The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Spanish Dani]

30 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

From gp post earlier they might change soon hopefully

I'm sure they have more data then someone posting on here, with respect to the 'GP' of course ..!

[inghams85]

4 minutes ago, Spanish Dani said:

I'm sure they have more data then someone posting on here, with respect to the 'GP' of course ..!

Do you have any idea who he is and what he does? Clearly not

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Spanish Dani said:

I'm sure they have more data then someone posting on here, with respect to the 'GP' of course ..!

They have all the data in the world but they cannot forecast based on gut feeling and amateur model watching experience (obviously they use their professional experience)  - otherwise they would have seen next weeks scandi ridge like some of us did .......

Edited December 4, 2018 by bluearmy

[Spanish Dani]

6 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Do you have any idea who he is and what he does? Clearly not

I think he seems to be knowlegable amateur like lot of others 

[inghams85]

4 minutes ago, Spanish Dani said:

I think he seems to be knowlegable amateur like lot of others 

He's a bit more than that but it's not my place to say. Let's just say he makes a living out of meteorology 

[SMU]

5 minutes ago, Spanish Dani said:

I think he seems to be knowlegable amateur like lot of others 

There is no crystal ball im afraid-

What we have is the Met office responding to their Glosea model in a considered fashion - see IF tweet to me below

Hes clear that the document is lagged in production -

What you have on here are people responding to real time data & interpreting this into forecasts - with  obviously no repercussion if it goes wrong -

The fact that the met office are tentative in their move to cold is very good news....

I think at this point as highlighted by many of us for a long while is the best possible position heading into any winter since 2009/10.

 

S

[johnholmes]

Just getting round to adding my comments for the 6-14 day period, as usual, based on the upper air products, the 500 mb anomaly charts.

These are from my daily notes made this morning

So how are things shaping up over the past couple of days?

Ec-gfs shows the European ridging as the dominant factor as it builds ridging and +ve heights towards n Norway and extending west towards Iceland/Greenland with both showing a cut off low over Europe and into the eastern med and the western trough around 40 w with the uk in almost no flow between the two, if anything a flow from out of the cut off low to the east

Noaa last evening showed ridging similar to to ec-gfs re contours but with the c of g of +ve heights still just sw of the uk; by its 8-14 this had shifted to n Norway with the uk going from ridging on the 6-10 to a fairly slack s of west flow from a rounded trough s of Greenland.

Overall to me the anomaly charts have not given sound advice over the past 3-5 days. I am still unsure what is going to happen beyond 5-8 days from now? A colder spells developing seems pretty certain but for how long seems unclear to me this morning. Also the probability in the 5-8 day frame of any of the white stuff falling let alone settling, at least for lower ground, seems even more problematical.

the usual links

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[pdiddy]

4 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

He's a bit more than that but it's not my place to say. Let's just say he makes a living out of meteorology 

so does Piers Corbyn... it's a forecast, same as any other. May be right, may be wrong.

Meanwhile, looking like height rises pushing North and lots of options thereafter.  Too early to tell whether we will get the retrogression being suggested, I think.

[Chertseystreamer79]

38 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The extended Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks colder than last night's 12z, especially further north..really hoping support grows for a cold run up to..and including christmas!

Glad to see you back frosty!

[ArHu3]

10 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

so does Piers Corbyn... it's a forecast, same as any other. May be right, may be wrong.

Meanwhile, looking like height rises pushing North and lots of options thereafter.  Too early to tell whether we will get the retrogression being suggested, I think.

It also means he has access to much more data than us, full access to EC's data costs hundreds of thousands of euros per year, then there are the UK met models... 

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

so does Piers Corbyn... it's a forecast, same as any other. May be right, may be wrong.

Meanwhile, looking like height rises pushing North and lots of options thereafter.  Too early to tell whether we will get the retrogression being suggested, I think.

And that Morgan woman makes a living out of chatting with rotted corpses...

I'll take an Earth-/model-based presentation, whose methodology is clearly explained and open to legitimate critique, over an occultist pile of obfuscatory gobbledegook, any day...

Edited December 4, 2018 by Ed Stone

[phil nw.]

Although the mean charts suggest the Atlantic making another move around day 10 as i posted in the other thread i think there is much to ponder beyond.

Looking at the later ECM clusters they quickly jump to 6 as we go to the back end of week 2- just beyond the suggestion of the Scandi.ridge weakening.

Clustering showing any number of scenarios some re-enforcing heights to the ne,others heights to the south and then another further amplification in the Atlantic with a UK trough.

A look at the London temperature ens sort of underlines the large range of uncertainty once we get to the ridge building around day 7.

There  are any number ways forward as highlighted in those clusters.I  think it's safe to say we will get the High building towards Scandinavia now but the question is if the Atlantic makes inroads beyond day 10 as shown in the mean charts will it last for long?

For the time being Blue i think i might join you on the fence.

[weathergeek]

Meto update still suggesting a possible return to milder after a cold (wintry showers) snap next week. Do we think this ties in with the potential for the Atlantic to fire up between said cold spell and the trop result of the SSW as has been suggested on here? Or could it be that they're just still playing cautious whilst waiting for models to firm up?

[Tim Bland]

33 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

He's a bit more than that but it's not my place to say. Let's just say he makes a living out of meteorology 

I don’t thinks it’s top secret, a 10 second search of Google comes up with this http://centaureaweather.com/

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Nice to see the initial northerly is a wee bit more potent, on this run...Even some southern (close to eastern coasts) parts might see something a tad wintry...?

 

Indeed Pete, as I’ve going on about recently, I think there’ll be snow to be had by this weekend mot currently forecast.  It become forecast soon as colder than thought air will dog South quickly.

#winter of discontent

 

BFTP

[bluearmy]

27 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

For the time being Blue i think i might join you on the fence.

No problem Phil - better bring a coat though ........ just in case

[Catacol]

7 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

You're right, I was in a hurry. Anyway, not that discussing this changes anything but I think that displacements are more often than not unfavorable for us and we need an actual split. In the stratosphere thread catacol explains why displacements often can be unfavorable 

 

 

Hmm - not quite the message of my post to be honest. However I agree that a split is better than a displacement, and I did go on to state that I dont think a disconnected displacement event is where we may be headed this year!

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

There is no crystal ball im afraid-

What we have is the Met office responding to their Glosea model in a considered fashion - see IF tweet to me below

Hes clear that the document is lagged in production -

What you have on here are people responding to real time data & interpreting this into forecasts - with  obviously no repercussion if it goes wrong -

The fact that the met office are tentative in their move to cold is very good news....

I think at this point as highlighted by many of us for a long while is the best possible position heading into any winter since 2009/10.

 

S

I agree. Always read between the lines when it comes to MetO commentary - and a whole row of dominos are now falling into place and forum heavyweights making their thoughts clear.....

EPS remains on course....

[carinthian]

6 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, basically the big three models operational runs in agreement at 144t, with possibly ECM run showing the sharpest of the ridging  over the British Isles.  The UKMO looks like the least favourable at this stage with a possible delay to draw in the colder Easterly flow. Maybe the Atlantic spurning a short wave into the equation in the period 144-168T. The ensemble runs not as good this morning in the longer term from GFS and ECM. That just my view on things at the moment, so none the wiser if a sustained cold well will evolve . Will get an update from the team over here later this morning to see what their model is showing.  A  very frustrating but sure we will know better by the end of today.

C

Had an interesting chat with the forecast team earlier. Basically the same and that is for high pressure to be NE of the British Isles during period 192-240T and formation of upper low over the continent to possibly move westwards towards Souther Britain. They think this 2nd attempt of cold from the east will be a bit more robust than the first one a few weeks ago but expect it to be repelled again for a few days. However, their longer term charts now indicate a 3rd and more potent attempt to bring cold down from the Arctic the week before Christmas. Now that's exciting . Third time lucky , but colder scenario is the theme for the outlook.

C

[bluearmy]

Icon finally finds the amplification but places it a bit too far to the east .....

[frosty ground]

Icon now builds heights to the north east, not great for the UK but the lat few runs had no heights build

[The Eagle]

If it's not going to be the synoptics that disappoint it might be lack of real depth to the cold air we would be tapping...

 

[Methuselah]

12Z's a belter @ T+24!

[Deep Snow please]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

12Z's a belter @ T+24!

Mad isn't it?

 

 

[Seasonality]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

12Z's a belter @ T+24!

It just SCREAMS POTENTIAL and ALL THE BUILDING BLOCKS ARE IN PLACE but we might NEED ANOTHER BITE OF THE CHERRY because it is SQUEAKY BUM TIME for the MARGINAL UPPERS. Did I use enough NW cliches there?