The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[booferking]

Plenty of vava voom in para seems like a light switch was turned on today..

[Mike Poole]

Even better run I think in terms of longer term potential on the FV3, signs at T228, then the big Scandi high following at T300, looks better placed too.

As you can see on the T850s, good angle of attack for the cold air

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Even better run I think in terms of longer term potential on the FV3, signs at T228, then the big Scandi high following at T300, looks better placed too.

As you can see on the T850s, good angle of attack for the cold air

The atmospheric/dynamics have/are being underestimated- via miss overlooking!

The momentumn-and shrug- has been of MASSIVE shout...and the annoyance of upper layers are showing now!!!

Some will have to re-alaborate there mid term- deciphers/forecasts!!..

 

[Mucka]

I should write blocking off more frequently given this afternoons runs.

Think I will stay quiet for a little while, keep the reverse jinx going. 

 

[tight isobar]

Of lag..but of note...

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

gfsp on board at day 10 - waiting for ecm to give a full house !

At D10 though - i would prefer to have majority clustering or in a really ideal world, the ensemble mean.

[Tim Bland]

warning ! File contains weather porn ...

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

At D10 though - i would prefer to have majority clustering or in a really ideal world, the ensemble mean.

Ens mean is of catch up here...

Check the supports for full 12z...after ec-12z..

Will speak volumes!!..

@i think!!@,?

We are gaining!!!

RAPIDLY....

Edited November 30, 2018 by tight isobar

[snowray]

This is a lovely chart from the FV3, high a little further north of Scandi allowing deep cold from the east, and the Atlantic low undercuts. Net result, heavy snow!

 

Don't last long though....the Atlantic is back before you know it.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

At D10 though - i would prefer to have majority clustering or in a really ideal world, the ensemble mean.

this is never going to be an evolution where the mean will pick it up ahead of the ops …….too much volatility in the nwp

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, booferking said:

Plenty of vava voom in para seems like a light switch was turned on today..

Let's hope so! After this morning's ghastly offerings, these are something else! 

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

At D10 though - i would prefer to have majority clustering or in a really ideal world, the ensemble mean.

You posted a 360hr chart earlier on to show how zonal was likely..

[Steve C]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

You posted a 360hr chart earlier on to show how zonal was likely..

I'd trust a zonal chart at day 15 more than an easterly chart at day 10, unfortunately. 

[ICE COLD]

PLEASE ECM 12Z CARRY ON THE TREND FROM THE EVENINGS 12Z RUNS . DONT BE A FRIDAY NIGHT LET DOWN.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, bluearmy said:

this is never going to be an evolution where the mean will pick it up ahead of the ops …….too much volatility in the nwp

True but thats because its an outlier solution with very low chance of verifying.

Anyway - this bit now is a more general statement to others, i will only post positive things from now on into this thread wrt cold so its very likely i wont be posting a whole lot over the coming weeks, if i want to make predictions that are mild i will do it in the other thread, i thought this thread was the hunt for cold thread, not the make believe it will be cold when it wont thread, i can understand people not wanting mild fans gloating about mild weather in here and thought that was the point but thats different altogether, anyway the average is 4.7c CET for December, i have gone 6.3 and above average rainfall on the December competition, so if anyone who thinks December will be cold, go below the 4.7c average but there will only be one winner between me and you if you do - There's the challenge.

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Steve C said:

I'd trust a zonal chart at day 15 more than an easterly chart at day 10, unfortunately. 

Very wise!

[Stuie]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Very wise!

You can`t trust anything at day 15, it`s just unfortunate that the default pattern we live in most of the year is zonal which makes posting that a little bit of a cop out tbh.

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Steve C said:

I'd trust a zonal chart at day 15 more than an easterly chart at day 10, unfortunately. 

Me too!

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

True but thats because its an outlier solution with very low chance of verifying.

Anyway - this bit now is a more general statement to others, i will only post positive things from now on into this thread wrt cold so its very likely i wont be posting a whole lot over the coming weeks, if i want to make predictions that are mild i will do it in the other thread, i thought this thread was the hunt for cold thread, not the make believe it will be cold when it wont thread, i can understand people not wanting mild fans gloating about mild weather in here and thought that was the point but thats different altogether, anyway the average is 4.7c CET for December, i have gone 6.3 and above average rainfall on the December competition, so if anyone who thinks December will be cold, go below the 4.7c average but there will only be one winner between me and you if you do - There's the challenge.

At 600 feet up in west yorks, you can be more sanguine than most !

but you're right, the other thread is more relevant for model discussion which is based on the stronger likelihood of mobility verifying - that's just basic stats. if i thought there was no chance of cold within the next 2/3 weeks then i would be discussing the nwp on there and keeping knocker company!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Me too!

me too! by miles

[SMU]

ECM day 5 snow zone somewhere about here...

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

At 600 feet up in west yorks, you can be more sanguine than most !

but you're right, the other thread is more relevant for model discussion which is based on the stronger likelihood of mobility verifying - that's just basic stats. if i thought there was no chance of cold within the next 2/3 weeks then i would be discussing the nwp on there and keeping knocker company!

I would be 1000ft up if i had'nt had to move here in a rush (this is the lowest point in the whole parish), the problem here is people keep going up and down the main road and putting salt down so it needs a continual pasting to keep them in bed and maintain a decent snow cover.

[Danielvn]

9 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

You can`t trust anything at day 15, it`s just unfortunate that the default pattern we live in most of the year is zonal which makes posting that a little bit of a cop out tbh.

No, it makes it massively sensible.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would be 1000ft up if i had'nt had to move here in a rush (this is the lowest point in the whole parish), the problem here is people keep going up and down the main road and putting salt down so it needs a continual pasting to keep them in bed and maintain a decent snow cover.

Haha mate Frosty ground is 2 miles from you and hes 300m !!

Some very hilly parts around Oldham- top of ripponden road 345m

anyway, i digress, big few slides coming up on EC, 168 onwards is key for me..

 

[Mike Poole]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

At 600 feet up in west yorks, you can be more sanguine than most !

but you're right, the other thread is more relevant for model discussion which is based on the stronger likelihood of mobility verifying - that's just basic stats. if i thought there was no chance of cold within the next 2/3 weeks then i would be discussing the nwp on there and keeping knocker company!

So what, we post the thrills in here, and the spills in there?  That's never going to work, the roller coaster is an integral part of what is so fascinating about model watching at this time of year.  

Deliberate mild ramping belongs in the other thread, yes, but let's keep the ups and down of the journey into winter in one place please!