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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Nitty gritty time fast approaching on 6Z...

Placement of the block -(assuming we get one) will be crucial longer term as it will have an effect on the Atlantic lows waiting in the wings...

Dont want to see the block sinking SE and the jet coming over, although with events in the strat looking good i don't think it would be a sustained assault anyway..

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
12 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

EC 45 dayer shows marked drop in AO forecast second week of January to -2SD (mean), commencing in trend 26th December. Wonder what's driving that then ? Consistency with GLOSEA on stratospheric forecast.

NAO forecasts not as negative, but worth pointing out that a Scandinavian block is not well represented within that index. FWIW, thinking would be for the NAO to move in concert with the AO here as pressure will likely be anomalously low in the Atlantic.

And trends towards the seasonal winter modelling by week 6

i will post the weather bell seasonal model output in the winter thread - been consistent for months and ec46 certainly trending that way 

all looking very interesting indeed 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

And trends towards the seasonal winter modelling by week 6

i will post the weather bell seasonal model output in the winter thread - been consistent for months and ec46 certainly trending that way 

all looking very interesting indeed 

So is 6Z in the short term Blue, looks sharper and amplified by 120- showers turning to snow in Northern Scotland i would suggest as air originated from way north moves in..

PS excellent news about weather bell.joins Glosea i suspect..

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Coopsy Accomplished

Coopsy

Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

So is 6Z in the short term Blue, looks sharper and amplified by 120- showers turning to snow in Northern Scotland i would suggest as air originated from way north moves in..

PS excellent news about weather bell.joins Glosea i suspect..

-10's knocking on northern Scotland's door by 126...

Edited by c00ps
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, c00ps said:

-10's knocking on Scotland's door by 126...

Yup- i'd suggest some parts in North Scotland will be be white come sunday morning- saturday night first busy night of the season in the Scottish thread if 6Z is right..

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

So is 6Z in the short term Blue, looks sharper and amplified by 120- showers turning to snow in Northern Scotland i would suggest as air originated from way north moves in..

PS excellent news about weather bell.joins Glosea i suspect..

No idea re glosea - think that’s quite back winter loaded from what I’ve read 

 

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Stormyking Rising Star

Stormyking

Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

So is 6Z in the short term Blue, looks sharper and amplified by 120- showers turning to snow in Northern Scotland i would suggest as air originated from way north moves in..

PS excellent news about weather bell.joins Glosea i suspect..

Was going to say as well it looks a bit more amplified already on this 6z run, quite liking the run so far

Can tell quite clear at 132  

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No idea re glosea - think that’s quite back winter loaded from what I’ve read 

 

There'll be another one out in just under a weeks time so we'll be able to see how things are trending trop-surface wise.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

No idea re glosea - think that’s quite back winter loaded from what I’ve read 

 

I'm guessing with Exeter now suggesting a colder than average winter Glosea is seeing 'developments' in the stratosphere ..

Blinkin WZ stuck again at 123 hrs!

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Coopsy Accomplished

Coopsy

Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup- i'd suggest some parts in North Scotland will be be white come sunday morning- saturday night first busy night of the season in the Scottish thread if 6Z is right..

Its looking that way and quite progressive movement with -5 down to south east corner by 129

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Jonathan Rhodri Roberts Enthusiast

Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

-8 850's over large parts of the UK and -9s moving in from the east whilst the Atlantic tries to nudge in which screams the potential for battleground / frontal snowfalls to me and still some snow showers coming from the E probably (does anybody have a link to the ECM precip charts, thought I had it bookmarked but must have lost it, cheers in advance) 

ECU0-216.thumb.gif.61c391b5754a75cd8b2c5fc057d1a1f9.gifECU1-216.thumb.gif.43a239b34b57a2a55744a01a29091caf.gif tempresult_uhz2.thumb.gif.0ef7b47e724cc4d7927252700927cae2.gif

 

Could get a snow to rain event in southwest Wales if things fall into place with these charts. Ok the snow probably wouldn't last long on the ground before the rain washes/melts it away but nevertheless it would be nice to watch  

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Danielvn Contributor

Danielvn

Posted
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
  • Location: North Wales Riviera
Posted
58 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

Remind me; is this thread about the hunt for cold or the extremely persistent and wide-ranging hunt for mild?!

You make a good point, but it's also not about ignoring reality, if you want that then go on the Exactaweather facebook group!

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Interesting that the low is being kept further away and encouraging the ridge to be stronger?  Going to be fun viewing this output

C842EC63-DB0C-4368-8730-7F2982589E6F.png

Edited by That ECM
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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted (edited)

gfs-1-186.png?6

Not as cold over the UK but colder over Scandi. than the 0z run

I'm talking about upper air temps not ground level, as ICE above shows it's gonna feel cold.
gfs-0-192.png?6

it's not really a scanid high either

Edited by frosty ground
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Stormyking Rising Star

Stormyking

Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
Posted

Thinking this run might be better again slight with heights to the North by 192/198 look slight further West over Iceland and slightly closer to Greenland.

Also liking the look of the undercutting 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

Not bad. Not bad at all!

Netweather GFS Image

As an aside, we had snow here (this time last year) on a NE wind, with uppers of only -4C...

Edited by Ed Stone
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Well if you want  nice seasonal weather in the run up to Christmas you will love GFS 6z , its dry cold / frosty ...

Personally i'd take that run right now if offered it..

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

6z allows cold air to filter SE of the high due to low heights, previous runs have it connecting with the high over Russia. Much better 6z with some real cold uppers and better angle of attack from the Atlantic.

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not bad. Not bad at all!

Netweather GFS Image

Yes much colder air to our north east on this run, snow streamers moving in from the east coast by D9, not rain.:oldgood:

gfs-2-216.png

gfs-2-222.png

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