The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

It just SCREAMS POTENTIAL and ALL THE BUILDING BLOCKS ARE IN PLACE but we might NEED ANOTHER BITE OF THE CHERRY because it is SQUEAKY BUM TIME for the MARGINAL UPPERS. Did I use enough NW cliches there?

Need more runs

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

It just SCREAMS POTENTIAL and ALL THE BUILDING BLOCKS ARE IN PLACE but we might NEED ANOTHER BITE OF THE CHERRY because it is SQUEAKY BUM TIME for the MARGINAL UPPERS. Did I use enough NW cliches there?

  You missed T240 WHERE THE POLAR EXPRESS lives

[bluearmy]

Ukmo day 5 looks a little better than the 00z did 

[bluearmy]

We need the banter thread back ......

[winterof79]

9 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

It just SCREAMS POTENTIAL and ALL THE BUILDING BLOCKS ARE IN PLACE but we might NEED ANOTHER BITE OF THE CHERRY because it is SQUEAKY BUM TIME for the MARGINAL UPPERS. Did I use enough NW cliches there?

Yes quite enough,you've SPOILERED us for choice there.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Yes quite enough,you've SPOILERED us for choice there.

I think we should leave it there...Just a short wave?

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think we should leave it there...Just a short wave?

Yes I'll sink away into the back ground.

[frosty ground]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We need the banter thread back ......

Then some actual banter to go in it 

[The Eagle]

UKMO says no

Fine margins...

Edited December 4, 2018 by The Eagle

[Weathizard]

Sorry for the rough screenshot but mildly annoying worried about th GFS 12z making more of this low

Edited December 4, 2018 by Weathizard

[Spanish Dani]

Just now, The Eagle said:

UKMO says no

Yes Atlantic going to go over the High there by the day 7 but I don't think we see that till later..

[booferking]

Just now, The Eagle said:

UKMO says no

Lol the slayer strikes goodbye easterly

[Johnp]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ukmo day 5 looks a little better than the 00z did 

Day six doesn't look great to me, but I didn't see the 00z to compare.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO and ICON 12z both developing a low west of Iceland. Running ICON on it brings in slightly milder air

[Met4Cast]

This is a funny old place sometimes. Far too many people are reactive from single model runs, too eager to post about how an entire month can be written off at the drop of a 6z run. 

Blast, Bluearmy, myself, GP, Steve and I'm sure a few others have been consistently posting about the development of a Scandi ridge for a couple of weeks, long before the models showed it. Whilst some posters were posting zonal charts saying "no cold, it's not going to happen look at this zonal chart" we sat by waiting and finally, the models are showing what we expected to see, Scandi ridging and potential colder weather.

Now that it's here, those same zonal people are still trying to find reasons that it wont happen, "The Met don't mention it" "the ICON is rubbish" etc. It's strange, really. 

UKMO day 6, cold air flooding into Europe as the ridge of high pressure moves North.

All gravy so far..

[frosty ground]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Sorry for the rough screenshot but mildly annoying worried about th GFS 12z making more of this low, sorry for the rough screenshot.

Been on a few runs in different forms and the GFS P 

[Met4Cast]

GFS a little more amplified at 144 compared to the 6z.

Could be a better run coming up here. A deeper trough coming out of Newfoundland can amplify the ridge more in certain circumstances, as long as the jet curves round and doesn't just blast through (which isn't happening here) we're good!

Edited December 4, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

This is a funny old place sometimes. Far too many people are reactive from single model runs, too eager to post about how an entire month can be written off at the drop of a 6z run. 

Blast, Bluearmy, myself, GP, Steve and I'm sure a few others have been consistently posting about the development of a Scandi ridge for a couple of weeks, long before the models showed it. Whilst some posters were posting zonal charts saying "no cold, it's not going to happen look at this zonal chart" we sat by waiting and finally, the models are showing what we expected to see, Scandi ridging and potential colder weather.

Now that it's here, those same zonal people are still trying to find reasons that it wont happen, "The Met don't mention it" "the ICON is rubbish" etc. It's strange, really. 

UKMO day 6, cold air flooding into Europe as the ridge of high pressure moves North.

All gravy so far..

Gfs lining up a belter..

and yes the knee jerking is becoming ######### !!.

The height aligns will dilly dally..

As expected...some ridiculous quota..@times.

[lassie23]

19 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

It just SCREAMS POTENTIAL and ALL THE BUILDING BLOCKS ARE IN PLACE but we might NEED ANOTHER BITE OF THE CHERRY because it is SQUEAKY BUM TIME for the MARGINAL UPPERS. Did I use enough NW cliches there?

You missed out THAT CHART IS A THING OF BEAUTY

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

UKMO says no

Fine margins...

Game over for an Easterly there, for sure. i think we'll end up with a half way house UK high. Not a great start to the 12s and again highlighting why we need to get inside T+120 before getting excited when it comes to Easterlies.

[Spanish Dani]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO and ICON 12z both developing a low west of Iceland. Running ICON on it brings in slightly milder air

Yes they have the same feature so would be the same bad outcome I guess..

[TSNWK]

Two polar opposite remarks in regard to UK144 - one poor with a local view and one  positive with the wider view - confused.com

 

[Methuselah]

Wintryness incoming @ T+120!

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Two polar opposite remarks in regard to UK144 - one poor with a local view and one  positive with the wider view - confused.com

 

No one knows what the model will show day 7/8 because

a) day 7 isn’t out for hours and we see very little of it

b) day 8 doesn’t exist on the model !

[Weathizard]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

GFS a little more amplified at 144 compared to the 6z.

Could be a better run coming up here. A deeper trough coming out of Newfoundland can amplify the ridge more in certain circumstances, as long as the jet curves round and doesn't just blast through (which isn't happening here) we're good!

That’s 114 just to correct! The GFS and UKMO categorically at war with the 12z run, the one model I always hate not having on board is the UKMO as it’s often and irritatingly right when you don’t want it to be and wrong when you want it to be right.

Intruiging times, here is the correct GFS day 6 chart compared to the UKM, UKM clearly has too much energy going over.