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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland

Be interesting to see if GFS para follows the script..... does anyone feel spoiled having GFS running two models at present until the newer version takes over?....to me it is like going shopping for a new coat, and getting two for the price of one

Hopefully we will all need 2 coats to keep warm next week, if ECM and GFS are on right track......

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Feb any news on GEFS?

An upgrade - sharper ridging on the mean + see CC's post as well - havent been through individuals yet - too early in the run for that.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

An upgrade - sharper ridging on the mean + see CC's post as well - havent been through individuals yet - too early in the run for that.

Would like to see a flip from the 12z set..

I think we can say with a degree of confidence the change is coming..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl

That GFS Blizzard at 288 fits with my long term thinking regards HAARP and Bilderberg for this winter. Good to see the weather bomb being built, things are certainly not in the right place for them to desire normality this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Much improved mean there at T180 as compared to the 12z, -4c hpa air now as far west as Wales.

gens-21-0-180-1.png

gens-21-0-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Come on guys, the box that we click in says “ reply to this topic” which is not, what month do I like my snow? Which being a coldie, is any. somepoor mod has got a lot of deleting to do, including this one

Put it this way, anymore posts regarding people’s favourite month for snow and they will get run through our lovely shredder! 

We would hate having to use it, as we have had so many problems with the shredder getting jammed up by off-topic posts in here before.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Good grief. The GFS 18z is having a lock in. What a way to end the day.

The icing on the cake is the stratosphere (the state of it). We may, just may, be heading towards a December SSW. A rare event nowadays.

Mid strat vortex looking all at sea after a good couple of weeks of being pushed, shoved and booted around.

84B747EE-0C40-4FE1-8B7C-CAC42156924A.thumb.gif.165be16d4bedf5ef5508d60598400157.gifA53CE3C6-6469-4F8E-82A9-2F2598826F1C.thumb.gif.519070a8a26cae40afe356bf361ea704.gif

 

(Para taking a different route. Let’s see where this ends up...)

 

Yes, you can see that the warmings are now wanting to turn their attention towards attempting to strike the heart of the vortex more than we have been seeing

gensnh-21-7-216.png

You can clearly see the pressure now being ramped up on the above chart. The first one looks like a strong displacement event, but the follow up that has been showing at the back end of recent GFS runs looks like it could try to deliver a killer blow.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
11 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

That GFS Blizzard at 288 fits with my long term thinking regards HAARP and Bilderberg for this winter. Good to see the weather bomb being built, things are certainly not in the right place for them to desire normality this winter.

Take it you wrote this for the craic?

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Take it you wrote this for the craic?

Nope head over the Winter 2018 thread to see my full explanation. I've been hesitant posting my thoughts until we had model confirmation of the direction of travel. Bilderberg are switching the buttons ready for the weather bomb.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, you can see that the warmings are now wanting to turn their attention towards attempting to strike the heart of the vortex more than we have been seeing

gensnh-21-7-216.png

You can clearly see the pressure now being ramped up on the above chart. The first one looks like a strong displacement event, but the follow up that has been showing at the back end of recent GFS runs looks like it could try to deliver a killer blow.

I am not very knowledgeable when it comes to the stratosphere but this from P5 looks tasty and hopefully could lead to a knockout punch for the PV  (yes its FI but  it is a growing trend among the ensembles and main GFS runs)

gensnh-5-7-384.thumb.png.e4f103524357fa4e3d64a8d93804d241.png

a few other ensemble members with some sort of warming in that area at the same time frame

gensnh-10-7-384.thumb.png.96d78fef3f3cc856c2e8d63a126c5db1.pnggensnh-13-7-384.thumb.png.0a64afac97ecc08bb765d3ddb3205ecc.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

GFS at last joining in the party. And many of those on the fence, may well have fallen off it tonight !  No offence!

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
5 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I'm certain we are not imagining this, happens every year.  If there is a genuine bias I expect it can only come from data being collected at genuinely different times of day as input for the two suites.

Totally agree, noticed for number of years in Winter, the early morning 0z and 6z runs are quite depressive for folks to start the day, only for afternoon and evening runs to provide solice.

Quite bizarre, never was believer of data conspiracies but defo a trend.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
16 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Totally agree, noticed for number of years in Winter, the early morning 0z and 6z runs are quite depressive for folks to start the day, only for afternoon and evening runs to provide solice.

Quite bizarre, never was believer of data conspiracies but defo a trend.

I think the biggest switches can occur on the 0z saturday and monday, i dont necessarily think its always an upgrade in the afternoon and downgrade in the morning either, it can be vice versa but changes do happen, and also John Holmes sometimes says you're better off picking one run per day and sticking to it so it cant just be as simple as the newest data always been more accurate.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

UKMO holding steady though, perhaps not quite as good as yesterday evening but not complaining

UN144-21.GIF?04-05

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

UKMO holding steady though, perhaps not quite as good as yesterday evening but not complaining

UN144-21.GIF?04-05

It really is all or nothing with this set up.

Either the troughing overwhelms everything and the jet piles over the top of any block, or we get enough initial amplification to set up the block.

Either way, even the ICON isn't a travesty in the grand scheme of things as it has significant Siberian ridging- a key factor across all suites. Should help set up some fun and games later on in the month regardless what happens now. This is just a bonus.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

LOL GFS loves a shortwave, three in a row on Western flank of the Atlantic ridge

gfsnh-0-132.png

 

144 I would take the clean and sharp UKMO over this but looks like it will have another go

gfsnh-0-144.png

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
24 minutes ago, Mucka said:

LOL GFS loves a shortwave, three in a row on Western flank of the Atlantic ridge

gfsnh-0-132.png

 

144 I would take the clean and sharp UKMO over this but looks like it will have another go

gfsnh-0-144.png

It gets there in the end

gfsnh-0-210.png?0

This isn't going to be plain sailing however...the GEM goes awry with the pattern

gemnh-0-192.png?00

 

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

Mixed bag this morning. We know its not going to be plain sailing and we will get variations on the theme on each model but just look at the PV eventually things will fall into place i think the first scandi high attempt will fail but willl be precurser to the next attempt as the strat warming starts to take effect as shown by Crewecold. I am off to the bookies today to put a tenner on a White Christmas. From the 12th onwards things starting to look intresting. Also great to see Frosty back lets hope he is our lucky charm.

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