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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS now chasing an undercutting scenario with much better placement of the atlantic low- 

0C70C1C3-6D8F-4592-A91E-4764486EBAB7.thumb.png.d55b791627af6b6ce547b1aa31097412.png

What is the date/time of that Steve - cannot see from image.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Yep a very nice evolution on the GFS 6z looking very nice here at T 231. 

 

 

B0E23D6B-22E5-45FA-BAE6-D73A864FF2F1.png

DB49734E-CB56-40C1-8A42-3A69A778B92E.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
Just now, Weathizard said:

Undercutting at day 9/10, as usual. 

Thanks - so a good lead time for that to be finessed to ideal outcome.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GFS shuffles over to EC !!

And as above, the strat charts look great again with the core PV kicked off its Greenland perch over to Scandy..

* Trying hard to keep the ramp in the closet but its becoming harder and harder..

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Clusters say day 8 is where the uncertainty really kicks in - need to keep the ship steady for another 36 hours .....

For sure...

Its getting quite exciting Blue

GP's post in the strat thread quite an eye opener..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

^ Yes, we've now got to the point that 2/21 of the GEFS are  showing a technical SSW by 19 Dec, this needs watching!

u_60N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.765580c9a71ed314329a160e01195823.png

Interesting,.that would be very early indeed for an SSW, Where do you get this from? I can't find it

I always thought Hannah tends to use 65 deg N. 60N is of course correct in terms of it being an offical SSW.

Latest ECM running a bit higher at around 35 m/s at D10

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

06z far better run, just been looking through the ensembles, very much an upgrade compared to 00z. Sorry can't post any charts right now.

 

I thought they looked better frosty on the whole, the mean is an improvement, with a few dodgy members as usual.

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Looks like the GFS ensembles at day 8/9 are growing in support for an attempt at a true Scandi high, pressure has lowered over the continent, and the Atlantic is a trying to barrel in but is being thwarted. 

To be honest even if noting comes of it at least we have something to chase, things looked dreadful and zonal a few days ago.

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Posted
  • Location: London & Valladolid
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Cold
  • Location: London & Valladolid
8 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gens-10-1-240.png

Member 10 shows us what happens when we get to much energy to our north!

Ensembles not looking that great with 3 in 4 clappsing the high and the rest only a few showing anything like the operation.

Yes that would be a tough situation to change.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS shuffles over to EC !!

And as above, the strat charts look great again with the core PV kicked off its Greenland perch over to Scandy..

* Trying hard to keep the ramp in the closet but its becoming harder and harder..

I won’t be coming out of the closet ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

What a difference a low makes...

Netweather GFS Image

850s for Suffolk:

GEFS Ensembles Chart

Edited by Ed Stone
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