED-F94C6E27FB9A.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The high pressure is identical to yesterdays 144

B874D00B-BE07-4E5D-816A-DD996904652E.thumb.png.9931951356424b4b02c726e21828527b.png77BFB641-7F01-43D0-9291-3B2F39AF13C3.thumb.png.1e55a7058fd2ba22a969ccfa2e6bff87.png677BF322-83AB-46E7-922F-077AAE9D47AB.thumb.png.7942aead22f74b9d0b93cdcfd3e38a5b.png5F3AB7B8-2D9C-4A31-A1F5-3895CCCF024A.thumb.png.3a2b1cbed7162592a3cfda7319f33590.png

 

I compared it too 0z I also corrected the original comment by adding the update regarding the 144 chart.

how long do you expect this easterly to last Steve

Edited by Paul
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, cold snowy winters, thunderstorms
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)
7 minutes ago, swfc said:

Hmm here comes the low at 192 hours .can it go south east?

The position of that low will change for sure. It's a strong block. It would take a lot of energy to displace it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Implodes before day ten!!! All up in the air it would seem over the next few days

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

No weather porn unfortunately, quite a bit of snow for the north likely though. I was hoping for more of an undercut, long way off though.

ECE1-216.png

ECE0-216.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM  T216:

image.thumb.jpg.f2053d11a56f06c034716fa641d020d5.jpg

I've lost faith in this model, where on earth did this come from?

Still fairly cold uppers. Probably marginal snowfall for the northern half of the UK. Rain for the south/south west. Will change on future runs anyway of course.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
4 minutes ago, snowray said:

T216 could by, might be......a Weather Porn chart!

Or not sadly. 

B03BA0B0-87CC-498F-AC7F-3433975F7F41.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Just now, The4Seasons said:

The position of that low will change for sure. It's a strong block. It would take a lot of energy to displace it.

Possibly yes.very unsure where things ATM

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM  T216:

image.thumb.jpg.f2053d11a56f06c034716fa641d020d5.jpg

I've lost faith in this model, where on earth did this come from?

Don't matter the evolution is great for reloading and there's a block that's a start.

already the vortex is on the ropes

Edited by MR EXTREMES
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m

Even if it does come off like this there is some nice WAA on the eastern side of that low. Will probably change in the morning but just taking the positives i can find :oldgood:

ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

Edited by Summerstorm
My bad wrong side of the low.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Come on own up, who didn`t tie the Scandi high down....

 

ECH1-240.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Day 10 is a big downgrade compared to 00z 

 

46052F3A-FA07-4F8A-B212-98C640A531BC.gif

29890318-7C39-48DD-BE5D-9E9B294A38B3.gif

Nearly completely different so who says it will not be in the morning?

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...