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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

High pressure right from the Atlantic across the UK across the Mildish North Sea across Norway into deep northern Russia at around 1044mb 

Weak Icelandic lows 

Weak low Azores 

March on High pressure what's stopping you.

18121218_0218.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Serious consistency wrt strat modelling.

It's being rounded on good and proper by the end of the run...you wouldn't expect too much mileage left in the vortex if we got to that point...

gfsnh-10-384.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Serious consistency wrt strat modelling.

Core PV at 10Hpa being pushed well away from Greenland/Canada on 18z,can only be good news ..

I have a feeling GFS is considering placing the core cold across scandy long term..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Sorry for being a pedant Purga, but I think northerly winds veer northeast...?

Quite right Ed ! Veery well spotted....

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Core PV at 10Hpa being pushed well away from Greenland/Canada on 18z,can only be good news ..

And pretty much most other levels as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

And pretty much most other levels as well.

Its quite fascinating .. GFS certainly keen on these developments ..

Got me thinking about Atlantic height rises long term..

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

EC clusters say... maybe 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018120212_192.

Would need clusters 2 or 4 to be right (preferably 4)

Interestingly the control cluster, which didn't look great at D8, looks like a potential easterly at D12 while the others have let westerlies back in

 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018120212_288.

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

One consistent theme that is currently occurring in the GFS ops (that others have also mentioned above)

All are relocating the PV out of Canada towards the end of the runs.

GFS 18z would be lovely too. High pressure, cold and mainly dry later on. Would make a nice change. 

Hopefully the 00z continue with the general theme but with a bit more amplification overall like the GFS 12z op.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

All the warning signs are there (and have been for a number of weeks) that we're about to enter the freezer good and proper in a few weeks time. We look to be building the foundations of a potentially severe spell of winter weather...possibly at the coldest part of the winter. The strat vortex looks toast in the longer term too.

All in my humble opinion of course.

I don't think it's hyperbole. As you say, the building blocks are in place, we just need a bit of fortune, then bingo!!!!

Time will tell, but I suspect some seriously top drawer model watching is about to unfold over the next few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Encouraging to see both the ECM and GFS end up at roughly the same place by day 10 although they take a slightly different route to get there.

Its really events over the ne USA and east Canada that help split the energy to the west of the UK, this allows the high to extend further north and towards Scandi .

Thats around day 8 onwards so by no means certain yet. 

Hopefully this does land and later the models retrogress the high with a northerly in the run up to Christmas .

Not too much to ask ......

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

If I see a return to wet westerly weather in the runs in the next 24hrs

I'm going to stamp my feet slam the doors grab my ball and take it home 

I'm not playing now.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

GEFS 18z  say a big yes to a definite Easterly but probably not a frigid uppers one.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

FV3 18z getting in on the act, here T222

image.thumb.jpg.4faeed2dceaf62f6213d1f3aa85a1ce1.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.8459a4bb667ef808c69e028ecdfa3343.jpg

The only way is cold, towards mid month, the freezer beckons, as some of us have been saying for a while now...

With a Mildish North Sea too mike that could be interesting 

I'd like to see what the precip charts show this time next week at T72 hr

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Where is that low in the Atlantic going though?

Hopefully phase with the Scandi troughing like in the 18z GFS op.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
32 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Encouraging to see both the ECM and GFS end up at roughly the same place by day 10 although they take a slightly different route to get there.

Its really events over the ne USA and east Canada that help split the energy to the west of the UK, this allows the high to extend further north and towards Scandi .

Thats around day 8 onwards so by no means certain yet. 

Hopefully this does land and later the models retrogress the high with a northerly in the run up to Christmas .

Not too much to ask ......

 

dont see the the synoptics this side of the atlantic playing ball until after xmas and into the new year

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On 21/11/2018 at 18:23, BlazeStorm said:

When it comes to blocking potential, it seems to be the ECM and UKMO that pick up on the signals first, then the GFS jumps on board.

This time it appears to be somewhat the opposite, and so I lack confidence that we will see any real cold before the second week of December. Still hopeful though!

That second week of December is beginning to look interesting! Hope we don't find ourselves back at square one again, some great blocking potential.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

dont see the the synoptics this side of the atlantic playing ball until after xmas and into the new year

I would have agreed with you a few days ago but the strat vortex displacement looks odds on now.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would have agreed with you a few days ago but the strat vortex displacement looks odds on now.

If GEFS are right of course, a lot of water to go under that bridge, lets hope GFS and its ensemble suite don't flip in the morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would have agreed with you a few days ago but the strat vortex displacement looks odds on now.

maybe im missing something then..granted im only looking at the GFS and ECM operational runs but neither show any vortex displacement over here?

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hopefully phase with the Scandi troughing like in the 18z GFS op.

It's like Feb said.

Plus I don't think it has the potency to disrupt a 1048mb high.

I'm remaining balanced. 

But I personally don't see a problem. 

I expect the morning's 00z and 06z to be similar to the 12z and 18z up to T216 hrs anyway.

 

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