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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm is a real kick in the goolies tonight. That pv over north east Canada just grows ever bigger throughout the run. Thought it was supposed to edge towards Western Canada? Let's hope the ecm is struggling. Wouldn't be the first time. 

I think our first "hope" (and the 12Z Parallel at the very end of FI suggests this) is to get the trough negatively tilted and send the LP SE into Europe. That will need either the Arctic HP to build SW or the Eurasian HP to build WNW and it's the latter which occurs at the very end of 12Z Para FI.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
11 minutes ago, stodge said:

It is modelled a notch stronger on the 12Z than it was on the 00Z - it is now 1030MB for example. As a result, the jet is further north and the LP is tracking further north as well.

Exactly reason why i dont want high near us at all stay out west, its clearly trying to ridge towards uk and the jet then gets blasted to the north of uk this morning run jet goes through Europe hence the reason why the cold air was digging South and you had snow potential for Northern half of the country.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Reading all the posts since logging on I thought this was game over, maybe i am reading this wrongly.

I am going to quote some FI, the 9th, think I posted this date last night.

Yes we are looking ant some zonality but it isn`t exactly warm and there could be some really interesting battlegrounds coming with the atlantic meeting cold air via the North.

what is impressive is that (using the FV3) Scandi 2m temps (even daytime) do not downgrade throughout 192-384, utterly frigid. There is a Sceuro block which if it nudged west (not by much) then this is far from game over IMO.

 

gfs-1-234.png

gfs-9-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Short term upgrades may well surprise us in the morning. Massive difference in these two charts - interesting. 

ECH1-144.gif

ECH1-96.gif

It also shows how the ecm totally overestimated heights to our south at day 5. I am assuming it will be more or less spot on at t72. Now look at today's day 5 chart. Is it doing the same thing again?

ECH1-120.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

FI charts will chop and change as usual, no point in getting too carried away with every single run. As a couple of people have pointed out already, we have seen some upgrades in the shorter term that look like pulling off a surprise or two as far south as the Midlands next week. 

Any more upgrades in the pipeline I wonder on that back edge of snow next Wednesday night?:oldgood:

90-574UK.gif

96-574UK.gif

132-574UK.gif

108-7UK.gif

138-7UK.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
20 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Short term upgrades may well surprise us in the morning. Massive difference in these two charts - interesting. 

ECH1-144.gif

ECH1-96.gif

Upgrades won't surprise me, blizzard...It'll be upgrade, downgrade, upgrade, downgrade, until the cows come home!...

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Upgrades won't surprise me, blizzard...It'll be upgrade, downgrade, upgrade, downgrade, until the cows come home!...

I know what you mean but the upgrade chart is at day 3.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Well the signals have obviously changed big time..the model output has been hinting at the demise of the ridge pre Xmas for a few days now and finally the Met have thrown in the towel..ECM day 10 probably showing our best bet at cold with a back edge northerly, unlikely to be anything worthwhile until we see one of the lows conveying out of Canada heading up the western side of Greenland and allowing the Atlantic ridge to move north......Unfortunately, this one isn't heading in the right direction!.

 

ECMOPEU12_240_1-1.png

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
49 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Reading all the posts since logging on I thought this was game over, maybe i am reading this wrongly.

I am going to quote some FI, the 9th, think I posted this date last night.

Yes we are looking ant some zonality but it isn`t exactly warm and there could be some really interesting battlegrounds coming with the atlantic meeting cold air via the North.

what is impressive is that (using the FV3) Scandi 2m temps (even daytime) do not downgrade throughout 192-384, utterly frigid. There is a Sceuro block which if it nudged west (not by much) then this is far from game over IMO.

 

gfs-1-234.png

gfs-9-240.png

those temps look not far from average for this time of year over Scandinavia..cold in the mountains..hoovering either side freezing elsewhere

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Just now, cheeky_monkey said:

those temps look not far from average for this time of year over Scandinavia..cold in the mountains..hoovering either side freezing elsewhere

Never really monitored Scandi daytime temps before but I suppose the point I was making was the cold isn`t that far away to influence us with some slight modification...

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Never really monitored Scandi daytime temps before but I suppose the point I was making was the cold isn`t that far away to influence us with some slight modification...

Temps would need to be much lower and significantly lower across Europe too

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Just now, cheeky_monkey said:

Temps would need to be much lower and significantly lower across Europe too

Daytime? 

Regarding Europe, unless we want a pure Easterly, I`d settle for tapping into a NE.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Just now, Stuie W said:

Daytime? 

Regarding Europe, unless we want a pure Easterly, I`d settle for tapping into a NE.

long NE fetch would need those temps to be much lower IMO

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

those temps look not far from average for this time of year over Scandinavia..cold in the mountains..hoovering either side freezing elsewhere

Yes, i would suggest the cold spell is dead in the water now, Im absolutely gutted, i suggest anyone who thinks a dumping is in the offing anytime soon has been hoovering too much of the white stuff up themselves!!!!     I still feel gutted but i dont know why, it wasn't like i expected any other outcome - not for the last 7 days anyway - i did try to warn people what was going to happen but its even worse than i feared - even the 10mb strat charts have downgraded on the 12z GFS.

gfsnh-10-384_geb2.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

long NE fetch would need those temps to be much lower IMO

Fair enough, lets get to this point and discuss.

 

gfsnh-1-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, i would suggest the cold spell is dead in the water now, Im absolutely gutted, i suggest anyone who thinks a dumping is in the offing anytime soon has been hoovering too much of the white stuff up themselves!!!!     I still feel gutted but i dont know why, it wasn't like i expected any other outcome - not for the last 7 days anyway - i did try to warn people what was going to happen but its even worse than i feared - even the 10mb strat charts have downgraded on the 12z GFS.

gfsnh-10-384_geb2.png

Feb, 2 things....

I haven`t read anybody saying a white dumping was coming anywhere soon.

Secondly, when was the cold spell going to happen which is dead in the water. Pretty sure we were looking around the 2nd week of Dec for potential pattern change.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, Stuie W said:

Feb, 2 things....

I haven`t read anybody saying a white dumping was coming anywhere soon.

Secondly, when was the cold spell going to happen which is dead in the water. Pretty sure we were looking around the 2nd week of Dec for potential pattern change.

Then whats the point of ramping a non-snowy cold spell.

And there is not likely to be one before xmas.

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Tomorrows another day..

Lets see if we can drag in some cold zonality longer term..

 

Ugh! good for your location though, very location/height dependant 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

The models pointed to blocking towards mid December a week ago....lots can change in that timeframe. Even the met have done a 180 on their long ranger from blocking to zonal. It’s just not gone our way....this time.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast

A small consolation for today's abysmal model output, at EC's oper was the warmest outlier (click on image if it isn't an outlier in the thumbnail) 

 

eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

 

 

 

Edited by ArHu3
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