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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM ensemble mean solidly behind the op run at T168:

image.thumb.jpg.013f4bba437bd80a150acf8226c1519f.jpg

Edit, add in the spread, same time, I seem to remember posting this last night, and the uncertainty is much reduced in the key region tonight..

image.thumb.jpg.58abd5b5749868865a36f78e7a1d035f.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z operational brings wintry weather next week too with ice days and snow..I'm really happy with the trend from the latest models.:cold:

Hopefully, the current trend will continue to grow...exponentially!:yahoo::yahoo::yahoo:

Please God???

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z operational brings wintry weather next week too with ice days and snow..I'm really happy with the trend from the latest models.

Great to see you back posting Frosty. It certainly looks quite exciting what could lie further ahead also

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

FV3 starting to trickle out now

and is looking good so far.

gfsnh-0-138.thumb.png.2a5385c8889d686e439830966899447b.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

 

all  i  say  after  180 hr fantasy world  is looking interesting for  cold lovers!!

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Beautiful Ecm 12z operational if you love cold weather!:cold:❄️

192_mslp850uk.png

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp850uk.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp850uk.png

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp500.png

Quite spectacular uppers really. I'm landing at Heathrow on the morning of the 14th, Could make it quite interesting if there's a snowfest waiting for me  

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The fv3 is ni-on identical to it's 06z so far up to 192.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean at 192 looks superb..

'Glad all over'..

Looks good out to day ten to me NWS

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.4a1415a1f9108d868b5f8adb19fb17ba.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

12Z FV3 at T+384. Still winds from a northishly direction, and some stonkingly cold air up to our north:

Netweather GFS Image           One can only hope...?

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Expecting eps to look much healthier this evening..

^

I already posted it to your reply

or do you mean the extended?

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

If we could get to this point, I would be more than happy, NE winds, cold uppers and a LP close by to the SE.

 

gfs-5-174.png

gfsnh-0-174.png

gfsnh-1-174.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, northwestsnow said:

So.. excellent GFS/EC and a very wintry looking forecast just now for next week on the BBC..

:cold:

Fost and fog being the operative words..

Was snow on the menu though?

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Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

So.. excellent GFS/EC and a very wintry looking forecast just now for next week on the BBC..

:cold:

Fost and fog being the operative words..

Mmmm Fost

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