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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Improvement on the GEFS 18z from what i can see.

Yeah I agree with the improvement. A nice average -7.5 850hpa for Newcastle here. 

 

It seems all of the runs have been getting stuck today. Particularly the FV3 & now GEFS.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
9 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

With the Scandi high now certain as can be in D5-D8 timeframe. Eyes turn to 10day and this may indicate where we go for remainder of month especially with the background signals almost all falling in our favour at the moment. Interestingly press release tomorrow from MO for 10 day period with further update, this could indicate what the MO/UKMO would see in this timeframe - quite unusual for press video release I am thinking, no?

What press release tomorrow?

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

What press release tomorrow?

Not to go off topic but relates to this. I have also posted in winter thread essexweather thoughts for this month via earlier tweet. 

 

Edited by Bullseye
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Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
13 minutes ago, cold snap said:

Remember the winters when you didn't look at the models for days?

What a enjoyable 15 months. 

Yes from slidergate in early December last year through to March and again this winter it has certainly been enjoyable following the models....exciting times considering the dross we endured from March 2013 until last December...long may it continue ...lets hope the morning runs bring more cheer 

Edited by Bottled Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

Is there any chance the Strat warming could reform the Vortex as we already have a displaced strat and hopefully blocking in place. Wouldnt it be like rolling the dice again. I know a bit about the strat but not nearly enough to know what it would do to the vortex.

Ps. The Pub run was a dream expecting MET to change there forecast tomorrow.

Edited by snowangel32
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Is there any chance the Strat warming could reform the Vortex as we already have a displaced strat and hopefully blocking in place. Wouldnt it be like rolling the dice again. I know a bit about the strat but not nearly enough to know what it would do to the vortex.

Ps. The Pub run was a dream expecting MET to change there forecast tomorrow.

Thing is though its not like we are already in a brutal spell or going to be in one, i would far rather have the building blocks being put in place for the rest of winter than have a strong upper vortex about to downwell as soon as this spell is over, thus being reliant on around -7c uppers delivering something in the next week or 2, it is quite feasible that this spell could be fairly tame and not lengthy, but there will be loads more chances if things go to plan and also you might only be waiting a short period of time before even better spells are modelled.

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
1 hour ago, The4Seasons said:

Winter is coming :cold-emoji:. Can you spot the shape of the person on tonight's precipitation Gfs pub run.

18_153_preciptype.png

James Bond 007.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

On the nightshift so first to see the crucial 00z runs..

Personally i dont think ukmo will back down from its slower evolution..

We should be able to  see this morning if ukmo gets the scandy block in place..

I would have prefered EC if im completely honest but i rate ukmo at number 1 so i suspect it will be the other models that follow it..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

On the nightshift so first to see the crucial 00z runs..

Personally i dont think ukmo will back down from its slower evolution..

We should be able to  see this morning if ukmo gets the scandy block in place..

I would have prefered EC if im completely honest but i rate ukmo at number 1 so i suspect it will be the other models that follow it..

 

Considering the UKMO model only goes out to day 6, I've personally very seldom seen the model hit upon the correct evolution at day 6. That being said, with E'ly progressions, if it doesn't go along with the idea, the E'ly never seems to come off, even if the other models (EC included) agree on the E'ly scenario.

I never really know where to place the UKMO model in terms of accuracy of forecasting the UK locale (I know it's standing on a global stage).

It also looks like a much cruder, lower resolution model when compared to the others. Though this doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things where the Metoffice are concerned because they have access to a myriad of finer resolution tools at their fingertips.

EDIT: UKMO is 2.5 degree resolution. GFS is 1.0 degree res and ECM 0.5 res. So it's no surprise it looks lower res.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
On 22/11/2018 at 22:47, feb1991blizzard said:

Week 3 not tragic on the EC46 a very very slight +ve anomaly directly to our north.

Quoting this from 22nd November.

Week 3 is essentially next week.

This shows why I don't particularly rate the EC46 and I certainly wouldn't pay for its services.

A 'very very slight' +ve anomaly to our N would not be enough deviation from climatology to support a block in that locale. With what we're seeing churned out by the medium range models right now, you would hope to have seen a decent +ve anomaly to the NE shown on the EC46.

If it can't nail 21 days out then what is the point of going out to day 46...

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

UKMO makes a move towards EC!!!

❄️❄️

Winter begins next week..

Well colour me shocked 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS now pretty much aligned with UKMO at 120-

Think this scandy high is going to happen now..

Yes, and GFS sharpens up again, ever so slightly

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Daniel* said:

00z GFS is very good ridge sustaining Scandi high great orientation a more sustained E’ly flow..

744145DE-1EB5-4904-ACA9-600BF7A8ED18.thumb.png.c1c6a31ad9b7bf7e7bd1179532c0b687.png

Looks fabulous this morning!!

Think this thread will be buzzing..

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

Thanks Feb1991, Crewecold you guys truly are very knowlegeable.

So the UKMO backs down and joins the winter party and gfs is solid as a rock. great start to the day and its starting to get into the semi reliable now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Quoting this from 22nd November.

Week 3 is essentially next week.

This shows why I don't particularly rate the EC46 and I certainly wouldn't pay for its services.

A 'very very slight' +ve anomaly to our N would not be enough deviation from climatology to support a block in that locale. With what we're seeing churned out by the medium range models right now, you would hope to have seen a decent +ve anomaly to the NE shown on the EC46.

If it can't nail 21 days out then what is the point of going out to day 46...

Remember though its a 51 member suite, you don't always get 'black hole' anoms being shown end week 2 on the regular ens suites when we get blocking.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&amp;ech=192&amp;carte=&amp;mode=0

fantasy world at the moment as i said early  great watching  i cant wait to see the runs later in the day

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

gfs00Z another stonker in the stratosphere!!

day 10

gfsnh-10-240.png?0

384 hrs

gfsnh-10-384.png?0

gfsnh-10-384.png

 

Exactly 1 year ago, same time frame 

Edited by ArHu3
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