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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

The 13th, not that unlucky at all. Pure Scandi block and a half

 

ECH1-216.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, MR EXTREMES said:

chart of the century ooooo interesting stuff 

 image.thumb.png.29dc992e1064db300bae155c0fa6fcbc.png

looks more wintry than the raw data - some snow on the northern hills and maxes 2 to 6 c north to south 

would feel v cold though 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Nice. Just need to count it down for the next 216 hours 

 

what a lovely looking output.

2C99B71F-0AB2-432E-821D-E77E967CF278.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Bit of an IMBY in FI, why not hey.

East Anglia... 

ECH0-216.png

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

looks more wintry than the raw data - some snow on the northern hills and maxes 2 to 6 c north to south 

would feel v cold though 

Must be more widespread snow at day 10?

 

70A1A2DB-BC82-42EF-9771-B5F889C62C23.png

51B9F700-9EA2-4623-80ED-A246EE3AB6E8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

You missed out THAT CHART IS A THING OF BEAUTY

You've missed out loads Las....about time you got with it, WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE!! 

Edited by beerandkebab
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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed, feb...some places NORTH OF THE M4 CORRIDOR would see quite a dumping!

Netweather GFS Image

The line i hate to here every year.

"NORTH OF THE M4 CORRIDOR"

But your correct, it does look good.... 

Bloody M4 lol.

 

 

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I wouldn't read too much in to either model past Friday at this stage. All show various outcomes for that storm which obviously has huge effects for how it transpires afterwards. Some have the storm much weaker and further south. Others have it stronger and further north. 300 to 500 mile spread of where the strongest winds could be and big difference in strength of winds depending if deepens and goes north or stays run of the mill and south. Only three days away. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Convective margins- are non worthy of worry..

Execptional set up.

And as-per the opening of evalution ..also ramps it up..

@tight isobars x

GFSOPEU00_0_35.png

sea-temperature.png

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
3 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

You've missed out loads Las....about time you got with it, WAKE UP AND SMELLED THE COFFEE!! 

.....and let's wait for the heavyweight's opinions......I  think Tyson Fury prefers the GFS over the ECM

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Should see snow at day 8-9 inland, day 10 only around the east coast.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
18 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Should see snow at day 8-9 inland, day 10 only around the east coast.

D10 looks really cold. Very little wind would be cold in places with any snow cover and clear skeis would see temps plummet.

Edited by Snowman.
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

@johnholmes

Met office forecasting days -Classic coordinates for Scandi High?

479E315B-2020-458D-835C-9304DDEF8694.thumb.png.d917c9a51555d303b5b9a8c01f9a4c7a.png

Not sure what you mean Steve, a year or two ago I did give the empirical rule for the 'possible' onset of a Scandinavian high 72 hours down the line from certain criteria in the western Atlantic NOT in the area you show.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I think we can say if EC is leading the way winter is coming folks...

:cold:

That is the scary bit NW. 

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