The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[The Eagle]

ECM is your friend. 

 

If it's not on board, i'm not on board. 

[Met4Cast]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I'm going to wait for the para, and see whether the 'trend' its 06Z suggested is real or just another pipe dream...It's far too soon for getting over-excited, methinks?

I disagree, myself and several others have been saying for a few days that the models would soon switch to increasingly colder/more blocked solutions and that's exactly what appears to be happening.

Sure, no real consistency on how the cold/blocking sets up but there doesn't need to be, the general trend towards blocking is what we've been waiting for and today, the first real signs of it showing up.

[mulzy]

1 hour ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Whilst the most of us wait for cold, at least the weather doesn't look boring, with frequent bouts of wind and rain crossing the country for the next week or so. Luvvly Jubbly.

 

Let's agree to disagree!

If we can't have cold and snow then sunny and dry is the next best option.  Wet and windy is horrible!!

Edited November 26, 2018 by mulzy

[Midlander]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I disagree, myself and several others have been saying for a few days that the models would soon switch to increasingly colder/more blocked solutions and that's exactly what appears to be happening.

Sure, no real consistency on how the cold/blocking sets up but there doesn't need to be, the general trend towards blocking is what we've been waiting for and today, the first real signs of it showing up.

I personally would urge caution when looking at such charts in the unreliable time frame. We have just gone through a period of very frustrating model watching with people sharing 'Wintry' synoptic in FL, but as we now, this was not the outcome, far from it. So I think it is just and reasonable to have such level of scepticism when viewing charts far into the future.  

[feb1991blizzard]

Pretty bog standard for the time of year.

[feb1991blizzard]

Some good news though, the parallel is a stonker.

[Met4Cast]

My god.. walk about WAA directly into the Arctic on the GFSP

[Methuselah]

20 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I disagree, myself and several others have been saying for a few days that the models would soon switch to increasingly colder/more blocked solutions and that's exactly what appears to be happening.

Sure, no real consistency on how the cold/blocking sets up but there doesn't need to be, the general trend towards blocking is what we've been waiting for and today, the first real signs of it showing up.

I guess that, at the end of the day, whether or not you and I agree, or disagree, won't matter: the weather will do what the weather will do...Resistance is futile!

Edited November 26, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Some good news though, the parallel is a stonker.

The low coming out of Newfoundland looks to be stopping the high going further north on this run so close to the real cold air

[ArHu3]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I guess that, at the end of the day, whether or not you and I agree, or disagree, won't matter: the weather will do what the weather will do...Resistance in futile!

I always got the impression Tamara and Glacier point were in control

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The low coming out of Newfoundland looks to be stopping the high going further north on this run so close to the real cold air

The problem is by 300 the low to the S of Greenland is moving East too fast and may mean the cold air to the East cant make it to our shores - a shame because at one stage that run looked like a Jan 1987 run.

[Mike Poole]

GEM decent at T240, really significant change on the models for this 12z set, as many of us were waiting for, it is just that now the models can see past the previous pattern change that led to the Atlantic dominated weather we are about to experience...if that makes sense!

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I guess that, at the end of the day, whether or not you and I agree, or disagree, won't matter: the weather will do what the weather will do...Resistance in futile!

The difference is i suppose - you are measured and wont kid yourself so the pram game wont start when it becomes apparent it aint going to happen, where as with me in years gone by and a lot of others still.................

[feb1991blizzard]

Battleground coming up on GFS(p)

[Met4Cast]

A few things I expect in the coming days;

1. NO consistency between runs in FI. Likely to see varying cold solutions/mild solutions (very high Shannon Entropy)

2. No solid ensemble support, but likely a downwards trend emerging at the end of the runs by Fri/Sat

3. Cold solutions not really coming out of FI for a while

I still think the models are being too progressive with the blocking/cold. I think 15th-20th is when the switch will happen, the signal is there, they're just perhaps a little fast with it.

[nick sussex]

After several days of Spam the GFS has moved on to something a lot more palatable.

The evolution is something we’ve seen many times with the high being sucked north and a shortwave cutting back sw through Scandi .

The issue is always trying to get the direct hit of cold uppers. 

That’s still a way ahead though . Let’s just hope the ECM doesn’t dish out Spam tonight !

 

 

Edited November 26, 2018 by nick sussex

[Methuselah]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

The difference is i suppose - you are measured and wont kid yourself so the pram game wont start when it becomes apparent it aint going to happen, where as with me in years gone by and a lot of others still.................

My teddy has been known to take a flying leap too, feb!

[Met4Cast]

Meanwhile, GFSP brings probably a foot of snow to wherever the Atlantic/Cold boundary ends up

[Tim Bland]

Nice

[ArHu3]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The difference is i suppose - you are measured and wont kid yourself so the pram game wont start when it becomes apparent it aint going to happen, where as with me in years gone by and a lot of others still.................

I still can't really read the models but from observing the model thread I can read the certainty of a cold spell or the hopelessness of the situation (when you know who starts talking that we just need a little shortwave there, I can tell the situation is pretty dire or when another person abandons the model thread cold is coming...)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Meanwhile, GFSP brings probably a foot of snow to wherever the Atlantic/Cold boundary ends up

on the anniversary of last years snow! still remember the excitement on here a week before and right up to the event! slider near enough perfectly placed for my location, 50 miles further north, then here would have been sweet spot for over a foot

[sorepaw1]

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Some good news though, the parallel is a stonker.

Feb... if the easterly come off on or around T+192 and beyond 

On the 12z would it be colder than this easterly we've just had.

[Stuie]

I don`t care if this is FI and I am willing to eat spam for a month if we could get to this point....

 

[Mapantz]

Right.. let's get back to what's important in this thread, discussing the model output. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ok if someone can post the t336 chart on GFS (p)......my IPad and Netweather aren’t getting on.  That is SNOWMAGEDDON, bitter deep cold from east, Atlantic LP hitting and sliding.....perfection.  There seems to be a little momentum gathering here, it starts with the second LP following the first storm, signs of elongation and disruption with Atlantic ridge developing behind and UKMO t144 shows it nicely....this will lead to futher disruption and the opportunity for the  ridge to link up into Scandi......after GFS 00z horror show....what a recovery.  Like I said....I anticipate it to be a blip mild incursion....although my ‘main event ‘ remains over Xmas.....but that will require the cold theme to be very much in evidence even if it’s on and off.....but prevalent

 

BFTP

Edited November 26, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST