The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[ICE COLD]

Good to see the GFS-P going with it too . @bluearmy have you fallen to sleep again on your fence .

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

So.. excellent GFS/EC and a very wintry looking forecast just now for next week on the BBC..

Fost and fog being the operative words..

To begin the forecast the forecaster said ‘Easterly winds are set to return next week, and that is never a good thing’.

Pfft!

[Allseasons-Si]

The FV3 looks even better on the iso 0 degree z500-1000 (dam) with the 528 as far south as southern France and the 524 pushing into the channel

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

To begin the forecast the forecaster said ‘Easterly winds are set to return next week, and that is never a good thing’.

Pfft!

a case of uppers etc, could mid Dec be too early? peak time would be in 6 weeks or so, not always a good thing, as it wasn't in Nov, dull, dreary, and rainy

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Was snow on the menu though?

Wintry showers..

[tight isobar]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

So.. excellent GFS/EC and a very wintry looking forecast just now for next week on the BBC..

Fost and fog being the operative words..

Contingecy..being the word of note atm!!

But im sure the fence falling is immenent!! 

There is some mouth opening plots and represents alinging...

Edited December 4, 2018 by tight isobar

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

a case of uppers etc, could mid Dec be too early? peak time would be in 6 weeks or so, not always a good thing, as it wasn't in Nov, dull, dreary, and rainy

No

if the uppers are cold enough then late Oct>can deliver

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Wintry showers..

With 600feet to play with we might get a sprinkling ..

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

No

if the uppers are cold enough then late Oct>can deliver

 

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

No

if the uppers are cold enough then late Oct>can deliver

If the uppers are cold enough, early June can deliver!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

 

If the uppers are cold enough, early June can deliver!

If the uppers are cold enough mid summer can deliver!!!, but they would never be though!!   -  its all about % chance of getting the uppers in.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 

If the uppers are cold enough, early June can deliver!

THAT is true as it has snowed on my birthday(14th june),i cannot remember what year it was though but it was many years ago.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

THAT is true as it has snowed on my birthday(14th june),i cannot remember what year it was though but it was many years ago.

I wonder if that was the same year that snow stopped play in a county championship match involving Derbyshire at buxton?  David LLoyd always talks about it.

Edited December 4, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wonder if that was the same year that snow stop play in a county championship match involving Derbyshire at buxton?  David LLoyd always talks about it.

That was June 2 1975

My mother was pregnant with my brother, it snowed in Llandudno, Wales where we had gone for some reason, I was 4!

Edited December 4, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Dancerwithwings]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

THAT is true as it has snowed on my birthday(14th june),i cannot remember what year it was though but it was many years ago.

14/06/Ice Age, by any chance

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wonder if that was the same year that snow stopped play in a county championship match involving Derbyshire at buxton?  David LLoyd always talks about it.

I don't want to derail the thread more but do you remember what year?

the latest cpc 8-14 day outlook looks good too

UNDERCUT ALERT!!!

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If the uppers are cold enough mid summer can deliver!!!, but they would never be though!!   -  its all about % chance of getting the uppers in.

of course if uppers are cold enough yes, but Mid Dec not the coldest, so wondered if they will be

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wonder if that was the same year that snow stopped play in a county championship match involving Derbyshire at buxton?  David LLoyd always talks about it.

It was indeed: June 2, 1975!

[ANYWEATHER]

Good day to everyone!!! Before we get to cold ,lots of stormy weather for north and southern UK,,,in the days ahead,,,,,THEN  a big change , The jet stream undulates and we get an early taste of winter....

[tight isobar]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I don't want to derail the thread more but do you remember what year?

the latest cpc 8-14 day outlook looks good too

UNDERCUT ALERT!!!

 

Yes-the more organisex spag-plots SCREAM 4 IT!..

Another knife...in to the zonal/mobile crust...

As if there wasn't enough...

And of notion 4 a long distance now.

[jules216]

EPS musing:

- AO and NAO going negative again, AO from 15.12.18 and NAO from 12..12.18, median aprrox -1SD

- According to 500mb height anomaly in last frames - west based -NAO and UK/IE through

- Western Scandi, UK and IE under those synoptics coldest anomalies in Europe, but not a huge negative anomaly

- Positives are that both AO and NAO have flipped negative in the same time frame as 46 day output was showing positive over all the previous updates. Once again hats of to @Glacier Point who is quite accurate in predicting circulation trends way before models show them.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Yes-the more organisex spag-plots SCREAM 4 IT!..

Another knife...in to the zonal/mobile crust...

As if there wasn't enough...

And of notion 4 a long distance now.

Infact looking at that cpc chart,there is re-newed pressure rise east of USA linkage to Greenland/Scandi high,+ve heights to the NE/N/NW and west,the trough has to sink SE.

[Singularity]

Overall, extended modelling seems a little progressive on the shift west of the main high-latitude blocking focus; west-based negative NAO setup arriving a bit soon with too little of an east-based negative NAO interlude beforehand.

As and when we do see the west-based negative NAO it'll be hard to hang onto cold conditions but not out of the question should we see enough of a displacement of the stratospheric vortex toward Siberia; that could feasibly allow blocking to reach further east than usual for a situation where the blocking is focused over the NE of N. America.

Not worth getting too involved with at this time of course; let's hope we can first get a good bout of cold air in during the middle of the month.

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, More Snow said:

could a mod please explain why my off topic post was removed but all the off topic posts before it have remained, maybe a little message to explain via inbox would be a good idea.

GFS time?

[Tim Bland]

2 of my least favorite words in winter = West based. It’s such a waste of good Synoptics

[bluearmy]

49 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Good to see the GFS-P going with it too . @bluearmy have you fallen to sleep again on your fence .

still here ......... clearly it’s going cold and clearly we get a scandi upper ridge ......maybe it could ironically end up a bit too far north and then drift east allowing the undercut to get more traction into the uk and the potential cold period could last only a few days with limited. opportunity for snow ..... but that’s all beyond reasonable model guidance timescale so tomorrow’s runs remain compelling viewing ..... it could end up a historic december week or potentially longer  if things go our way  ............