The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[swfc]

Yes I'd agree with the above comments.guess it's a standard late autumn early winter set up for the UK .The pretty relentless heights over southern and central Europe are slightly annoying.lets hope the touted change in the atmosphere arrives sooner than later if at all.

[mountain shadow]

Terrible runs continuing for cold lovers with no sign even of a mid latitude high with low after low piling in. Serious flooding could become a concern over the next few weeks.

The only plus is the Arctic High persisting which may help us out in getting some proper cold in January.

[shaky]

9 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Even I’m struggling to find anything positive in the hunt for cold today . It’s all looking a bit horrid this morning . Time for a break from model watching . Burnt out already .

Honestly mate i am a pretty posiitive poster on here but theres is nothing to get excited about right now from a coldie perspective!!dont care what is showing up in fantasy island cos its exactly that fantasy!!some of the best cold spells ive seen have come around all of a sudden within a week or so!!january 2013 was one of them with the icelandic heights and sliders!!like i said i live in hope charts change for the better in the next few days!!most certainly dont wana go back to the nineties  with all the good charts stayin in fantasy island all throughout winter!!depressing decade that was snowfall wise!!

[doghouse]

Thank god for Mr Holmes. One of the very few who calls it without bias,bluster or hysteria. Anyone new to this thread should take good heed. Everything else is either nonsense or time honoured house keeping. Be very wary.

[northwestsnow]

Think a moaning thread might be needed soon..

The 00z runs are indeed flat zonal dross.

[KTtom]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

The sheer ferocity of the jet has actually taken me by suprise..

The speed at which these lows are hurtling across the Atlantic is leaving little chance of amplification in the Atlantic sector.

Whats bothering me is the potential colder drier phase is beginning to look like its on shaky ground too!

It also, once again shows either how difficult forecasting is over our neck of the woods....or the Met are useless Only a few days ago the talk was IF the milder westerlies encroach it will be brief...I suspect the next modified text forecast will read IF it turns dryer it will be brief!  I'd love to know what went hopelessly wrong if the latest output verifies. 

[Spanish Dani]

5 minutes ago, KTtom said:

It also, once again shows either how difficult forecasting is over our neck of the woods....or the Met are useless Only a few days ago the talk was IF the milder westerlies encroach it will be brief...I suspect the next modified text forecast will read IF it turns dryer it will be brief!  I'd love to know what went hopelessly wrong if the latest output verifies. 

Yes was hoping for drier weather mid December for when friends come over from Spain but just looking wet and windy now. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think a moaning thread might be needed soon..

The 00z runs are indeed flat zonal dross.

but to be expected for Dec, the 2nd wettest month of the year, behind Jan

[Met4Cast]

I was hoping the ECM clusters could offer some hope into the forums but um..

6 clusters at T360, height rises where we want them in the minority (5%) at this stage, though given the top two clusters are only 25% that doesn't give much confidence to the flatter, Atlantic outcome either. Basically, the models are struggling and quite literally anything could happen.

I'm not giving up all hope on Mid-December just yet, we were expecting wild swings in the outputs and that's what we're seeing. Shannon Entropy is at an all time high, given no real signal for either outcome on the EPS/GEFS anybody claiming "zonal" is a done deal should be a little more cautious, the models could flip back to cold on the next few runs quite easily.

EDIT:

EPO predicted to turn negative as we go into December, that'll create a wave in the jet across America, troughing along the Eastern Seaboard and that's likely in term invigorating the Atlantic jet stream

NAO turns positive as a result and we see our Atlantic themed weather

Signs the EPO wont be negative for too long, however - So I think people calling for weeks and weeks of Atlantic driven weather are likely to be wrong. Patience...

Edited November 28, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[Chesil View]

Even though I,m a fully fledged cold an snow lover. I find it strange that people are bemoaning the current output. 

For the majority of lowland England December seven times out of ten is an Autumn month. Of the the other three in any decade two might be mainly dry but frosty and one might have a snowy feel. Just occasionally once in fifty years or so you might get a Dec 81 or Dec 2010 scenario. 

It's is a far better approach at the start of meteorological winter to expect December to be on mild and stormy side because that is more often than not the way it is. Treat any wintriness in lowland England as bonus to be savoured when it occurs. Not an expectation every time the calendar ticks over to Dec 1st.

It worth remembering that our long lasting winters of legend 47,63,79 etc didn't really get properly in to their stride until late December at the earliest. Worth rembering to that a week before the winter if 1947 started it was 14c  across Southern England.

I know the above gets repeated a lot by us oldies that lived through them but that,s because it,s true.

Don,t give up on winter or thinks it over just because of a week or two of westerly cross in early December 

 

[Coopsy]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Even though I,m a fully fledged cold an snow lover. I find it strange that people are bemoaning the current output. 

For the majority of lowland England December seven times out of ten is an Autumn month. Of the the other three in any decade two might be mainly dry but frosty and one might have a snowy feel. Just occasionally once in fifty years or so you might get a Dec 81 or Dec 2010 scenario. 

It's is a far better approach at the start of meteorological winter to expect December to be on mild and stormy side because that is more often than not the way it is. Treat any wintriness in lowland England as bonus to be savoured when it occurs. Not an expectation every time the calendar ticks over to Dec 1st.

It worth remembering that our long lasting winters of legend 47,63,79 etc didn't really get properly in to their stride until late December at the earliest. Worth rembering to that a week before the winter if 1947 started it was 14c  across Southern England.

I know the above gets repeated a lot by us oldies that lived through them but that,s because it,s true.

Don,t give up on winter or thinks it over just because of a week or two of westerly cross in early December 

 

Very true - I remember Christmas 1986 was a wet and mild affair. We all know what happened the following month

[Duane S.]

5 minutes ago, doghouse said:

Thank god for Mr Holmes. One of the very few who calls it without bias,bluster or hysteria. Anyone new to this thread should take good heed. Everything else is either nonsense or time honoured house keeping. Be very wary.

I think very few people in here were hyping up the next 2 weeks. It had been clear for a while that Atlantic derived weather was the formhorse. The deep cold ship in early December has long since sailed...

The conjecture has been predominantly surrounding what next. i.e. circa mid month onwards.

Just because the jet has been fired up, that doesn't make it automatically weeks on end flat jet zonal, into Xmas and beyond.

The NH profile remains disturbed and one of great interest. IMO the lead up to Christmas period is still completely up for grabs.

Be 'very wary' all you want but also be very wary of writing off a cold returning before Christmas. Kep looking NE over the coming days and week, this is far from a done deal.

[winterof79]

And the near continent continues to cool awaiting for conditions to align as we move through December.

GP et al must wonder if anyone actually reads their posts.

When some of the NWP show cold for a few days it's nailed and when it shows Zonal it's nailed on.

 

Let the polar field reorganize itself and then we move forward

Even the pros forecasts are fluid so let's take a "chill " pill and let things unfold.

[Always a red]

7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

And the near continent continues to cool awaiting for conditions to align as we move through December.

GP et al must wonder if anyone actually reads their posts.

When some of the NWP show cold for a few days it's nailed and when it shows Zonal it's nailed on.

 

Let the polar field reorganize itself and then we move forward

Even the pros forecasts are fluid so let's take a "chill " pill and let things unfold.

Spot on! There are one or 2 posters that will feel like a dog with 2 dangly`s reading this mornings models

The models are so volatile at the moment and lets not forget the weather we are seeing now is typical autumn fare I wouldn`t bet against it all looking different again this time tomorrow based on previous experience only!

[Methuselah]

All going rather daft in here this morning, methinks...Anyone would think it's the fault of the legendary 'one or two posters', that the models are currently indicating something of a poo-fest, over the coming days?

It's weather folks, and it does as it will. Resistance if futile!

[swfc]

Huge difference on the parallel gFS and it's brother.very chaotic tbh

[bluearmy]

Standard net weather over reaction to a couple of less promising suites ..... still six eps clusters post day 10 says it all ......

[tight isobar]

For balance....mod/diverge!!!..

Gfs...264 hrs

Vs..'sister suite ( gfs par)..264..

Highlighting the miss-matching..

Given overheads/polar situ!!!!

Dynamics all over the place...and knee jerk..reactions a little over the top...2 say the least.

Plenty of room for optamism..

And mid nxt month looks the turning point in the road!!

@tweaking @minamal @major prognosis.

Edited November 28, 2018 by tight isobar

[Met4Cast]

Ensembles quite a mixed back going forward with a huge amount of spread starting relatively early on, however there's a few ensembles clustering towards colder solutions later in the run.

Uncertainty is so high anybody claiming zonal is a done deal should maybe prepare for a face full of egg..

EDIT:

These are yesterdays. Wetterzentrale still absolutely sucks

Edited November 28, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[Seasonality]

As already pointed out by @tight isobar the 06z para, the better verifying one, indicates more in the way of amplification moving forward. Check it out and cheer yourselves up a bit.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Ensembles quite a mixed back going forward with a huge amount of spread starting relatively early on, however there's a few ensembles clustering towards colder solutions later in the run.

Uncertainty is so high anybody claiming zonal is a done deal should maybe prepare for a face full of egg..

They're rubbish.

[Iceaxecrampon]

52 minutes ago, Spanish Dani said:

Yes was hoping for drier weather mid December for when friends come over from Spain but just looking wet and windy now. 

Welcome to Britain in Autumn...!

Always wonder how the Romans felt - try Northumbria - charecter building.

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They're rubbish.

Rubbish....???

There as mixed out-and @odds as the ops !!!!

As we stand!

Edited November 28, 2018 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

35 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Rubbish....???

There as mixed out-and @odds as the ops !!!!

As we stand!

How many get the -8c isotherm in - a big fat zero.

Edited November 28, 2018 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Man With Beard]

53 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I was hoping the ECM clusters could offer some hope into the forums but um..

6 clusters at T360, height rises where we want them in the minority (5%) at this stage, though given the top two clusters are only 25% that doesn't give much confidence to the flatter, Atlantic outcome either. Basically, the models are struggling and quite literally anything could happen.

 

I completely agree with your assessment - the ECM is turning to the Atlantic driven option. Just one caveat for me is that the ECM has seriously struggled with the period 6th-11th October, so I'm hesitant to back the ultra Atlantic option just yet.