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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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See above ^^^

The pressure to remove the block is relative to the directional force applied -

So any NE direct motion is the worst, while East also & North also adds some pressure-

The jet streak in this case is alligned SE but spreads upwards to the North as well - meaning the actual NE component of the total jet is minimal...

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Lovely to watch, chance of battle grounds, undercuts, certainly looking cold enough.

Edit...Heavy snow moving into the SW there.

gfs-0-216.png

gfs-1-216.png

gfs-2-222.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Sure and this would be a valid point if the UKMO had said no.. but, that isn't the case

Well its hard to tell without seeing the next chart yes it would likely get there you wouldn't want that low to get any further East but one to watch its not known as the slayer for nothing..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Snow for some southern parts.

gfsnh-0-228mdq3_mini.png

Beaten to it.

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
8 minutes ago, snowray said:

The T144 UKMO has always been the most unreliable, particularly in winter months in my opinion. UKMO is good to T120, then ECM is the boss T144-T192. After that its la la land.☺️

Evidence or just conjecture?  Last time I looked UKMO at day 6 has the second best verification behind ECMWF.

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Posted
  • Location: London & Valladolid
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Cold
  • Location: London & Valladolid
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Evidence or just conjecture?  Last time I looked UKMO at day 6 has the second best verification behind ECMWF.

Yes we have to face up to what it is showing..

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Snow for some southern parts.

gfsnh-0-228mdq3_mini.png

Beaten to it.

 

Indeed, feb...some places NORTH OF THE M4 CORRIDOR would see quite a dumping!

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Evidence or just conjecture?  Last time I looked UKMO at day 6 has the second best verification behind ECMWF.

Thats what I said, ECM is tops in that time frame, UKMO is still ok but 2nd, Just something I have noticed over the years, and verification stats back this up.

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This place cracks me up. Its over coz UKMO has a wibble wobble cue the post to follow saying "game over" UKMO "says no" then next page its all gravy baby and we are in for slider gate and snow. i trust the more stable senior members in here so i wont be getting the pram and the toys out, its always the same in the run upto a cold spell in the UK we get these runs that have folk jumping off a cliff only to be back the next day saying oh lovely charts winters naileded on now. come guys and girls calm down a bit eh..

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Mild hunt..anti cold thread..in requirement!!..

The basis bullseye lp-is a route to further relax of height...yes..also indicative of modeled miss-match..through major ops..

The block format=having the strength and edge carved off...

Classic miss modeling..

A sterner format likely to nose up■■■..

As modeling evolves!!.

Over 2 the ecm!!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed, feb...some places NORTH OF THE M4 CORRIDOR would see quite a dumping!

Netweather GFS Image

The GFS doesn't show a great deal of precip to be fair - definitely not a dumping.

A snow to rain event for the Southwest if taken at face value. All academic at this range, of course.

viewimage.thumb.png.c32226153a553edb61380cb55492b318.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Can anyone tell me what the best thing about the 12z is though? - it hasn't been mentioned yet.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Think posters are reading what they want to read.

NO ONE said anything was "over". Also it's entirely correct proper here to point out the UK Met outlook as well as other models regardless of anyone else' bias one way or another.

Posters should be able to give their opinions on the models without getting hopped on by a mob.

GFS has a somewhat better evolution for coldies.

A lot of focus on the ECM this evening now.

 

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Can anyone tell me what the best thing about the 12z is though? - it hasn't been mentioned yet.

Heights transfer to Greenland but that's just my opinion. 

Southery tracking jet is also notable 

Edited by frosty ground
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, frosty ground said:

Height transfer to Greenland but that's just my opinion. 

Yes, although i was looking at a bit higher up in the atmosphere but its all connected.

gfsnh-10-324_nqv6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, although i was looking at a bit higher up in the atmosphere but its all connected.

gfsnh-10-324_nqv6.png

the much fabled early Canadian warming , can it happen ?

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Posted
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, cold snowy winters, thunderstorms
  • Location: Cowbridge, Wales (105m ASL)

Does anyone have the snow depth charts for these latest runs? 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

12z GFS following what GP said earlier, perhaps a little too soon as he said, but it’s definitely cottoned on

3D2115EA-9747-4EAB-97E8-25639E0F7AE0.png

Yes lovely stuff, we go from the Scandi high to the Greenland high for phase two of what hopefully will be a prolonged cold spell up to the big day on the 25th.:ball-santa-emoji::cold:

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