The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Met4Cast]

Just now, Don said:

Heights need to be further north but not bad as you say.

This is only day 10, they're heading North..

[January Snowstorm]

I suppose if you weren't snow biased you'd say a period of anti cyclonic weather is favourite in the lead up to Christmas.

Looks dry and frosty to me around mid month

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

This is only day 10, they're heading North..

Things have certainly shifted back towards a colder outlook during the last 36 hours, just need the trend to continue!

[Snowman.]

Para is doing better..

Getting some real height.

[MP-R]

5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I suppose if you weren't snow biased you'd say a period of anti cyclonic weather is favourite in the lead up to Christmas.

Looks dry and frosty to me around mid month

As an 'anything wintry' lover, that'll do just fine for me. Just can't stand mild and wet. Even cold and wet is preferable lol.

[summer blizzard]

The important thing on todays runs is not so much the easterly attempt but the solid signal for a displaced vortex with wave 2 activity. These charts could suggest a major warming in the final third of December.

GFS has more energy in the Eurasian lobe so i suspect would not get there this run.

[Met4Cast]

ECM control goes for blocking too..

[feb1991blizzard]

Another reasonable GEFS suite.

[feb1991blizzard]

Best one of these for a good few days as well.

[Mike Poole]

Final word today, the strat forecast from the FV3 at T384, looks like a swarm of bees with -32, -36, -28 on their backs taking down the vortex from the NE by collective action, good on you bees!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

some interesting charts starting to appear more frequently for us coldies, some of the better ones from a UK point of view from the 18z GEFS

blocking galore then retrogression possibly 

as @feb1991blizzard says good looking ensemble graphs too

if this develops into a colder pattern it could be an interesting festive run up to Christmas 

 

[Don]

21 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Final word today, the strat forecast from the FV3 at T384, looks like a swarm of bees with -32, -36, -28 on their backs taking down the vortex from the NE by collective action, good on you bees!

Go on, sting that vortex's backside!

Edited December 2, 2018 by Don

[Bristawl Si]

57 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I suppose if you weren't snow biased you'd say a period of anti cyclonic weather is favourite in the lead up to Christmas.

Looks dry and frosty to me around mid month

Hmm....a Winter borefest. Yawn!!

[Weathizard]

Nice amount of amplification at just day 6 especially when compared against the 18s, not too worried about what happens after at this range. Co

[Weather-history]

5 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Hmm....a Winter borefest. Yawn!!

That's true of any high pressure though if you think about it. May to July 2018 was a borefest at least around here. It was sunny and dry and that was it with little variation. Odd thing, it was fantastic at the same time.

 Arguably winter high pressure is a bit more interesting if you get fog, freezing fog, rime etc but anticyclonic gloom......

 

[Seasonality]

00z GEM is a very good outcome. If I'm being Craig Revel Horwood and looking for something to critique I'd want the high to end up further north so more of the UK can get in on the action but still very decent. 

[That ECM]

Much to be resolved but dry and less windy is looking good. Now where will the high go? North, NE or SE? 

[ArHu3]

Let's hope EC's oper is a warm outlier because the following scenario we have seen happen dat too often 

 

Edited December 2, 2018 by ArHu3

[Johnp]

Dire ECM, pretty poor runs all round this morning apart from GEM.

Was yesterday all a dream? It was nice while it lasted.

[Tim Bland]

If you haven’t viewed the models yet:  I’d suggest that you start with the GEM and skip the rest...just imagine they are the same as yesterday, that way you will have a good morning!

 

 

[ArHu3]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

If you haven’t viewed the models yet:  I’d suggest that you start with the GEM and skip the rest...just imagine they are the same as yesterday, that way you will have a good morning!

 

 

EC's day 10 mean actually isn't that bad, which means there must be quite a few good members in the ensemble 

 

[karyo]

The area around south of Greenland and Iceland is once again proving a magnet for low development so the high from the south can't successfully extend north enough. Is this linked with the SSTs in the area? This can be a proper winter screwer!

[carinthian]

23 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, a visit to the refreshment hutte along the Advent Path. Hot Gluewein and the sweet smell of oranges and cinnamon. You just know Christmas time has arrived. First day of our new ski -season today, so excited about that. Regarding the models another step in the right direction with some kind of agreement with ECM and GFS for blocking to develop. The GEFS control model below out at 192t brings this develop a little bit closer with each run. You would expect the trough out east to sharpen into a long wave pattern out to period 240t with a switch to a NEly flow into the British Isles. We will have to wait for further consistency and the support from other models including the UKMO  before  we can confidently predict a more sustained cold spell to develop, but a big step in the right direction this morning. Our own singular model has consistently shown this development for some time now  in the Medium to long range forecast. I will get an update from them on Monday morning to see if they still hold to this line of thought but in the meantime going to get my skis out and see if my body is still in sync with them !

Morning all, remember in yesterdays post , I mentioned we now have to look for some consistency in the models and compared with the previous 24 hours projections. Looking at this mornings , it is there . The GEFS control at 192t picture below shows this. Also backed up by ECM . So I would expect strong ridging to develop to the NE by day 9 (216t). Obviously there will be variations during the interim operational runs but the trend to a colder outlook continues for most in Europe during the second week of December. Shown below is chart of the day at 240t produced by the Canadian Met NWP model ( now that would be something )!

Edited December 2, 2018 by carinthian

[Nick F]

A step in the wrong direction this morning from the 00z GFS and EC ops, difference between these and the better GEM is that they are more progressive with shifting the trough to our east eastward- which allows the jet to buckle further east. We need it buckling further west to build the ridge N/ NE, otherwise we miss out on any deep cold and any ridge slides SE over UK as another  jet surge upstream works through, thanks to steep upper temp gradient on base of the trop PV over Greenland.

However, the 00z EPS and GEFS mean at day 10 still suggests broadly a strong ridge over UK toward Norway, with Euro trough still close enough and uptream troughing into N Atlantic far enough away. So we may see some better GFS and EC ops in coming runs, given building blocks for the ridge to develop still far enough away in timescale to accommodate changes.

[Weather-history]

18 minutes ago, karyo said:

The area around south of Greenland and Iceland is once again proving a magnet for low development so the high from the south can't successfully extend north enough. Is this linked with the SSTs in the area? This can be a proper winter screwer!

Normal climate pattern. 

Icelandic low is a semi-permanent feature.