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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

gfs has the  right  idea,trying to get the high to retrogress towards greenland .Could be a belter fl coming up

Yes I'm pleased with thus run. More amplified and better snow options (for Central Europe anyway).

gfsnh-0-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
8 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Late January?

More like late next week according to this GFS.

That's the problem we get caught up in FI and take it as gospel

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Welcome to Griceland!:cold:

Netweather GFS Image

Netweather GFS Image

Much like what the para was picking-up on its 06Z run? Pay attention, children!:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

I remain very sceptical, and at the moment as there are more milder options than colder options looking at the ensembles. 
I also worry that the high may sink down, we've been here before a few weeks ago so will not put to much confidence on it unless it gets into the reliable. Please use caution when looking at charts in FL.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Retrogression 

B73AE603-6DE3-4240-B5A2-713882834AE7.thumb.png.6870331bd1c88d2db8809cac0cbc3eb0.png

It was a great run from day 8 for coldies, the cold uppers didn’t really kick in due to the WAA linking a little unfavourabley with Siberian heights - this was very close to a much colder run.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
5 minutes ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

That's the problem we get caught up in FI and take it as gospel

FI won't ever verify but the ensembles are actually quite good at picking up pattern changes. (and unfortunately often a tendency to overamplify, especially EC, whereas gfs has a more zonal flat bias) 

Edited by ArHu3
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Likewise, some get caught up being taken in by the endless mobile/mild westerly/southwesterly charts into FI on GFS and resign to the idea that it won't change too. Not saying the 12z GFS op FI will definitely come off, but not expecting, for now, mild/mobile all through December.

If that op is backed up by 50% or more GEFS members i might take notice, however, i think anyone who is relying on deep cold setting up this side of xmas, is heading for a fall IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
44 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

not exactly a surprise is it!

its all relative...the weather i have now would be classed as bitterly cold in the UK..but here it is pretty average..so when i say very cold..im talking temps you would never see back home.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
22 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

yes nearly there at 252 hours let’s hope it’s a new trend it’s found

 

Easterly incoming!! We are on the train again⛸️

yes hopefully, and no Atlantic

gfs-0-252.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, I'm going to wait for the para, and see whether the 'trend' its 06Z suggested is real or just another pipe dream...It's far too soon for getting over-excited, methinks?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS Para now sniffing the Scandi ridge Arctic high combo

gfsnh-0-168.png?12

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

The 0z is better at Day 10 currently...

cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

...but significantly worse at Day 10 on the 12z runs...

cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

So who knows? Presumably they are still messing with it prior to putting it live so perhaps comparisons are unfair, but it doesn't look like the big improvement you'd hope.

 

Few weeks ago it was significantly better than GFS and beating ECM at day 10 and also good in late summer I believe, swings and roundabouts with these things, always. 

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