Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
7 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Agreed, Don’t bin any run yet, I think a tad progressive but waxing and waning/shuffling still to be had.  For me a rock solid Scandi?.....I think it’ll come under pressure..but am relaxed about that, the fact we are getting the setup is enough for now

 

BFTP

 

 

 

Do not discount this option, cold and frosty but no snowmageddon.....not yet.  But I think GFS is not to be discounted

 

 BFTP

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Doesn`t really do us many favours regarding the uppers though.

Edit: Pretty wet to me.

gfsnh-1-210.png

With conjecture...

And as AGAIN the gfs partner suites look to be screaming 4 atlantic bounding..

The height squeeze and align...looks far far 2 barreling..and progressive...

Unfolding will decipher!!!

Edited by tight isobar
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Gfs Vs ECM at 192hrs I know which I’d prefer! Let’s pray ECM sticks to its guns shortly

55FA80DF-003D-4D55-9AA8-8AC17D9755ED.gif

73B1E904-D32F-4BD0-8C15-A95B5D07E0B7.png

This will be a memorable victory for the ECM if it does stick to its guns and actually was to verify along those lines.✌️

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Do not discount this option, cold and frosty but no snowmageddon.....not yet.  But I think GFS is not to be discounted

 

 BFTP

To be fair, the run that was binned showed a massive dartboard low barreling through the block, that "idea" is gone from the models now by and large, so binning that run was a good call.

Cold, frosty and largely dry however still very much on the table. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Snowiest run of the season on the para for some    of course way out to be taken serious  but with the slider lows  some on this run st least will see quite a bit of snow  

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

With conjecture...

And as AGAIN the gfs partner suites look to be screaming 4 atlantic bounding..

The height aqueeze and align...looks far far 2 barreling..and progressive...

Unfolding will decipher!!!

Sunday much better... (I know miles away but just whats showing)

 

gfsnh-0-252.png

gfsnh-1-252.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

These little lows coming into cold air, not super cold mind, remind me a lot of December 1981, now that was a memorable December. 

gfs-0-222.png

gfs-0-264.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Para is good because it develops a meaningful cold pool east and it's far enough out that if we get adjustments west it would set-up a real battleground scenario.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

ECM the King for consistency!:clap:

 

ECE1-144.png

Edited by snowray
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Guys guys anythin on the ecm yet!!!

steady she goes.

92265170-58D8-405B-BEC7-A102F83CA68B.png

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Important ECM tonight, as it will gives a clue as to whether the blocking, which will happen, will be sustained or overrun by the Atlantic, well it's stronger than ever at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.03bdd290b333e2d6f4832c16895c0861.jpg

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Thats 00z mate

Yh i wanted to compare the two charts 00z and 12z but only one came up, posted the right one now. Sorry about that.

Edited by snowray
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Thats 00z mate

What time ya want your specsavers opp???

image.thumb.jpg.03bdd290b333e2d6f4832c16895c0861.jpg

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Nice

Screenshot_20181205-183838_Chrome.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, bluearmy said:

very little between the upper air pattern yesterdays ec 12 z and todays. 

it is consistent 

Indeed, I'm really impressed with the consistency of the ECM...All is forgiven now, I can forget the terrible blow out from a few years ago. Just please VERIFY this time....Pretty please.:oldrolleyes:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

OMG lovely stuff, here we go!:yahoo:

ECE1-168.png

ECE0-168.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Liking the ECM T168 here

image.thumb.jpg.24411cc8b009580e189d390a68d3ba24.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.db1687f2581d585b3320996820ee4ab3.jpg

Position of the block looks text book for advecting cold to the UK, and it is making the very best of what cold air is available at the moment, however it does look like December may take a little time to cool down to provide the really cold uppers most people want so some patience is required, I think.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Blimey ECM really got one hell of a block going on at 168.

I reckon everything from the west is going under that block.

Very very interesting pretty strong blocking compared to the other models.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

anniversary of 'that ecm' today, Wed 5th Dec

Six years on, and still my granddaughter reminds me of it!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...