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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

As we no from previous cold spells that once it’s cold enough then there could well be a few surprises along the way in the way of snow. One thing for sure it’s gona get cold and if your facing the wind...bitter would be a pretty good way to describe it despite the uppers not looking all that cold atm

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

In all fairness it is unusual to get uppers colder than around -8c, especially down south.

Not every cold spell brings -12c uppers - you do not need them! -2c and a slider will deliver more snow than -12c and wishbone showers.

 

Get the cold in first and then like Christmas, the surprises will show up!

Yes, quite, there are quite a few pieces to the 'snow' jigsaw, dew points being critical, and i'm seeing dews dropping into the -category widely on EC det this morning..

All that said, this is an evolving pattern, i'm just happy we have UKMO on board now..

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

We get the same discussions every year re snow potential. It’s pointless trying to pin down snow events more than 48 hours away. The main thing is that it looks increasingly cold. How cold and how long it lasts are still far from being resolved.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

One thing to bear in mind is the dews are actually lower down the western side of the UK- perhaps this is the reason Exeter mentioned snow in the north and west and wintry showers in the east..

All subject to change at day 8 and beyond i might add..

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

Spot on northwestsnow the uppers 850hpa are not severe but there still cold. Dew points below freezing in must places from Monday onwards peaking Friday. It really is a excellent start to the winter season. Enjoying the ride so far.

Screenshot_20181205-074757.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Not sure if this has been posted , some very good warming in FI on the GFS(P). I think that’s the best I’ve seen so far. 

6BB3C9FB-3EBB-40F6-B74D-266AE5057C19.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looking at the spreads, I expect cluster 2 from last night to have grown ............cluster 2 was the less good of the three and more gfsp from this morning 

Thats not the best news of the morning Blue-

We will have to watch over the next few days to see if a trend emerges to blow away the block quickly..

Best to take it one day at a time for now, im happy to have UKMO on board really, once the block forms we might see changes a plenty on how this pans out..

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looking at the spreads, I expect cluster 2 from last night to have grown ............cluster 2 was the less good of the three and more gfsp from this morning 

Aaah well a good old snowstorm then back to mild maybe bluearmy!!short but sweet maybe then!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Aaah well a good old snowstorm then back to mild maybe bluearmy!!short but sweet maybe then!

Its possible for sure, we hope the det is leading the way ...

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its possible for sure, we hope the det is leading the way ...

Yes  buddy i run pretty much 6k every morning!then every now and then i fit a 10k or close to 20k!!i love it but its horrible when its rain and wind!!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its possible for sure, we hope the det is leading the way ...

Indeed - the extended mean  offers low surface pressure for nw Europe in general  and a broadly mobile flow off the Atlantic  - clusters will show more in a couple hours as the mean looks pretty flat 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Indeed - the extended mean  offers low surface pressure for nw Europe in general  and a broadly mobile flow off the Atlantic  - clusters will show more in a couple hours as the mean looks pretty flat 

The det is for sure putting more into the southern arm earlier in the run which will likely have a knock on effect, i'm going to stick my neck out and say the op will be the leader here, if not it is what it is i guess.

Have you looked at control?

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
10 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Really surprised at some of the comments regarding the ecm  those uppers from the continent will produce snow and temps just above zero  for me a great start to the winter 

Exactly, my heaviest snowfalls have come from South Easterly winds sourced from the continent with uppers and dew points just below zero.

Edited by mountain shadow
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

That's some brutal cold being bottled up to the N. Wonder if we can utilise it later on in the run

gfsnh-0-228.png?0

gfsnh-1-228.png?0

I see a -126 in there!  THAT is cold Aaron!

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

I’m not really that worried about snow chances yet, the same rule applies for me every winter, get the cold in first and the snow chances will appear after, also surface conditions on the day could be more favourable than the uppers because the air will be off the continent and so the air will be drier which means lower dew points, I’ve had heavy snow down here when the uppers were above 0c because the dew points were still below 0, obviously that may not be the case on the day but it just goes to show it’s not always about how cold the uppers!

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Indeed - the extended mean  offers low surface pressure for nw Europe in general  and a broadly mobile flow off the Atlantic  - clusters will show more in a couple hours as the mean looks pretty flat 

could be snow for some next week before the milder weather comes back ,IF it comes back,nothing is a certainty at the range you talk about,even the METO are always cautious in their wording at that timeframe.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

No need for all the misery, the early runs are always worse, it seems?

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
38 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Really surprised at some of the comments regarding the ecm  those uppers from the continent will produce snow and temps just above zero  for me a great start to the winter 

Indeed Weirpig The deepest snow in my lifetime down here in Dorset ( 12-18 ins on the flat  and 25 feet drifts) came with uppers of minus 2 on a continental southeasterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO extended (t168) is back after failing to update last night. It looks mostly dry with just a bit of precipitation in the far west

ukm2.2018121200_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.bc640dc4b49574bb03e4b20e6360fa7b.png

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Indeed Weirpig The deepest snow in my lifetime down here in Dorset ( 12-18 ins on the flat  and 25 feet drifts) came with uppers of minus 2 on a continental southeasterly.

Feb78 at a guess,a repeat of that would be something,looks possible if these repeated Easterly outbreaks continue.

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