The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Midlander]

13 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I think what we are seeing is the models move toward a cool/cold zonal flow with temporary Atlantic ridges allow for brief drier interludes and colder from the North - so a move away from a definitive pattern change with Northern blocking.

This will make for fairly typical Dec conditions with a chance of transient wintriness mainly in the North but if we clutch a straw the right set up could at least give snow to low levels though it wouldn't stick around.

This pattern couldn't sustain and eventually it would turn more typical zonal again and we would then await the next chance.

This would be disappointing and a let down for those who have forecast a true pattern change to blocking - which included me I might add.

There is still the chance the models are overdoing the Atlantic thrust and the potential for an Atlantic ridge to be more resilient which could at least give a proper cold snap and maybe lead to a true pattern change so all not lost yet.

And finally there is always the small chance of something else popping up.

The search for cold goes on.

Indeed Mucka. There is no sign of blocking bringing wintry weather to the UK and the Atlantic still remains the dominant driver of our weather. Our search continues...

Edited November 29, 2018 by Paul

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

The search for cold goes on.

The perfect heading for a new thread when it arrives which is likely to be before any decent cold I look forward to the heading “how long will the deep cold last”  heyho we keep hunting and hoping, it’s what we do

Edited November 29, 2018 by That ECM

[Spanish Dani]

4 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Indeed Mucka, I believe the likes of UKWX Info did state on here before that they would expect cold charts to appear, but at the moment average temps are the best thing cold lovers can hope for. There is no sign of blocking bringing wintry weather to the UK and the Atlantic still remains the dominant driver of our weather. Our search continues...

Yes some very mild days for the South too. 

[Jason M]

Wait until all the ensembles and ECM have run before we jump to conclusions. For all we know the opp might be biggest warm outlier ever! Unlikely, but not unheard of.

 

[sparky1972]

8 minutes ago, Spanish Dani said:

Yes some very mild days for the South too. 

least i can turn my heating off again and save a few pennies.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Wait until all the ensembles and ECM have run before we jump to conclusions. For all we know the opp might be biggest warm outlier ever! Unlikely, but not unheard of.

 

It will be a synoptic outlier IMO - too flat, however, i have seen nothing at all for the last week that has suggested any significant cold spell is likely this side of xmas, thee strat charts have been decent though but even the latest GFS has downgraded that now.

[ArHu3]

5 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Wait until all the ensembles and ECM have run before we jump to conclusions. For all we know the opp might be biggest warm outlier ever! Unlikely, but not unheard of.

 

One of the warmer outliers 

 

[Leon1]

People need to stop writing things off with one run, people were happy from two cold runs this morning but that never guarantees something a week away! Just because we the 12z wasn't as good we don't need to think winter is over again...

As posted above the ECM control is a mild outlier.

I also think the models will do a lot more switching between colder and milder solutions for the next few days until it suddenly chooses something and sticks to it.

 

[Weathizard]

29 minutes ago, swfc said:

Maybe it's s data issue due to the run up to Xmas!!! Sorry I always wanted to say that.Anyway the changes from run to run maybe  a sign that the atmosphere is in a state of flux given the back ground signals??I'm not quite sure where that leaves the next few runs ete.Tbh I'm not sure what I'm talking about so on the strength of that alone IL "get my coat"and await the EC 12z 

‘Lack of balloon data’ I remember that one was brought out last year, love some of the things that come up on here. John didn’t replace the batteries in his weather station earlier today, so perhaps we are missing data.

Nothing really of interest this afternoon, quite unfortunate as we looked good 10 days or so ago, as usual it’s a matter of patience.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

‘Lack of balloon data’ I remember that one was brought out last year, love some of the things that come up on here. John didn’t replace the batteries in his weather station earlier today, so perhaps we are missing data.

Nothing really of interest this afternoon, quite unfortunate as we looked good 10 days or so ago, as usual it’s a matter of patience.

Usual December, I check every run now, hoping for dry 'windows' timed for the day, if we get a fully dry day, will be something, not many dry weather fans on this forum but every day 12 months a year, I check every run hoping for upgrades on dry weather

Edited November 29, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Ventnor Viking]

Patience is the key here.

It will come but we just need to bide our time. The way im looking at it is enjoy Christmas and the build up etc and then when the Christmas blues set in after new year the fun will begin in January with the pattern change and the models firming up with the change with consistency to lift our meteorological spirits

[northwestsnow]

Im not commenting on the 12z runs, i genuinely dont think there is enough consistency as it stands.

[Man With Beard]

This from the FV3 ain't bad? 

Well within the ensemble range of the past 24 hours. 

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This from the FV3 ain't bad? 

Well within the ensemble range of the past 24 hours. 

swings and roundabouts MWB. overall, the 12z's thus far are a swing away from the coldies ……… ecm still to go

as the Siberian high builds sw in week 2, the atlantic is going to have a job pushing through - hence i expect week 2 output to trend towards some split flow and we know how good gfs is at deciphering that conundrum!

im also hoping/expecting that the Canadian vortex will begin to run out of energy and retreat nw away from being the driver of the atlantic lows and their strength as the cold uppers are pushed  se with each cycle

Edited November 29, 2018 by bluearmy

[swfc]

EC 12z looks like it's ballooning the low at 144 hrs to the tip of Greenland!!! Another one gone by the look of it

Edited November 29, 2018 by swfc

[I remember Atlantic 252]

41 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This from the FV3 ain't bad? 

Well within the ensemble range of the past 24 hours. 

Ay, EC too, snow for north sigh

Edited November 29, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[booferking]

That high towards Spain is a pain in the backside need it to stay out west.

[cheeky_monkey]

ZERO height rises signaled at Northern Latitudes anywhere in the NH

[stodge]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

That high towards Spain is a pain in the backside need it to stay out west.

It is modelled a notch stronger on the 12Z than it was on the 00Z - it is now 1030MB for example. As a result, the jet is further north and the LP is tracking further north as well.

[mulzy]

As has been indicated for a few days now, the weather is likely to be rather unsettled and mild for next 7-10 days.  A succession of low pressure systems are likely to cross the country bringing wet and windy conditions - rainfaill totals are likely to be the most pertinent weather issue in the near to medium term.  The low heights to the north-west really need to recede for the UK to get a break from this Atlantic driven weather.  ECM tonight sums up our mood this evening in the "hunt for cold".

 

Edited November 29, 2018 by mulzy

[mb018538]

ECM in a word tonight - dreadful.

the hunt for cold is going to need mi5 involved!

[blizzard81]

The ecm is a real kick in the goolies tonight. That pv over north east Canada just grows ever bigger throughout the run. Thought it was supposed to edge towards Western Canada? Let's hope the ecm is struggling. Wouldn't be the first time. 

[sorepaw1]

With a few exceptions there's not many years we get snowy cold weather before Xmas anyway

It's a Hunt for cold indeed 

I suspect December model runs will be up and down

getting ever more interesting as we approach the final Xmas week. 

There's been lots of years in the past my neck of the woods sees snow around the new year time.

The Hunt continues. 

 

[blizzard81]

I think FI is at day 5 at the moment. From this to this in 24 hours? 

[sorepaw1]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

I think FI is at day 5 at the moment. From this to this in 24 hours? 

I Wouldn't argue with that Blizzard