The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

what i have noticed is the amount of -40 850 hpa showing up...looking at the archives that is almost unheard of even in the depths of winter let alone early Dec..there seems to be  lot of very cold air in the NH this year.

Something I noticed a couple of weeks back CM...as you say, the depth of cold about so early on is pretty striking.

[ICE COLD]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Although its probably best not to though.

Thing is tho he didn’t say that . He posted a comment saying that there would be no cold until the end of January . With nothing to back that up . The end of January is like 8/9 weeks away . So that’s why he got jumped on . No one can predict the weather for the next 2 months with any accuracy. Look for weather patterns /trends and even that doesn’t work sometimes. 

Edited November 26, 2018 by ICE COLD

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Thing is tho he didn’t say that . He posted a comment saying that there would be no cold until the end of January . With nothing to back that up . The end of January is like 8/9 weeks away . So that’s why he got jumped on . 

TBH i dont think there will be any deep cold until January.

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

 

 

Edited November 26, 2018 by ICE COLD

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

TBH i dont think there will be any deep cold until January.

And i have no idea what to think-post mobilty i'm still leaning to a sceuro but one that will eventually sink,although i confess that is being driven by the last couple of METO updates,i too would sacrifice Dec for a cold Jan or Feb but i really don't fancy a washout christmas , even in my mid 40s its still a special time of the year, more so to see the younger ones following in our footsteps.

For me wind and rain takes something away from christmas, i'm hoping Exeters long ranger will change over the coming week or so,,

[Thunder Snow]

Off topic forgive me, but has anyone heard from frosty

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

And i have no idea what to think-post mobilty i'm still leaning to a sceuro but one that will eventually sink,although i confess that is being driven by the last couple of METO updates,i too would sacrifice Dec for a cold Jan or Feb but i really don't fancy a washout christmas , even in my mid 40s its still a special time of the year, more so to see the younger ones following in our footsteps.

For me wind and rain takes something away from christmas, i'm hoping Exeters long ranger will change over the coming week or so,,

My thinking for Jan is strat related, if the strat vortex has strengthened with no sign of anyihing  i will be writing off anything until late Feb, regarding xmas, im not sure why dry or wet matters on xmas day itself, your not outdoors anyway,.

[ribster]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

My thinking for Jan is strat related, if the strat vortex has strengthened with no sign of anyihing  i will be writing off anything until late Feb, regarding xmas, im not sure why dry or wet matters on xmas day itself, your not outdoors anyway,.

Speak for yourself Feb, we have gone for a walk on the beach every Christmas day for as far back as I can remember. I shan't be writing off anything just yet, models still have time to conjure up something seasonal for the big day!

[Met4Cast]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

My thinking for Jan is strat related, if the strat vortex has strengthened with no sign of anyihing  i will be writing off anything until late Feb, regarding xmas, im not sure why dry or wet matters on xmas day itself, your not outdoors anyway,.

The Strat & Trop continue to be decoupled, little sign of that changing so whats currently going on in the Strat isn’t too much or a concern. 

Edited November 26, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The Strat & Trop continue to be decoupled, little sign of that changing so whats currently going on in the Strat isn’t too much or a concern. 

Agree, the strat  has and will in the near future undergo some minor warmings / displacements which hopefully will take its toll - good news on that font which is why im still cautiously optimistic for January.

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The Strat & Trop continue to be decoupled, little sign of that changing so whats currently going on in the Strat isn’t too much or a concern. 

Just a quick question. What’s the longest period  the strat and trop have stayed de coupled for in history . And has it ever stayed de coupled for the whole of winter ? Or is that not even possible ? 

[ArHu3]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The Strat & Trop continue to be decoupled, little sign of that changing so whats currently going on in the Strat isn’t too much or a concern. 

When I read that I know the stratosphere is still relatively weak, let's hope it doesn't strengthen because coupling will happen then

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Don said:

I would happily take a mildish December in return for a stonking January/February.

Exactly, Late Jan through to mid March is the most effective if cold setups arrive, cold air will be bitter, from frozen continent, Arctic colder too, and the seas

[Met4Cast]

5 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

When I read that I know the stratosphere is still relatively weak, let's hope it doesn't strengthen because coupling will happen then

Strat Vortex was the strongest in recorded history for the time of year at one point, still no downwelling..

Largely thanks to continued heat flux from the Troposphere up into the Strat

[bluearmy]

Nothing obvious on the ec46 out to week 5 to raise the excitement of the coldies .......

[northwestsnow]

Have to say looking at 18z the next week or so looks pretty dire.

Just now, bluearmy said:

Nothing obvious on the ec46 out to week 5 to raise the excitement of the coldies .......

Which backs up Exeters musings and kind of places our anticipation that we might be in a much better place in a week or so time in serious jeopardy..

[Ventnor Viking]

1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Thing is tho he didn’t say that . He posted a comment saying that there would be no cold until the end of January . With nothing to back that up . The end of January is like 8/9 weeks away . So that’s why he got jumped on . No one can predict the weather for the next 2 months with any accuracy. Look for weather patterns /trends and even that doesn’t work sometimes. 

He as in me did back it up though. I said long range models!!! Plus where did i say there would be no cold? Quote me saying that!! I never said that not once So back off now I'm tired of people making rubbish up on here tonight

Now everyone else is saying it and actually not backing it up.

Edited November 26, 2018 by Shaftesbury Snow

[Ventnor Viking]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Although its probably best not to though.

True. I meant no offence and everyone just went mad. I didn't even mention cold weather. I said according to long range models the major pattern change won't be until late Jan and so many mis quoted me tonight

[swfc]

So I take it things aren't looking great this evening chill out its only November Fgs.tamara said let the weather forecast 's do its dance and see what happens.still stands true even with all the background signals!!!

[blizzard81]

A front loaded winter was much vaunted up until as recently as a week ago. However, during the last week some factors have come into play which have helped to cast doubt on this possibility. The ec46 is one of those factors along with the wqbo/low solar activity combo amongst others. I was perplexed about the consistency of the 'getting colder' meto extended but this was the only thing that kept my hopes up for Dec. Even that has now gone by the wayside. Of course things can and indeed may reverse back to coldie fortunes. However, we have to be realists here. When things flip from cold towards mild and unsettled it is very rare for this to reverse back to cold. We all know that. 

 

Edited November 26, 2018 by blizzard81

[Mike Poole]

Not sure this 18z run is going for the best place here at T180, looks like the arctic height rise might just shear the head off the bunny rabbit?

[ICE COLD]

9 minutes ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

He as in me did back it up though. I said long range models!!! So back off......

Now everyone else is saying it and actually not backing it up.

Chill out mate . Was only saying it’s a bit silly writing of winter / pattern change until the end off January. The long range models are pretty dire if you ask me they chop and change every run . Yes the charts are not good at the min , but to say they won’t change to the end of jan is nuts .

[feb1991blizzard]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Have to say looking at 18z the next week or so looks pretty dire.

Which backs up Exeters musings and kind of places our anticipation that we might be in a much better place in a week or so time in serious jeopardy..

18z looks like it will turn into another barnstormer in FI -For what its worth!

[swfc]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Is that a 1060mb Siberian high on EC tonight??

If so that is absolutely huge !!

By day 10 i predict Atlantic energy to start splitting..n

Now winters over really,!!!

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

18z looks like it will turn into another barnstormer in FI -For what its worth!

Trust gfs at your peril in situations like this.