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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
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Posted (edited)

I hope i dream..as well as this..'gunnight,'

gfsnh-0-204.png

Screenshot_2018-12-04-22-41-00.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted (edited)

Wow

trough undercut part daux at 264?

gfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.e6170c23e326a16da2db137c43428fd3.png

this is getting rediculous now lol.

Edit:-trough seperaton at 312,it just gets better,a stonking FL COMING UP.

gfsnh-0-312.thumb.png.309d3c84c7ef0f3865b10683373f039e.png

OH YES!

gfsnh-0-360.thumb.png.a7209a6b9330595d539719dbdc6abbf5.png

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
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Posted (edited)

Yep funny how @Glacier Point can tell what the models will show before they have even shown it . 

F2ACD2CF-A00E-456A-B29A-E13FAB557543.png

F44B6774-A0CC-48CC-AA0A-469EA64C171D.png

Edited by ICE COLD
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Clusters interesting - the slightly less amplified ridge now 50/50 against the op amplified - the less amplified doesn’t allow the undercut   but it is scandi ridge blocked - there is a 30% cluster that pushes the Atlantic through at too high a latitude with the scandi ridge too far ne. The op undercut cluster is 45%. Beyond day 10 there is still plenty of fun to be had .......

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Bruegelian Contributor

Bruegelian

Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
Posted

Gotta feeling we might just be slippy sliding our way into Bruegelian dreamland.....

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted

Most important chart of the day,  this one here T384 on the pub run:

image.thumb.jpg.ce001927039e4bfa2cefd17156dd72c3.jpg

I know I've banged on about this, but if this happens this early it will be massively significant for the rest of winter, looking hot to go at the moment! 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
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Posted
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep funny how @Glacier Point can tell what the models will show before they have even shown it . 

 

He is exceptionally skilful.

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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Most important chart of the day,  this one here T384 on the pub run:

image.thumb.jpg.ce001927039e4bfa2cefd17156dd72c3.jpg

I know I've banged on about this, but if this happens this early it will be massively significant for the rest of winter, looking hot to go at the moment! 

Genuine question here. Why are these strat charts always at 384h?

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Rayth Community Regular

Rayth

Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
Posted
2 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Genuine question here. Why are these strat charts always at 384h?

Was in February too , then was reeled in to T0 like a prize trout ! 

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
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Posted (edited)

The evolution is very very plausible and anticipated.  I will go further to say, any relaxation....which there may be but not nationwide, is to do with the shift to produce/ settle heights to North and NW with a potential serious winter outbreak come Christmas.  I’m waiting for members to jump on my side of the fence as I look up to you......

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
Just now, Decemberof2010 said:

Genuine question here. Why are these strat charts always at 384h?

Firstly, the models are much more reliable at predicting the stratosphere than the weather  down here, so that kind of means two possibilities when charts like this show up:

They will prove incorrect and disappear in the next day or two.

Or. They are correct and will chase the SSW down to T0.

All the (few) SSWs I've seen have shown up T384 and counted down, Sure there have been some false alarms, I reckon this one is for real.

 

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Good to see the EC deterministic for T2m for London tanking along with average for a change when it goes cold, apart night time min at the end 

 

9DDFFD9C-AD5D-4EDB-B089-4B9B10A7F658.png

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GeordieX9v Aficionado

GeordieX9v

Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
Posted (edited)

Safe to say the GEFS set are a bit of a joke post 11th. That spread.

 

Scandinavian high pressure is consistent throughout so far however.

Edited by evans1892
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 lovely !! Hoping cluster 1 is winner ..

Cluster 3 is bloody good.

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The4Seasons Enthusiast

The4Seasons

Posted
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, cold snowy winters, thunderstorms
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)
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Posted

Winter is coming :cold-emoji:. Can you spot the shape of the person on tonight's precipitation Gfs pub run.

18_153_preciptype.png

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Bullseye Community Regular

Bullseye

Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
Posted (edited)

With the Scandi high now certain as can be in D5-D8 timeframe. Eyes turn to 10day and this may indicate where we go for remainder of month especially with the background signals almost all falling in our favour at the moment - GFS 18z possibly showing where we go and inline with GP thoughts. Interestingly, press release tomorrow from MO for 10 day period with further update, this could indicate what the MO/UKMO would see in this timeframe - quite unusual for press video release I am thinking or I may have picked it up wrong.

Edited by Bullseye
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