Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

There it is, the Azores ridge making a presence.. Hmm the wheels on the zonal bus falling off.

Jigsaw puzzle 1 in action, just need part 2 to become established with the 850`s/flow.

 

ECH1-192.png

ECH0-192.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC putting massive energy into the Atlantic this evening.

Certainly trying, if those LP`s can stay separate and not phase together then a very welcome boost to evolve the ridge is plausible.

 

ECH1-216.png

Edit:

And they do...

 

ECH1-240.png

Edited by Stuie W
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ecm..gaining..

The nuances gaing also...

Turning point ALSO 'OF GAIN'..as we note atmosphetic tranfer!!

Block formats 'still' not modeled correct..

However...the big picture formats are of note!!!..

Pacific punch is the daddy of evo!!!. 

The russian-pen ridge..will likely become bullied/and of lighter gain...as we progress...

And the damage- @the upper layers..becomes present!!!

Edit..suttle but -of note..

The 10hpa (strato)-rapid notion..

Is a classic' notion"..of upper sheet destruct-..and quick transfer- of the atlantic achillies heel..@point tip greenland...and typical of downwelling!!..

A point of note after initial wave dynamics!!!

The power jet reliance of the atlantic..also looking 2 be tested...as we gain!!!

ECH1-192.gif

gfsnh-10-264.png

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The GFS 12Zs for comparison:

Netweather GFS Image          Netweather GFS Image

Which give differing 'predictions' for day 16. And, given the Met's 16-30-day outlook I think I'll err on the side of the professionals...For know!

Anyone smelling the☕?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
46 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

You can`t trust anything at day 15, it`s just unfortunate that the default pattern we live in most of the year is zonal which makes posting that a little bit of a cop out tbh.

Why do we have charts that go to 15 days then.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄

Give me strength! 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1051722/uk-weather-forecast-met-office-forecast-storm-diana-accuweather-uk-storm/amp

A DEADLY double-vortex super-tempest born from the union of Storm Diana and a second Atlantic cyclone will unleash days of hurricane winds and torrential rainfall

Violent weather conditions will hold out into next week as a chain of turbulent low-pressure systems are hurled at the UK by a brutally powerful jet stream.

A raft of Government ‘be prepared’ and ‘danger to life’ warnings are in place as powerful gales and biblical downpours bring widespread flooding, damage to buildings and travel chaos.

Can anyone tell me if this is what they are seeing looking at the models please... 

Thanks in advance. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The GFS 12Zs for comparison:

Netweather GFS Image          Netweather GFS Image

Which give differing 'predictions' for day 16. And, given the Met's 16-30-day outlook I think I'll err on the side of the professionals...For know!

Anyone smelling the☕?

Lol..some refer to the synop..as the PIZZA SLICE/OR NO MANS LAND!!..

OH WELL EVERY 1 2 THERE OWN...

'However'..the pac ridge..and brother russian arm are imo..modeled too' clockwise!!!..

And evolution..is'/will now become favourable...as the alarm bells ring in the upper thermos!!!

Its a very strange set of miss-/de sheveled dynamics...

Atm.

But we-are close as-close to something notable...

And earlier than diog'ed!!!..

Imo!!

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
10 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Why do we have charts that go to 15 days then.

 

You tell me, we could all take the CFS at face value and shut the forum for 3 months.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

We certainly can't say the Atlantic is progged to be sluggish!

The sheer speed of those lows hurtling across the pond is astounding, Hope Blue is correct in his musings about a bit of slackening off later on..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
9 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

Give me strength! 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1051722/uk-weather-forecast-met-office-forecast-storm-diana-accuweather-uk-storm/amp

A DEADLY double-vortex super-tempest born from the union of Storm Diana and a second Atlantic cyclone will unleash days of hurricane winds and torrential rainfall

Violent weather conditions will hold out into next week as a chain of turbulent low-pressure systems are hurled at the UK by a brutally powerful jet stream.

A raft of Government ‘be prepared’ and ‘danger to life’ warnings are in place as powerful gales and biblical downpours bring widespread flooding, damage to buildings and travel chaos.

Can anyone tell me if this is what they are seeing looking at the models please... 

Thanks in advance. 

Nope. 

Just going to be wet and windy for a few days.

I’m starting a petition to sack their editor. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, Stuie W said:

You can`t trust anything at day 15, it`s just unfortunate that the default pattern we live in most of the year is zonal which makes posting that a little bit of a cop out tbh.

Not true at all, the models are not biased in the way you suggest, thermodynamic equations do not have a default.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

We certainly can't say the Atlantic is progged to be sluggish!

The sheer speed of those lows hurtling across the pond is astounding, Hope Blue is correct in his musings about a bit of slackening off later on..

Not half but the JS looks to calm down and take a wander around the same timescale which has been touted for the zonal pattern to change.

 

gfs-5-240.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Not true at all, the models are not biased in the way you suggest, thermodynamic equations do not have a default.

John, I never said models were biased, we live in an Atlantic driven weather system so putting faith in something which shows zonal is rather easy?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not true at all, the models are not biased in the way you suggest, thermodynamic equations do not have a default.

I have seen it mentioned by professionals on social media that the models will return to climatological norms in the absence of a forcing signal before now.

I guess the only people who really know are those who make the algorithms. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
34 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Why do we have charts that go to 15 days then.

 

I've often wondered this myself. At least the ECM doesn't.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Hi, I simply posted what was the basic standard when I was forecasting, perhaps things have changed in the 20 or so years since I hung up my forecast hat.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Really strong signal here on the ECM ensemble mean for the kind of ridge we've been seeing on the op runs this evening, T240:

image.thumb.jpg.cad25c113d88d58891288771d87d16f6.jpg

The spread interesting at the same time:

image.thumb.jpg.d1de7b29a107fbdbe60cf1086b8cc10f.jpg

2 points here, the uncertainty extending into Southern Europe would suggest low pressure systems headed here on some members - this would be a welcome trend, and the massive area of uncertainty upstream of the UK is interesting, this looks totally up for grabs and I would expect a range of options for blocking and the track of low pressures in this area on the clusters.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening All As we move into next week lots of uncertainty at the time frame of T+96 as cold air flirts into the north of the uk, Yes a high level of Shannon entropy 

h850t850eu-9.png

ecmt850.096-1.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Really strong signal here on the ECM ensemble mean for the kind of ridge we've been seeing on the op runs this evening.  

 

image.thumb.jpg.cad25c113d88d58891288771d87d16f6.jpg

You beat me to it Mike . Was just going to post it . Looks quite amplified . Certainly doesn’t look zonal . 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich

The models seem to be turning to a colder outlook this afternoon and the zonal crew fall silent. 

Sshhhh they will be back in a few hours or days!!! 

End of January till a change?? Ok eyes down for the 18z’s!! 

MNR

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would be 1000ft up if i had'nt had to move here in a rush (this is the lowest point in the whole parish), the problem here is people keep going up and down the main road and putting salt down so it needs a continual pasting to keep them in bed and maintain a decent snow cover.

I live close to Feb (5-10 mins), similar height and had two days snowed in this year.

He’s incredibly unlucky.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Ramp said:

I live close to Feb (5-10 mins), similar height and had two days snowed in this year.

He’s incredibly unlucky.

Places only 1 and a half miles away got 5 foot drifts last winter.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...