The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[carinthian]

Afternoon all. The resort Advent Path opens later this afternoon ,starts in the village square and ends at the hutte on picture below . Always a popular walk for the children and lasts till Christmas Eve. Thick snow on the ground, frosty night air  and the sweet smell of hot glog in the air , a sure sign of Christmas around the corner. Still no change to the last forecast from over here, charts still have a mild period for Southern Britain , less so for Northern Britain out to 168t , then a rise of pressure around the British Isles in period 168t-240t . During this period a sharpening of the Scandinavian trough becoming a feature. Longer term charts 10-15 days , showing some very low temps over Scandinavia to develop during this period with possible encroachment into NE Britain. Still a long way off but one that keeps occurring in their own model ( possible Arctic high showing its hand with a developing Ac air mass to advect SW  following the low pressure / trough disruption  as mentioned. This would be a rare feature but one that would deliver real cold, however, as always the British Isles will be close enough for the Atlantic to repel. Still lots  of chopping and changing over the next day or so but that Arctic high seems very persistent.

Edited November 28, 2018 by carinthian

[karlos1983]

Not much change on the ENS

Status quo for my thoughts 

Edited November 28, 2018 by karlos1983

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Just a quick question for the Mods , how come you can’t see who is viewing this topic at the bottom of the page anymore?? 

Yeah, must admit that featured rocked! 

Can only assume one of the admins disabled it possibly due to what happened yesterday with some of the drama of whether that ECMWF (or GEFS?) mean chart was showing an Easterly or not. Either that, or perhaps it was to save server space and make the site speedier. The latter is usually one of the reasons it gets disabled. Especially if a cold spell is looming and the forum gets a blizzard of users. Though then again, with not much signs of anything that cold for the next few days, that reason would seem to be unlikely. May be worth asking Paul (though I might just bring it up with the moderators/admins).  

Would be nice to see that feature get unearthed again soon, but suppose it’s up to the admins, really.  

Edit: Still not definitely sure if it’s the case, but after enquiring about it, there’s suggestions that the user viewing list at bottom of threads gets automatically shut off when busy. Although I’m not sure that would totally explain why we could still view the user list on the build up to that Easterly a week or two ago when the forum was busy. Will keep this updated if I get any further clarification.

Edited November 28, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine
Adding updates and tweaks

[Mucka]

The search for cold?

The search chopper is getting low on fuel and the light is fading - let's hope we at least spot some wreckage this afternoon and evening. 

ECM would likely go on to give a good Atlantic ridge but that is FI we can't even see.

 

Edited November 28, 2018 by Mucka

[mulzy]

2 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

lol at the number of people taking day 10/12 charts seriously when they can't even get consistency for day 6/7. 

Quite frankly anything past day 6 may as well be drawn by a 5 year old, they're absolutely meaningless given the uncertainty/massive spread within not only the GEFS but the EPS too. 

Of course, we cannot get the finer details at day10/12 nailed but ensemble suites do give us an indication of where the lie of the land is viz. weather conditions.  I am also fully aware that these suites can also flip - however the clear trend over the past few days is for the Atlantic influence to increase.  Any ridging is now *likely* to be transient at best as indicated in the met office long ranger.  In my opinion and as a layman (i.e. not a trained meteorologist), the first 10 days of December are locked into a mild, mobile zonal flow.  CET +1.5 to 2.0 above average.

I would love to be wrong but the writing is clearly on the wall.   

Way too much hope-casting on this thread - yes I know it's the "hunt for cold" but a little realism needs to be exercised!

Edited November 28, 2018 by mulzy

[Spah1]

UK Outlook for Thursday 13 Dec 2018 to Thursday 27 Dec 2018:

The first few days of this period are likely to see an east to west split. Some wet and possibly windy weather is likely in the west, with the east having generally drier weather with some fog, frost and possibly some snow showers too.

Wrong thread but I'm amazed no one has mentioned this. You can only have snow showers in the East from an Easterly wind !

Maybe this!

[MP-R]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 13 Dec 2018 to Thursday 27 Dec 2018:

The first few days of this period are likely to see an east to west split. Some wet and possibly windy weather is likely in the west, with the east having generally drier weather with some fog, frost and possibly some snow showers too.

Wrong thread but I'm amazed no one has mentioned this. You can only have snow showers in the East from an Easterly wind !

Maybe this!

I can't think what type of setup would realistically result in all that happening at the same time lol.

[Chesil View]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 13 Dec 2018 to Thursday 27 Dec 2018:

The first few days of this period are likely to see an east to west split. Some wet and possibly windy weather is likely in the west, with the east having generally drier weather with some fog, frost and possibly some snow showers too.

Wrong thread but I'm amazed no one has mentioned this. You can only have snow showers in the East from an Easterly wind !

Maybe this!

The other thing  spah1 is that the UK is a pretty narrow country even at its widest point. The width of the UK is well within the margin of error for the placement of fronts so just as easy for the split to be west of the UK and more of the UK to be in the possible snow showers bit.

[Snowman.]

Just now, MP-R said:

I can't think what type of setup would realistically result in all that happening at the same time lol.

Battleground set-up. East vs West all depends if the block establishes it self if at all. 

 

I agree with the comments about the ECM it might throw up a ridge which is all we need due to the lack of low heights north it won't take much but we just need the breaks on the Atlantic to give it a chance. Could end up being a waiting game but as long as polar heights continue there is always a chance.

[MP-R]

8 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Battleground set-up. East vs West all depends if the block establishes it self if at all. 

 

I agree with the comments about the ECM it might throw up a ridge which is all we need due to the lack of low heights north it won't take much but we just need the breaks on the Atlantic to give it a chance. Could end up being a waiting game but as long as polar heights continue there is always a chance.

So yes we'd expect different conditions in that case as battlegrounds don't generally result in snow showers in the east while wet and windy in the west.

[BleakMidwinter]

20 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

You can only have snow showers in the East from an Easterly wind !

Well, not necessarily... Telford is in Shropshire, nearly into Wales, distinctly on the Western side of any midline down the UK - and we got snow last year from Easterlies, courtesy of streamers bringing it so far inland, it reached us! So it might be possible to get snow in the East from a non-Eerly...

[Mike Poole]

Some pessimistic, realistic and optimistic posts this morning.  I think that the uncertainty is high at the moment and won't be resolved for a few days.  In the meantime, from a cold perspective, what can we look for in the 12s today?  

To maintain the interest, I'd like to see the following three things, first, the arctic high to continue to show up in most or all of the models, secondly, significant  amplification in all models at some location in the NH, not necessarily local to UK, thirdly, significant amplification in the vicinity of the UK on at least one model, preferably two.

In my view, a cold outcome by mid-December is still very much on the cards, no guarantee, from where we are now, but definitely possible.  Over to the models... 

 

[karyo]

The updated ICON is a bit more appetising than this morning's run. It has weak heights to our north and a more southerly jet and a light easterly flow for the northern half of the country.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0&map=0&archive=0 

[karlos1983]

34 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Some pessimistic, realistic and optimistic posts this morning.  I think that the uncertainty is high at the moment and won't be resolved for a few days.  In the meantime, from a cold perspective, what can we look for in the 12s today?  

To maintain the interest, I'd like to see the following three things, first, the arctic high to continue to show up in most or all of the models, secondly, significant  amplification in all models at some location in the NH, not necessarily local to UK, thirdly, significant amplification in the vicinity of the UK on at least one model, preferably two.

In my view, a cold outcome by mid-December is still very much on the cards, no guarantee, from where we are now, but definitely possible.  Over to the models... 

 

Agree with that totally.

looking through the GEFS (06z)without doing an image of each Purb, there’s only really 3/4 that I looked at and winced.. the rest left me thinking “ok we can work with that”. So definitely Cold outbreak is possible in December. That’s my view anyway. Somewhere near mid month, is my shout! 

Granted many don’t shout freezer, if anything the majority shout confused!

Edited November 28, 2018 by karlos1983

[Mike Poole]

UKMO 12z looks good as far as it goes, developing Arctic high, amplification and no bowling ball lows aimed at us, will take that. T144:

[tight isobar]

Already very intreseting..

Via 'highlighted' snaps...

And ties in with way of thought..

See how we progress here...12z...

 

[Mucka]

33 minutes ago, karyo said:

The updated ICON is a bit more appetising than this morning's run. It has weak heights to our north and a more southerly jet and a light easterly flow for the northern half of the country.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0&map=0&archive=0 

Yes not bad that, let's hope it is a stepping stone

[SLEETY]

snow showers in the East?Thats some big upgrade from METO.What  models are the meto using to see this big change.Must be longer range, model they use,so soon their should be some cold fl looking runs run from gfs ecm?maybe the gfs parallel has been on the money again lol,it’s been showing easterly consistently in fl recently

[Mucka]

 

The old ones are the best

[jules216]

Up until yesterday morning there was a strong signal in extended GEFS and EPS for central EU through and UK high.

The onset date for this pattern to occur was around 7th or 8th December.

now we get this. I know it is only one model and one run, but the trend is for more zonal look on our side of hemisphere.

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Up until yesterday morning there was a strong signal in extended GEFS and EPS for central EU through and UK high.

The onset date for this pattern to occur was around 7th or 8th December.

now we get this. I know it is only one model and one run, but the trend is for more zonal look on our side of hemisphere.

One run

one model

5th dec (you said 7/8th)

fwiw - thats as likely to verity as anything else I’ve seen but why does it mean we will still be zonal a week later ???

[Cheshire Freeze]

Much, much better effort unfolding here

[feb1991blizzard]

12z GFS is very good, lovely ridge being thrown up Iceland, im not too ambitious for next 3 weeks now, certainly not in terms of proper cold, great if i have to eat my words but the main thing is we dont go proper zonal, which could ruin prospects further on, i just want to see ridges being thrown up as high into the pole as possible disrupting the Vortex.

 

Edited November 28, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Much, much better effort unfolding here

Glad somebody else noticed, I was beginning to think I had landed in alternate universe where mild wet and windy was craved here.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

12z GFS is very good, lovely ridge being thrown up Iceland, im not too ambitious for next 3 weeks now, certainly not in terms of proper cold, great if i have to eat my words but the main thing is we dont go proper zonal, which could ruin prospects further on, i just want to see ridges being thrown up as high into the pole as possible disrupting the Vortex.

 

Bang on last eve's ensemble mean at 204 hrs....remember me commenting on that ridge through the UK on the mean anomaly charts?