The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Polar Maritime]

7 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

 

Exactly 1 year ago, same time frame 

The big difference being is this year's Strat is 'much' warmer..

Edited December 5, 2018 by Polar Maritime

[ArHu3]

Just now, Polar Maritime said:

The only difference being is this year's Strat is much warmer..

Last year and the year before and the year before (and maybe before that) it showed much bigger warmings at various runs. I didn't cherry pick one, I just took the same run from one year ago. Take these gfs strat forecasts with a pinch of salt 

[northwestsnow]

19 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

 

Exactly 1 year ago, same time frame 

Quite a large difference over Canada!

[booferking]

18 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Last year and the year before and the year before (and maybe before that) it showed much bigger warmings at various runs. I didn't cherry pick one, I just took the same run from one year ago. Take these gfs strat forecasts with a pinch of salt 

It's ok you can't damping are spirits we are full steam ahead now on the gravy train.

Edited December 5, 2018 by booferking

[northwestsnow]

Strat aside EC looking good at 144.. 

'Up she goes'..

[That ECM]

t144 ecm I’ve noticed that as we get nearer t0 with each run the ridge is slightly further west  t168 is boooooooodddifulllll

Edited December 5, 2018 by That ECM

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Strat aside EC looking good at 144.. 

'Up she goes'..

Cmon northwest snow give me that boom 168 hour chart update!am waiting lol!!ukmo coming on board is a massive moment this morning!!

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, snowangel32 said:

Thanks Feb1991, Crewecold you guys truly are very knowlegeable.

So the UKMO backs down and joins the winter party and gfs is solid as a rock. great start to the day and its starting to get into the semi reliable now. 

The ukmo never goes as far as the other models so how has it joined the party late exactly.

Its t144 output yesterday evening was not much different from the other models to begin with,amazing how people hang off one model run ,if it shows anything a tiny bit different 

[ArHu3]

10 minutes ago, booferking said:

It's ok you can't damping are spirits we are full steam ahead now on the gravy train.

Let's just hope you're right and I'm wrong

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Cmon northwest snow give me that boom 168 hour chart update!am waiting lol!!ukmo coming on board is a massive moment this morning!!

Boooooooom.....

EC looks very good up to now..192 hours...

[bluearmy]

Ec op variations on a theme post day 7 so tough to work out if the op is leading us down the correct route or messing about with solutions and we should be following the spreads or clusters - up to this point the op has been the one to follow .......

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Boooooooom.....

EC looks very good up to now..192 hours...

Any pics mate!!thought the high was ever so slightly further south than i would want on the 168 hour chart!!gota go for a run now

[I remember Atlantic 252]

colder air just about in by 192, but to me looks no different to the E'ly in Nov, still FI though as far as uppers go

 

[shetland islands]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

colder air just about in by 192, but to me looks no different to the E'ly in Nov, still FI though as far as uppers go

 

Yes, but it will certainly feel more seasonal. Although not cold enough for widespread lowland snow. wintery showers, yes. 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, shetland islands said:

Yes, but it will certainly feel more seasonal. Although not cold enough for widespread lowland snow. wintery showers, yes. 

Think the problem will be whether there are any showers not how wintry they are.

The uppers did upgrade in November though as we got closer to the event. Hopefully that will be the case this time and the -6/7 becomes more like -9/10.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Think the problem will be whether there are any showers not how wintry they are.

The uppers did upgrade in November though as we got closer to the event. Hopefully that will be the case this time and the -6/7 becomes more like -9/10.

-6 okay if Atlantic system bumps into the cold air, with winds on SE angle, but showers just wintry, rather than proper snow

[Seasonality]

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any pics mate!!thought the high was ever so slightly further south than i would want on the 168 hour chart!!gota go for a run now

Are you a runner shaky? It was -16 when I set off for my 8k run in the forest on Saturday. Much warmer now. Here is the ECM from 192 onwards, but focussing on the relatively reliable out to 144 I think it looks good. UKMO on board at this range too is a real plus and should soothe some worries. 

[mulzy]

FWIW ECM raw maximums for London:

Monday 10th:  7C, Tuesday 11th: 6C, Wednesday 12th: 6C, Thursday 13th: 4C, Friday 14th: 3C.

A case of it getting colder through the week - by Friday it will bitter everywhere with snow in places.

Edited December 5, 2018 by mulzy

[bluearmy]

That NH plot at day 10 is superb for wintry prospects .... the vortex has moved to the Asian side and the Azores about to pump up a another Atlantic ridge with upstream jet looking abject for the time of year and no Canadian vortex to invigorate it

that won’t verify but the broad scale pattern is expected  

note that the gfsp goes awol with the undercut phasing too far north (eps cluster 30% yesterday so not to be dismissed) and gem is awol for the second consecutive 00z run 

one final thing that has caught my eye is gfs and gfsp end week two are both consistently generating a TS in the nw Pacific 

whilst it won’t be a sig feature, will be interesting to see it interact with the vortex over there if it recurves n ...... seen complete hemispheric splits  from features like that acting as a a catalyst before 

[January Snowstorm]

I was wondering why we had no commentary on the latter stages of ECM 

Reality is the uppers are not cold enough and they evaporate after about 36 hours

[Rayth]

Hmmm tentative signs of height rising in the latter frames of the ECM over Greenland 

[northwestsnow]

30 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

colder air just about in by 192, but to me looks no different to the E'ly in Nov, still FI though as far as uppers go

 

Nope, the dew points are MUCH lower- sub zero from day 8 as we see the continental air kick in..

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I was wondering why we had no commentary on the latter stages of ECM 

Reality is the uppers are not cold enough and they evaporate after about 36 hours

Well sorry but thats not accurate at all..(imho)

Here are the 850s from 192 onwards, add to that Dew points will be sub zero for most..

Edited December 5, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Seasonality]

9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I was wondering why we had no commentary on the latter stages of ECM 

Reality is the uppers are not cold enough and they evaporate after about 36 hours

But the reality is it will bring cold conditions, regardless of the temperature 1500m up. Nobody was realistically predicting widespread, long lasting snow. 

[northwestsnow]

Funnily enough JS you might be well placed as the lows come in..

ps i just read my post again and im sorry if i came across the wrong way, it wasn't intended to be rude or arrogant..

Edited December 5, 2018 by northwestsnow