The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Walsall Wood Snow said:

You have said recently though that you're expecting January to be the month of this coming Winter. If you still think that's the case hopefully what it's like in early December shouldn't matter too much?

 

Indeed 

Just an observation

[bluearmy]

Anyway .... the extended eps and other ens remain generally on the same hemispheric page .... the sceuro trough on the eps solid with high heights to our northeast east of Svalbard and a fairly active looking Atlantic jet headed east and then diving se into Europe 

plenty likely to be going on through week 2 to keep the conversation away from n American uppers ! 

[Don]

37 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another theory i have Aaron is that lately we seem to have high SSTs in the North Pacific - the PDO region if you like, promoting high pressure in W USA so the trough drops so low in E USA, then fires up the Jet to prevent us getting similar over here.

This is a concern for the winter as we had a similar profile in 2013 which fired up the jet stream and gave us that atrocious winter!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Don said:

This is a concern for the winter as we had a similar profile in 2013 which fired up the jet stream and gave us that atrocious winter!

A point so good it needed to be made  4 times!!!

[Don]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A point so good it needed to be made  4 times!!!

Not sure what happened there!!  Apologies!

You’re correct it’s a good point though 

 

Edited November 25, 2018 by Don

[Methuselah]

I honestly don't understand how we are all getting so fractious about the lack of snow-prospects...in November! It's hardly as if snowfall, in December, impacts on future events, is it?

Indeed, some of our most memorable winters were been-and-gone long before the end of January: 1981-2 and 2010-11 stand out as perfect examples of this. On the other hand, quite a few early pre-Christmas falls have been followed by indifferent winters: 1965, 1970, 1988? Then again, Decembers of 1962 and 1978 had nothing out of the ordinary...Before the Big Day.

Don't worry about it. Do what I do: watch Nordic noir, and get plenty of lamppost-watching practise...?

[lassie23]

One weather organization has already predicted a similar winter to 2013-2014, new ice age on hold i think.

[Don]

5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

One weather organization has already predicted a similar winter to 2013-2014, new ice age on hold i think.

Glad I live 400 feet above sea level then.  Which weather organisation is this?

Edited November 25, 2018 by Don

[Newberryone]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Looks good if you happen to live in the far N of Norway...

Though I'm liking the look of HP ridging up towards the UK...if we can't have snowy, I'd rather have it not rainy and damp right now.

Wash out your mouth CreweCold for personally speaking I find the whole notion of a pressure rise from the south distasteful and downright nauseating, especially at this time of year. If we can't have snowy, I'd rather a turbulent Atlantic and an unstable atmosphere, far more preferable than being stuck under a boring Euro Slug high bringing total nothingness... 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Wash out your mouth CreweCold for personally speaking I find the whole notion of a pressure rise from the south distasteful and downright nauseating, especially at this time of year. If we can't have snowy, I'd rather a turbulent Atlantic and an unstable atmosphere, far more preferable than being stuck under a boring Euro Slug high bringing total nothingness... 

Agree with quoted post fully! bring on the euro high, zonality wind and rain sucks

[markw2680]

16 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Wash out your mouth CreweCold for personally speaking I find the whole notion of a pressure rise from the south distasteful and downright nauseating, especially at this time of year. If we can't have snowy, I'd rather a turbulent Atlantic and an unstable atmosphere, far more preferable than being stuck under a boring Euro Slug high bringing total nothingness... 

Yeah I also think this, I’d rather some stormy weather than just cold foggy calm stuff every day

[DanBaynes]

Great discussion in here tonight @feb1991blizzard, @bluearmy, @CreweCold. I'm not knowledgeable enough to add anything further but great read whilst we have a lull in the hunt

[northwestsnow]

EC mean looks a bit better this evening, solid signal that HP is going to be ridging in to the UK by day 10 onwards and a relaxation of the Atlantic..

[ArHu3]

 

Gfs 18z suddenly comes with a little storm in only 36h, hopefully it will shake the cards a bit in our favor 

Edited November 25, 2018 by ArHu3

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Landmass will undoubtedly play a part, as discussed. However, I'd be shocked if what we are witnessing recently is wholly a landmass issue.

I think it's down to two things, Crewe: the depth of cold, at source, and the lack of any open sea-track, thereafter...It can't be a coincidence that some of the UK's very coldest uppers originate from Siberia, in late winter, when open water is at its minimum extent...?

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Gfs 18z suddenly comes with a little storm in only 36h, hopefully it will shake the cards a bit in our favor 

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018112518/gfseu-0-36.png?18

Was that not there already on the 12z run

[ArHu3]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Was that not there already on the 12z run

 

I was just trying to grab the corresponding 12z but it's a bit hard on mobile 

[Nick F]

The above tweet backs the idea of a coherent MJO through phases that support a return of blocking, usually P8-1 translates to height rises to our NE initially as we head through early to mid December, though perhaps not until mid December given the lag, before blocking perhaps retrogrades. Lets hope there's deeper cold tap into this time. At least the upcoming mobile, mild and unsettled spell may not have legs, with more and more hints from the operationals and ensembles that something maybe afoot in line with what I've just mentioned.

[northwestsnow]

GFS also sniffing out the change at around 192 hours tonight and also has the Arctic high for the 1st time.

[JeffC]

9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The above tweet backs the idea of a coherent MJO through phases that support a return of blocking, usually P8-1 translates to height rises to our NE initially as we head through early to mid December, though perhaps not until mid December given the lag, before blocking perhaps retrogrades. Lets hope there's deeper cold tap into this time. At least the upcoming mobile, mild and unsettled spell may not have legs, with more and more hints from the operationals and ensembles that something maybe afoot in line with what I've just mentioned.

Forgive the naivety of this question but how does that compare to 2009 where a very zonal spell in mid November acted as a trigger to much colder conditions about 10 days later?

Edited November 25, 2018 by JeffC

[northwestsnow]

Looks very good at 225 , if we could somehow rid ourselves of that low north of Iceland then the emerging azores high could link with the arctic high and bingo!!

Probably won't happen but ..

[Mike Poole]

Is this now the earliest run we've seen the potential for the Arctic high, pub run T222:

this looks like being the next step, the one after to where still uncertain.

Edited November 25, 2018 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks very good at 225 , if we could somehow rid ourselves of that low north of Iceland then the emerging azores high could link with the arctic high and bingo!!

Probably won't happen but ..

[Rocheydub]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

People say it's about location...but not sure I agree 100%. America has a large coastline facing out towards the Pacific Ocean yet they can still get frigid uppers pushing a long way south. It's not just about ocean vs landmass it's about where troughing is repeatedly dropping and where ridging is setting up. Over the past decade we're seeing the trough dropping repeatedly a long way S over there. There is no reason why we couldn't see the same thing happening here...but we just don't for whatever reason.

The only perfectly aligned trough dropping over the UK in recent memory was December 2010...and that brought us some of the conditions we would expect with such a set up...

North Atlantic Drift has a huge amount to play in that as our weather is western driven usually. Hence our usual weather in winter has regular RPM patterns that are diluted by warmer seas. So location has obviously a lot to do with it!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Going the RIGHT way in FI on this run...jet buckling, and WAA heading straight through the UK. Could pump up a Scandinavian heights deeper into FI