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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

A front loaded winter was much vaunted up until as recently as a week ago. However, during the last week some factors have come into play which have helped to cast doubt on this possibility. The ec46 is one of those factors along with the wqbo/low solar activity combo amongst others. I was perplexed about the consistency of the 'getting colder' meto extended but this was the only thing that kept my hopes up for Dec. Even that has now gone by the wayside. Of course things can and indeed may reverse back to coldie fortunes. However, we have to be realists here. When things flip from cold towards mild and unsettled it is very rare for this to reverse back to cold. We all know that. 

 

image.jpg

You said the other week that the ec46 is rubbish and it’s never close to the mark ? Now your using it to write of a front loaded winter ??? 

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters/Hot summers
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
5 minutes ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

True. I meant no offence and everyone just went mad. I didn't even mention cold weather. I said according to long range models the major pattern change won't be until late Jan and so many mis quoted me tonight

But it would help if you showed some charts to back up what you are saying, all I have seen is comments which could be interpreted as a wind up.  It would help people like myself who struggle to interpret charts to see where you are coming from, and it could be that you are right.  Instead all that happens is the cold v mild arguments ensue, where as if you are able to provide charts to back up what you are saying then nobody can really have an issue!

 

FWIW I believe the models will suddenly start looking increasingly promising in the next few days as BFTP would put it #winterofdiscontent!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Just now, ICE COLD said:

You said the other week that the ec46 is rubbish and it’s never close to the mark ? Now your using it to write of a front loaded winter ??? 

Indeed - it's called the law of sod. Did you read my post at all? 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Stonker incoming GFS T222:

image.thumb.jpg.fe770c28ba7009e3c9c31b87655ae25c.jpg

What's evident is high heights breaking into the pole, what's uncertain is where from and where to, this looks a good cut to me!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I want to be convinced by a model re what it does with the Iberian upper ridge post day 9/10. It will be there for sure

That's a real big issue. We are looking north for heights, and while they appear, without lower heights in Iberian peninsula, we are goosed!

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I want to be convinced by a model re what it does with the Iberian upper ridge post day 9/10. It will be there for sure

And therein lies the problem for the UK in a nutshell. You can rely on a ridge to our south at day 9/10 but certainly not a ridge to the north of us at the same timeframe

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
8 minutes ago, Bobafet said:

But it would help if you showed some charts to back up what you are saying, all I have seen is comments which could be interpreted as a wind up.  It would help people like myself who struggle to interpret charts to see where you are coming from, and it could be that you are right.  Instead all that happens is the cold v mild arguments ensue, where as if you are able to provide charts to back up what you are saying then nobody can really have an issue!

 

FWIW I believe the models will suddenly start looking increasingly promising in the next few days as BFTP would put it #winterofdiscontent!

 

Sure thing

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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters/Hot summers
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
1 minute ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

Sure thing

I would really appreciate it, it will certainly help novices like me!

Edited by Bobafet
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
15 minutes ago, swfc said:

Now winters over really,!!!

Northwest you change your mind by every swing on meto stuff or one run man!! Model output isn't that simple on what bluearmy says even if he is top of his game.for me the run towards the new year looks very unsettled and mild

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

This chart is bonkersl,1055mb Arctic high, if we get to thus point and I'm not saying we will then anything can happen from there( including us ending up on the wrong side of the block) But as the 18z is showing we could see everything fall right

Screenshot_20181126-224526.png

Edited by seabreeze86
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, ribster said:

Speak for yourself Feb, we have gone for a walk on the beach every Christmas day for as far back as I can remember. I shan't be writing off anything just yet, models still have time to conjure up something seasonal for the big day!

Xmas is still possible for some sort of pattern change but you could still have it dry anyway, you could get a brief transient ridge anyway so you might be okay, anyway yes some people go for a walk on the beach xmas day, however, they are few and far between and in any case are usually recaptured very very quickly.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

18z could be a belter. 

gfs-0-300.png?18

gfs-1-300.png?18

Locked and loaded! 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
13 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Chill out mate . Was only saying it’s a bit silly writing of winter / pattern change until the end off January. The long range models are pretty dire if you ask me they chop and change every run . Yes the charts are not good at the min , but to say they won’t change to the end of jan is nuts .

I'm all good mate. To be honest the FI charts differ most of the time from run to run. The long range climate models do show broader patterns and normally not too bad. Not one has shown any blocking (that I've seen) this side of Christmas. The NH is primed I think for the new year. There maybe attempts now which may bring colder spells at times. But I think a stronger more permanent block will happen mid to late Jan into Feb. I can't be sure definitely not like everyone else we all have different opinions and I certainly don't think there won't be any cold around. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

18z looks like it will turn into another barnstormer in FI -For what its worth!

Voila!

gfsnh-0-372_arv9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Pub run finishes with a beautiful craft beer served at the perfect temperature. GFS 18z at T384:

image.thumb.jpg.625e7eb495976cacbc7ec26fee105196.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.0932d515e25ad3c4a3b3ed6379433465.jpg

Cheers! 

Edited by Mike Poole
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