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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Just now, Snowman. said:

May not be cold but that high is a monster.

gfsnh-0-360.png?18

Atlantic will have to go under ...it could back west to Greenland from there ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

low res on the gfs op may be unreliable but going to be fun to see what tha5 developing monster Siberian high does late on .....

Some more serious damage to the vortex and lower strat i would have thought if the run carried on any further.

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2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Can’t see a Greenland high ? Siberian high Is huge though ...

AB3C4E9E-459A-41A0-89C5-3F473F9E7AB0.png

The control was pretty much identical to the 18z out to the 240 mark before the 18z went stupid with low pressure but this is how the control evolved

D9788FBD-8A91-457B-B922-341266E4DBFE.thumb.png.ff6f24034c8aaad529ca5c39c799def1.pngBA369638-D72D-47E8-A2CD-D38B1F9C3BA9.thumb.png.c2b77e6eba28144d0366463aa47cc119.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Atlantic will have to go under ...it could back west to Greenland from there ? 

Anddd ready to be sucked straight up into the pole.

gfsnh-0-384.png?18

The Vortex isn't going to make it the end of the year if these runs keep happening...

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Ok it doesn’t give the uk any cold weather but these charts are not your average December charts . As long as these chars keep appearing and disturbing the vortex , then we’re in the game . 

333ACE4B-BA83-47A1-88EA-D1796E2E7E9F.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Some more serious damage to the vortex and lower strat i would have thought if the run carried on any further.

Surprising how the earlier ops imprinted to at least 30hpa re upper ridges .....

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
6 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

I might put my neck on the line here but unfortunately for cold lovers I cant see anything cold until mid December at the very least I think January is our best shot for anything cold and wintry 

Why? 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
24 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

“Mild Zonal” on the charts has become “cold zonal” today.. give it a couple of days and we wont be using the word “zonal” at all to describe what the models are showing..

All ticking along very nicely 

It’s definitely not standard fair you only have to compare with 2015 hemispherically black and white, potential is a cliche but it’s there, and it looks increasingly so far north itself will see average to cooler than average conditions not mild. Even a snow event risk for Scotland and far n in early December a lot to watch out for, model ‘chaos’ is a good sign when something different may stir. No sign of euro high in extended that’s very important for here. 

65B71798-53C0-45E6-A72F-6B5C94F2B8E2.thumb.jpeg.13e1e8c326737b2ed87f38096cea0fbe.jpeg95CDF325-8838-480A-B19D-79B2AB3CE69E.thumb.png.96f06ab83faa40b41f160b256f93ae66.png

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
14 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

I might put my neck on the line here but unfortunately for cold lovers I cant see anything cold until mid December at the very least I think January is our best shot for anything cold and wintry 

Well I've just seen my fridge and it's still only November.

As an added bonus, there was beer in it...

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Posted
  • Location: Market Rasen
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Fog Thunderstorms
  • Location: Market Rasen
9 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Why? 

Because its just the norm for UK winters nao is going to go positive I think and also the Atlantic is so warm and mild after that long hot summer we had 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

If you have a elongated ribbon upper stucture ..PV.

And chuck in the drunk barman- serving the forcing- waves..and introduce,  the bird in the short skirt....wearing ever' lowering knickers....

You know....that climax..will be reached!!..

Fairly soon..

Edit;..

With a' proper stunning-russian' bird..trying 2 meet the scandi- hot stuff...

Game on imo...

Unless your not of the persuasion!!?

@analysis @ says @lots...

95CDF325-8838-480A-B19D-79B2AB3CE69E.webp

gfsnh-0-372 (1).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
2 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Because its just the norm for UK winters nao is going to go positive I think and also the Atlantic is so warm and mild after that long hot summer we had 

its not though..lot colder than normal

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
4 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

Because its just the norm for UK winters nao is going to go positive I think and also the Atlantic is so warm and mild after that long hot summer we had 

Which "Atlantic" are you referring to?...

anomnight_11_26_2018.thumb.gif.2562b9f48b3060a340b93f783d3db811.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Market Rasen
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Fog Thunderstorms
  • Location: Market Rasen
2 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

its not though..lot colder than normal

I really want to be positive I want cold weather but i cant see it happening at the moment especially the runs the gfs was churning out yesterday was as bad as it gets for us coldies 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Which "Atlantic" are you referring to?...

anomnight_11_26_2018.thumb.gif.2562b9f48b3060a340b93f783d3db811.gif

We need that bit South of Greenland to warm up pretty soon, as it stands there ,that isnt far off a REVERSE tripole.

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Posted
  • Location: Market Rasen
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Fog Thunderstorms
  • Location: Market Rasen
3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Which "Atlantic" are you referring to?...

anomnight_11_26_2018.thumb.gif.2562b9f48b3060a340b93f783d3db811.gif

Ok I was wrong about the atlantic but usually in most cases when the US is cold we stay on the mild side of the jet and every cold spell the mid and north US have it just fires up the jet stream more I can see us just being in a zonal pattern with westerlies or south westerlies 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Which "Atlantic" are you referring to?...

anomnight_11_26_2018.thumb.gif.2562b9f48b3060a340b93f783d3db811.gif

The annoms- are stale data..in these formats.

And are of reverse...of consiquence!

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
4 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

I really want to be positive I want cold weather but i cant see it happening at the moment especially the runs the gfs was churning out yesterday was as bad as it gets for us coldies 

Don't worry we'll be seeing some cold charts again soon

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Those EC clusters are great ..

A little cautionary note, they're just showing less of a trough at Greenland, not necessarily a strong upper ridge (being anomalies) apologies if preaching to the converted

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We need that bit South of Greenland to warm up pretty soon, as it stands there ,that isnt far off a REVERSE tripole.

dont see that happening..as far as sst goes what we have now is what we will keep for the winter

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Well.. majority cluster (31%) is an Atlantic block, trough to the East likely bringing cold Northerly winds

Clusters.thumb.png.739d725dd4ae39faa2c55cd4fbb9039d.png

Give every cluster this morning was pretty much zonal, this is a positive step forward. Every cluster has heights across Greenland, details with chop and change etc.. but a good, positive step forward.

Though, a few of us have been anticipating that...

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Those EC clusters are great ..

They're dyer by 360 though, Euro high significantly represented.

Spákort gert á VÃ

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

dont see that happening..as far as sst goes what we have now is what we will keep for the winter

That's buggared us then as that +PDO signal will just mean troughs exploding off the Eastern seaboard.

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