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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

In this country, cold spells are generally brief ........ getting a spell rather than a snap is the trick ! 

I think I have it: for a cold spell we need a ssw with a polar vortex split (but not a ssw with displacement). What gets us a split (what generates wave2)? 

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A vain attempt to make the Met Office's forecasters look like muppets, would be my guess, John...

Huh ? The only thing that can make a forecast look muppetesque is the weather itself , not someone’s interpretation of a forecast 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfsp showing excellent cold pattern consistency ..... I recall it doing that a couple weeks ago .....was wrong to do so .......

oh - also the 06z gefs decision to leave the tpv centre nw Greenland by d16  has gone on the 12z ......

Yes, I also remember the gfsp from a couple of weeks ago. Difference this time though is that it has got backing from it's older cousin. 

graphe3_1000___-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.gif

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not being funny but i have to say that at least this thread has the correct theme - searching for snow because most of the people on it are of the snowflake generation.

You’d like to think Exeter’s 16-30 day forecast is made using their super computers, so you’d like to think that it has a chance of being on the right track, but maybe not necessarily accurate. Using this forecast as a “don’t get carried away with FI charts” is no bad thing in my eyes!! 

I just hope this latest flip is wrong, and this evenings runs are more on the right track 

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Anyway, Met Office forecasts aside, an incursion of cold air from the East is looking ever more likely. But a lot can happen, in the subsequent two weeks?

 

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Gfs(p) also very different to its earlier run 

D87A9BCD-C0CB-42BD-AC62-CC52D00987B5.png

53F3FFC0-327B-4A68-A7A0-4DEB8BF7A050.png

No not as good, seemed ok at T240, then the high sinks and ends up over us. That would be ok if it followed some heavy snowfall though of course.;)

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Worth saying (even if it’s not popular) that the gfs(p) is cold and dry with very little snow. 70% of the population would not see any snow if that evolution was spot on (which of course it won’t be)  As far as the bigger picture goes I’d probably bank it though if I had the option. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 minutes ago, snowray said:

No not as good, seemed ok at T240, then the high sinks and ends up over us. That would be ok if it followed some heavy snowfall though of course.;)

In the medium term, no...But the signal for an Arctic attack, later on, is still very much there...

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

Great looking charts,but I still suffer from the failed easterly

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

One aspect that hasn't been discussed from the GFS and FV3 12z output, is the eventual position of the trop PV, if it ends up as illustrated by either models at T384 then I'm calling game on! for the winter!❄️

image.thumb.jpg.046ca2a5fd9dc429308e645e141e55ee.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.85248e57e2bf32c85b587209e3ed1ac0.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Not hugely different 

19C424CE-1FDD-4F38-A2BD-E146BE6BB9CA.png

D6AF89C8-F58C-43ED-893C-4E5DDA296494.png

Looks like the EC is going to mirror it`s 0z run and shove the ridge over the uk next frame again. 

T168

 

ECH1-168.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Amplification from ECM but where we go uncertain at T168, the trop polar vortex looks like a purple parrot, not sure how significant that is...

image.thumb.jpg.2c0ea5abeacc39e53ca37d387e39028f.jpg

 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Big frame coming up from ec 12z 

Well, it is better in the sense the ridge is due North compared to NE.

 

ECH1-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Well, it is better in the sense the ridge is due North compared to NE.

 

ECH1-192.png

Looking like a lizard the ECM lol

Didn't the ukmo have wedge of heights around Iceland 

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Oh dear!  ecm not looking good at all

Looks much better than earlier. Ridge going north of the U.K. could end up over scandi on nxt frame ?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

One aspect that hasn't been discussed from the GFS and FV3 12z output, is the eventual position of the trop PV, if it ends up as illustrated by either models at T384 then I'm calling game on! for the winter!❄️

image.thumb.jpg.046ca2a5fd9dc429308e645e141e55ee.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.85248e57e2bf32c85b587209e3ed1ac0.jpg

Given that we have (for now) a consistent signal to displace the stratospheric vortex over Siberia in around 15 days i can actually see the logic in high pressure tending to sink over/west of us after a brief easterly attempt such that the tropospheric vortex can drop a Scandi trough. 

We may have to wait a few extra days but i can definitely see the support for northerly over easterly. 

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