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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

I'm not going to watch EC, i feel i might be a curse lol.

Joking aside its fascinating model watching, UKMO looks identical to GEM at 144 and 'up she goes' springs to mind..

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
4 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

The real interest lies in the final week of December into January given the stratospheric vortex will be under intense pressure and may well have collapsed. Synthesising the GWO attracted to a phase 6-7 evolution suggests a proper episode of Greenland blocking (and more identifiably from the composites distinctive -ve height anomaly in the North Atlantic) and impacts of the strat warming being overlaid with that pattern.

1508976804_janphase6.thumb.gif.fab647e32ba452723a07ff35c6a11130.gif791861883_janphase7.thumb.gif.460923f2ddf98c6d5bd2d030e3eb9f4c.gif

 

Completely agree RE time scales

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds

Meteociel NH view ECM 144. For anyone who prefers this way

C3FA2E71-850F-45BE-B9C6-D96E47A70F66.png

And the 168

6C74C474-63D6-4BE2-91EA-E05FB447C846.png

Edited by Decemberof2010
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

ECM T168 is brilliant...sorry cant post chart.:clap:

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

T168 850 chart, pretty similar to the FV3.

Edit: but with less cold in Europe.

 

ECH0-168.png

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168, builds a cracking block. And this is only a week away now

image.thumb.jpg.598f33c5a17241ba1472fd66c5dbe1b8.jpg

Caution: 7 days is still FI, but that's a lovely chart!

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, Stuie W said:

T168 850 chart, pretty similar to the FV3.

 

ECH0-168.png

Its better than FV3.

Well done ECM and UKMO for consistency, 10/10!

Long may it continue.:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

So now battle is joined between the Euros and the rest.

JMA siding with GFS

JN192-21.GIF?03-12

I'm pretty sure most would go with ECM and UKMO at 144/168 and so would I but clearly nothing is cut and dried.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

So now battle is joined between the Euros and the rest.

JMA siding with GFS

JN192-21.GIF?03-12

I'm pretty sure most would go with ECM and UKMO at 144/168 and so would I but clearly nothing is cut and dried.

Very true, Mucka, Dec 9th is will I ridge or will I throw this forum into I told you so.

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

It is indeed although its the 192!

Unfortunately but hopefully we can get it to 0h! Oh well I can dream!  

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