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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

06z Ensembles looking good there, still a few members going for mild though none the less very encouraging, lets hope they start to disappear on the 12z run.

 

London and Manchester.

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12 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The GFS parallel is starting to remind me of the gfs of yesteryear - throwing out winter nirvana charts during week 2 that don't materialise. Let's hope this upgraded version is a little more accurate. 

Its in the mix in terms of good 'fit' but is the most amplified - which at this stage is slightly out on its own but in with a shout...

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
9 minutes ago, snowray said:

06z Ensembles looking good there, still a few members going for mild though none the less very encouraging, lets hope they start to disappear on the 12z run.

 

London and Manchester.

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Not keen on those if im honest.

Will qualify that by saying 850s will not be a great guide under a high.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not keen on those if im honest.

Still showing around the 9th where the dice are then thrown. Agreed, looks like more milder members post the 9th but trying to erase form my mind for now.

Crucial few days coming up.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not keen on those if im honest.

No not perfect by any means NW but with lots of Eastern Promise I'd say.:oldrolleyes:

Anyway next weds night seems to have upgraded again for you in the NW, the low is slightly further south again by the looks of it.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Stuie W said:

Still showing around the 9th where the dice are then thrown. Agreed, looks like more milder members post the 9th but trying to erase form my mind for now.

Crucial few days coming up.

Milder 850s but under a high they become less important- even the 'milder' members will likely be not so mild at all.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Milder 850s but under a high they become less important- even the 'milder' members will likely be not so mild at all.

Exactly, `Milder` not 22 Degs.

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The stratospheric charts are an absolute stonker.

How often you see a chart right at the top of the strat like that on December the 2nd.

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018120206&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

Every time we see a decent strat chart on here it’s 384 hours away. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Stuie W said:

Exactly, `Milder` not 22 Degs.

TBH anything beats the utter dross my locale is currently suffering.

Its another disgusting day here!

Lot depends on how much cloud is trapped under any high- but dry will do for now!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Every time we see a decent strat chart on here it’s 384 hours away. 

Its getting closer though - scroll through the charts,

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
4 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Every time we see a decent strat chart on here it’s 384 hours away. 

I'm not so convinced we need an ssw to get the cold in here, below is a list with all midwinter ssw dates (except last year's) and most seem to follow a cold period and after the ssw many (like the majority of) times there is no cold period in our parts of Europe following the ssw

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/essd-9-63-2017.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjnqa2-ioHfAhWH66QKHU6ADfIQFjAAegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw2c8j-xVmsFCgg4w3OeL3qf

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

The JS takes a lovely wander around the `potential` ridge.

Via FV3.

gfs-5-204.png

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
39 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s a shame the ECM decided to play Scrooge this morning .

Better news from the GEM and GFS06 hrs run.

The latter does bring some trigger shortwave drama into the mix ! There’s still model uncertainty within the day 6 timeframe with the degree of upstream amplification so a lot still needs to be resolved this evening .

PS where have all the screen names at the bottom of the page gone?

 

I was wondering that Nick the names have been missing a day or two on my device. 

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
4 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

I was wondering that Nick the names have been missing a day or two on my device. 

This is why. 

9DC0C109-4FDE-4DFF-8C50-EBF901B5490B.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Good to see some potential for cold, but still nothing close to the reliable range. Possibly a UK high with an inversion would at least bring some seasonal conditions.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Back end of the 06z gefs not so good re the return of the mean tpv to nw of Greenland by day 16

thats on its own isn’t a massive problem re possible scandi heights but it would keep the Atlantic busier than the eps/gems offerings 

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

I don't like the sound of this, I presume this *could* mean the jet stream is going to become even stronger? Honestly I dread to hear the words snowstorm in the eastern US & El Nino as it reminds me of the mild but very stormy winter 2013/14 

image.jpeg

It’s not a surprise - infact I would prefer a snowstorm to be mentioned re the eastern USA as it probably means a deeper slower trough and more amplification ahead of it  

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s not a surprise - infact I would prefer a snowstorm to be mentioned re the eastern USA as it probably means a deeper slower trough and more amplification ahead of it  

Quite so Blue I can also remember back in the decent winters of the 70's and 80's that we often had cold and snowy conditions both side of the pond simultaneously.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
3 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Quite so Blue I can also remember back in the decent winters of the 70's and 80's that we often had cold and snowy conditions both side of the pond simultaneously.

yes and also the black hole was common back then ,which is not the case archivesnh-1978-12-31-12-2.pngnowadays 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
18 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

I don't like the sound of this, I presume this *could* mean the jet stream is going to become even stronger? Honestly I dread to hear the words snowstorm in the eastern US & El Nino as it reminds me of the mild but very stormy winter 2013/14 

image.jpeg

A deep low moving off the eastern seaboard might benefit us by creating WAA north toward Iceland ahead of it as the jet buckles at same time mid-Atlantic - helping build a block. This is reliant though on a Euro trough in place and not drifting too far east.

Longer-term, the teleconnection signal upstream for a while and continues to be for the persistent ridge over western Canada and Alaska to be replaced by troughing, as Aleutian low shifts east into western NAM, this teleconnects to eastern US ridge towards mid-Dec, which will hopefully ease the foot of the accelerator of the powerful jet over the N Atlantic. This change in pattern upstream likely tied into the MJO moving through to phases 3-4.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Great to see so much of Europe covered in deep snow on the GfS(p) it’s a bit isolated in its extremety though 

216C269E-FDD3-4C1B-8DFC-7A4E50B5525F.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Majority keep the UK cold, likely a block encompassing UK/Scandy/Benelux..

click on the link and we can actually see the change from previously- more colder members..

Edited by northwestsnow
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