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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So here's the 00Z at T+384 (para) and, though it looks like a dog's breakfast - the sort of thing that might presage a substantial pattern-change? - one thing remains more-or-less as it was, in earlier runs: the Griceland HP...Best not to read too much into individual runs, methinks?

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight

Still no difference to the overall plan of this winter ACCORDING TO THE LONG RANGE CLIMATE MODELS and the current model output. Still looking mid to late Jan for the good stuff.

Disclaimer

These views are not expressed by myself, my emotion or an abreaction of over excitement. These views are based on different models and conditions currently being presented to us all.

28th Nov.png

3rd Dec.png

11th Dec.png

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

The only thing certain atm is the uncertainty!!Yes for the next 5-7 days we will see a period of pretty wet and windy weather( and pretty mild it has to be said) but after that i would favour a return to drier and slightly cooler weather but not desperatley cold.I know the GFS has shown possibly very cold weather coming in around 8th December onwards on certain runs and trust me i would love them to be right but the one thing missing are lower heights over Central Europe(N Italy area etc) and the Azores High moving and retreating Westwards.I think these 2 points are vital if we are to get a proper cold spell in the UK and if these start trending on a regular basis then so my interest and confidence will increase.I agree we are in a much better position hemispherically compared to last 3 years but it just seems that Cold Decembers are becoming more of a rareity in recent years.On top of that Met Office LR Outlook is a nagging doubt now compared to its bullish outlook a week ago.AS CC has said many times Patience is going to be key here(not what we want to hear i know !!) and it may be Jan & Feb could be the time when we enjoy the cold & snow that most on here crave for . 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
8 minutes ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

Still no difference to the overall plan of this winter ACCORDING TO THE LONG RANGE CLIMATE MODELS and the current model output. Still looking mid to late Jan for the good stuff.

Disclaimer

These views are not expressed by myself, my emotion or an abreaction of over excitement. These views are based on different models and conditions currently being presented to us all.

28th Nov.png

3rd Dec.png

11th Dec.png

Correct me if I’m wrong, but are they not the same model.....

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but are they not the same model.....

Hi Karlos, They are but just at differing time scales. Ill post some others now

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
13 minutes ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

Still no difference to the overall plan of this winter ACCORDING TO THE LONG RANGE CLIMATE MODELS and the current model output. Still looking mid to late Jan for the good stuff.

Disclaimer

These views are not expressed by myself, my emotion or an abreaction of over excitement. These views are based on different models and conditions currently being presented to us all.

28th Nov.png

3rd Dec.png

11th Dec.png

I think this explains my point earlier.On the whole heights are relatively high in Central and Southern Europe although last one does show lowe heights over N Italy/Austria area and Heights seem stronger to our NE over NW Russia.Just need them to move Westwards about 5-700 miles.Maybe baby steps...

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
13 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but are they not the same model.....

If I may Isn't looking great to me. 

ECH1-168 (4).gif

JN192-21.gif

gemnh-0-168.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 hours ago, jules216 said:

From my perspective it's all about learning something new every season. I remember back in 2011 when @Glacier Point did Netweather winter forecast and he mentioned that seasonal forecasts are like A+B+C = D - forecast. If one presumption doesn't happen according to it then whole forecast will most likely be more wrong then right.

For example which teleconnection drives weather on our  side of Atlantic in western Europe mostly: is it tropical forcing(MJO),low solar,stratosphere, or SST? We know some are conductive to blocking and some are not this year. Looking at MJO and forecast from NOAA yesterday they are anticipating robust event through phases 8 to 3. If we look at re-analysis of phases 8 and 1 they show blocking and cold singal in Europe generally. Zonal winds also do not look like interfering much over the coming weeks as they might even trend below average. 

So in my view if this mornings GFS and ECMWF deterministic outputs pan out correctly then MJO presumption will be wrong as they do not show HLB, barely MLB

 

December MJO phase 8 png.png

mjo phase 1 png.png

combphase_noCFSfull.gif

 

Ec mean (and op over our side NH) look like a decent phase 8 mjo representation...... if you think tha the ec output isn’t showing blocking at high latitudes then I’m confused ........

The eps/gems/gefs broadly on the same page through week 2. vortex settling ne of Canada and stretching across to east Asia (as widely predicted).  Questions remain re Western European heights and how strong the jet will be into the Atlantic and at what latitude. Blocking to our north/northeast is likely but clearly it won’t be across the entire area ...... just need to roll a double six to see charts as we saw on yesterday’s gfs 18z come to fruition ..... it helps that we do have two dice !

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight

Below is the JMA long range model (Japanese Model) in order Dec-Feb and the Cansip (Canadian Model) in order Dec-Feb. Ill post some more later when I have time. Each one shows growing signal for blocking from mid Jan onwards and even stronger in Feb. The JMA shows a mid lat high pressure for December but that's for later on in the month and the Canadian clearly shows more zonal for December. There are more models to back this up!!

JMA Dec.png

JMA Jan.png

JMA Feb.png

cansips_Dec.png

cansips_Jan.png

cansips-Feb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
6 minutes ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

Below is the JMA long range model (Japanese Model) in order Dec-Feb and the Cansip (Canadian Model) in order Dec-Feb. Ill post some more later when I have time. Each one shows growing signal for blocking from mid Jan onwards and even stronger in Feb. The JMA shows a mid lat high pressure for December but that's for later on in the month and the Canadian clearly shows more zonal for December. There are more models to back this up!!

JMA Dec.png

JMA Jan.png

JMA Feb.png

cansips_Dec.png

cansips_Jan.png

cansips-Feb.png

Pretty much chimes in with what GP posted last week.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 minutes ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

Below is the JMA long range model (Japanese Model) in order Dec-Feb and the Cansip (Canadian Model) in order Dec-Feb. Ill post some more later when I have time. Each one shows growing signal for blocking from mid Jan onwards and even stronger in Feb. The JMA shows a mid lat high pressure for December but that's for later on in the month and the Canadian clearly shows more zonal for December. There are more models to back this up!!

JMA Dec.png

JMA Jan.png

JMA Feb.png

cansips_Dec.png

cansips_Jan.png

cansips-Feb.png

Indeed SS. As Gavin's video showed, signals now suggest that a 'back-loaded' winter is more likely...

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, Ed Stone said:

Indeed SS. As Gavin's video showed, signals now suggest that a 'back-loaded' winter is more likely...

like backloaded winters, more effective, last years was good

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
11 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Pretty much chimes in with what GP posted last week.

Exactly - it makes more sense, its building now and the models will throw out a few runs trying to get there.

Edited by Shaftesbury Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

Our pray has gotten away from us this month, lets hope later next month that the snares are set properly. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed SS. As Gavin's video showed, signals now suggest that a 'back-loaded' winter is more likely...

I think it is. There maybe some transient colder periods before then but the main pattern change will be in Jan. (based on longer range models...before I get kicked in the balls again)

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
21 minutes ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

Below is the JMA long range model (Japanese Model) in order Dec-Feb and the Cansip (Canadian Model) in order Dec-Feb. Ill post some more later when I have time. Each one shows growing signal for blocking from mid Jan onwards and even stronger in Feb. The JMA shows a mid lat high pressure for December but that's for later on in the month and the Canadian clearly shows more zonal for December. There are more models to back this up!!

JMA Dec.png

JMA Jan.png

JMA Feb.png

cansips_Dec.png

cansips_Jan.png

cansips-Feb.png

Interesting Ian F said also that MetOffice seasonal model MSLP was skewed by -NAO later into Jan and Feb. 

GFS 6z a good position at +192. Should be better run coming up again here.

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

Interesting Ian F said also that MetOffice seasonal model MSLP was skewed by -NAO later into Jan and Feb. 

GFS 6z a good position at +192. Should be better run coming up again here.

I think it is more than likely going to be the case. Its quite unusual to get a prolonged cold period in December, that's not to say its not possible. Recent times we have seen that but most prolonged cold spells have started in Jan or just after Christmas. The NH is all out of sync so there will be all kinds of runs thrown up some look spectacular and some look terrible.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
15 minutes ago, sundog said:

Our pray has gotten away from us this month, lets hope later next month that the snares are set properly. 

Maybe we should 'pray' that our 'prey' gets caught next month? 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

image.thumb.png.503b8ad93f636bce87427c4048dde986.png

No. It wasn't. 

Yes, it was November until mid December (some days even more than 2sd below average) then it picked up and we got zonal for 2 months. December 9-13 were white where I live last year... 

Edited by ArHu3
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