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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Out to 192 on the GFS and it looks like we could have lift off, WAA up towards Greenland.  

gfsnh-0-192.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This looks very good to me !

18AD4369-A4E6-4BCD-9D0C-A59FE3E88FF5.thumb.png.f877b18db7c29fe3c921c2a2d0d9d931.png

Agreed Steve, is that about t192?  So much improved and I anticipate a big shot of cold from that with an Atlantic blocked out.

If the 12z doesn’t surge deep cold from our NE I’ll become dry for December!

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Looking just terrific at 210. Cold approaching from the north east

gfsnh-0-210.png?12  gfsnh-1-210.png?12

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Clear...and concise...

The vortex is in the dock....and going DOWN!!!...

gfsnh-0-228.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

234..... now that is a chart to like.  Cold is well and truly in.  So, the upgrades continue and not in deep FI either.  Interesting times.

gfsnh-0-234.png?12  gfsnh-1-234.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

gfsnh-0-234.png?12:ninja:

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A lovely cold Northerly turning N/Ely towards the end of the run..

627805808_viewimage(4).thumb.png.19f821bba1ce937de1970271e53a3591.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Look at this . -11 850s knocking on the door . 

D03E7ADF-8A6B-47B6-BD14-DB20345F89B8.png

E77DB3BB-D00C-4E33-B1BE-CD8F45E2BB42.png

This is given momentum and noting...trop-strat-...placements/waves

The evo-thats the odds on now!!!!

As we slowly gain and the bits drop into the slot!!!

Its very decent alignment...and about time..

This will likely step into reliable time params..

And even strengthen in synop!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

12_276_ukthickness850.thumb.png.7df1f9c100594bb573891eb9fb25efc4.png

-11 isotherm across most of the country at T276

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

If someone can post the t264 chart.....an official Boom chart......ahh Icecold thanks.....only one way from there....Greenland here I come

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Am I seeing retrogression towards Greenland? PV planted to the NE on this run leaves the door open for all sorts of possibilities.

 

Edited by Snowman.
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Am I seeing retrogression towards Greenland? PV planted to the NE on this run leaves the door open for all sorts of possibilities.

 

Yes pal..

Though with minamal vigor!!.

But given the actions on the upper layers..

Could be undermined!!!..

'Quite something to say'..

Given the POSSIBILITIES!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Early indications..

Are-non -cold -outlier!!!

Gfs 12z op!!..

Supports are raising there thumbs!!!..

And why not !!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Displacement strat event right the way up the atmosphere on the GFS 12z

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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