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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Para  at 210z  under cutting low

gfsnh-0-204.png?6

But fails to disrupt ese effectively which brings the less cold air north - high risk = high reward 

fwiw, I think this gfsp in the day 9/11 period currently portrays where the most likely route forward sits 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But fails to disrupt ese effectively which brings the less cold air north - high risk = high reward 

fwiw, I think this gfsp in the day 9/11 period currently portrays where the most likely route forward sits 

Does it give any meaningfull snowfall though before the milder air comees in!

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But fails to disrupt ese effectively which brings the less cold air north - high risk = high reward 

fwiw, I think this gfsp in the day 9/11 period currently portrays where the most likely route forward sits 

Indeed  i love sliders  neigh on impossible to call even a few hours before the event    but they certainly pay off if its perfect.  

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Significantly bigger signal for Atlantic / greenland heights in deep FI on the GEFS 06z suite than on previous runs at the end of the run.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Nice to see the initial northerly is a wee bit more potent, on this run...Even some southern (close to eastern coasts) parts might see something a tad wintry...?

Netweather GFS Image

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Significantly bigger signal for Atlantic / greenland heights in deep FI on the GEFS 06z suite than on previous runs at the end of the run.

Thats interesting Feb..

And potentially very good news..

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

At times like this wish we still had Fergies inside knowledge. Glosea and Mogreps must be intresing to see at present. Hard not to get hyped when all signs are showing deep cold towards end of December and January.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

By day 8 around 12 of the GEFS ENS support the Op with a block in some form to our North /NE so not too bad. By day 13 I only make it around 6-8 interesting charts . All FI but for this run a shorter colder spell still looks most likely, obviously this set up will change every run. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats interesting Feb..

And potentially very good news..

 

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

And fits with extended eps 

And sort of in line with Stewart's thinking as well although maybe a little earlier.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

And sort of in line with Stewart's thinking as well although maybe a little earlier.

He did say the evolution is likely to be slower than the models may see it initially ...

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Strengthening signs for a more resilient block, somewhere in the Gricelandavia region...?

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's the beauty of the weather, coldie...Though people and models are, to varying extents, always flapping in the wind, the evolution of the weather itself is 'set in stone'. If it weren't, and we were not in a deterministic universe (quantum effects notwithstanding) numerical weather-prediction devices simply wouldn't work..

ummm - Chaos Theory? Not sure if you are being ironic - if so, apologies - I am a little' emoji-autistic'.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
33 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

ummm - Chaos Theory? Not sure if you are being ironic - if so, apologies - I am a little' emoji-autistic'.

No irony at all, Dev...it's just that, of all the conceivable sets of starting-conditions available, the weather always 'starts' with a perfect set...THE perfect set...?

Resistance is futile!?:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

More signs from the latest models indicating some wintry weather on the way next week in the run up to christmas which is great to see!..hopefully the met office extended outlook will change as they are still adamant about a milder unsettled spell towards / during the festive period.

From gp post earlier they might change soon hopefully

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

More signs from the latest models indicating some wintry weather on the way next week in the run up to christmas which is great to see!..hopefully the met office extended outlook will change as they are still adamant about a milder unsettled spell towards / during the festive period.

'we may see'

'a lot of uncertainty'

 

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