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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Pretty good 12z on gFS at day ten granted.forcing from  Azores, arctic and pacific.hopefully a trend

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GFS setting up the anticyclone by day 10 but the profile to the N/NW looks horrid, and added to the newly updated METO outlook i'm left wondering if we are going to end up with a euro/securo high s(t)inker?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, booferking said:

This could be a very frausting Winter the chase could go on into Jan for anything that represents anything notable "snow wise" met office update is horrid.

And charts like below don't excit me at all.

Screenshot_20181125-170735_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181125-170849_Chrome.jpg

There's nowt like a good 'frausting', bk; it's what posh people see on their lawns, come a very cold morning!:drunk-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

I wouldn't be getting too hung up on charts appearing in FI at the moment.

I,m not  expecting the background signals to be nudging the medium/longer range ops towards anything genuinely cold until towards the end of this week at the earliest.

As for the Met office extended. It's just a question of covering all the bases for now,it could well that their model has a more 50/50 feel about it today than it did yesterday. However if our background signals start pushing the ops towards a more genuinely wintry outcome then the extended meto outlook will change in line with that forcing as well.

An interesting few weeks coming up as we head towards Christmas and New year I think.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3 going cross polar at T228:

image.thumb.jpg.e45618a610a048d83f7d200f25554898.jpg

like a butterfly with the left antenna missing...

Aye-aye, same run T300:

image.thumb.jpg.8fae45cb38d983e146141035ab64d33e.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
16 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

 

As for the Met office extended. It's just a question of covering all the bases for now,it could well that their model has a more 50/50 feel about it today than it did yesterday. However if our background signals start pushing the ops towards a more genuinely wintry outcome then the extended meto outlook will change in line with that forcing as well. 

Met office forecast seems to be quite accurate at predicting patterns zonal vs blocked but it seems to have more problems predicting the level of the block (predicted hlb often ends up boring MLB

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, bluearmy said:

Why all the despair??

Because we're  a fickle bunch Blue, you know that! 

On a serious note, i suspect a combination of the 12z GFS (yes i know.one op), with the wording on Exeters latest update in tandom is suggestive of a sinking High with the jet over the top..

I was hoping the longer term would be suggestive of something more favourable and Exeters musings are now aligned to the BBC monthly...

Of course we have the last Glosea update suggesting the complete opposite to what Exeter are now forecasting, so maybe Glosea has flipped? 

From my perspective it probably creates a lot more doubt longer term, i accept we are on the cusp of a westerly pattern, my hopes/expectations were that we would see some high latitude blocking thereafter, of course we still could..

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Because we're  a fickle bunch Blue, you know that! 

On a serious note, i suspect a combination of the 12z GFS (yes i know.one op), with the wording on Exeters latest update in tandom is suggestive of a sinking High with the jet over the top..

I was hoping the longer term would be suggestive of something more favourable and Exeters musings are now aligned to the BBC monthly...

Of course we have the last Glosea update suggesting the complete opposite to what Exeter are now forecasting, so maybe Glosea has flipped? 

From my perspective it probably creates a lot more doubt longer term, i accept we are on the cusp of a westerly pattern, my hopes/expectations were that we would see some high latitude blocking thereafter, of course we still could..

I suspect that we have to be mindful here that about 75% of the seasonal models are predicting a trough dominated start to the winter for the UK. That is a pretty universal signal. In fact, a lot of the seasonal modelling is suggestive of January onwards being the main point of wintry promise. I'd say 80/90% of the seasonal modelling at present suggests February to be a month which will see an enhanced risk of high latitude blocking. As I've repeatedly said, patience will be the key this winter. 

From my perspective, waiting until February for the good stuff is not ideal- I prefer my winter weather in December and January, but I do suspect we'll see some decent attempts in January. 

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Pacific ridging towards Alaska seems the strongest trend in the gefs week 2 anomalies.

gensnh-21-5-300.thumb.png.e0e99f16deaad5fd3ed5a89b10d576fb.png

with signs of a weaker Atlantic giving a window for some heights around our locale.However the weak +ve ht anomalies across the pole doesn't scream blocking further north as yet. 

I suspect a high around the UK area with possible fog and frost may well the best hope for anything colder for the time being.The 2m temperature graph in later ens outputs do take a bit of a dip to something we have had recently so this seems a realistic option.

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
4 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

I suspect a high around the UK area with possible fog and frost may well the best hope for anything colder for the time being.The 2m temperature graph in later ens outputs do take a bit of a dip to something we have had recently so this seems a realistic option.

Agree, and it is something I pointed out as a viable option a couple of weeks back

Edited by phil nw.
correction to my op
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Agree, and it is something I pointed out as a viable option a couple of weeks back

As did I and I think the question about the mid-latitude block is whether it will end up right over the British isles or perhaps just to the west which wouldn't be ideal for cold weather fans.

By mid December inversion will be a powerful weapon for those wanting fog or frost and ice days are entirely possible.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
1 hour ago, booferking said:

Lol frustrating☺

Agreed, frausting is frustrating 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Here's the para T+384: nowt to get excited about, but no reason to reach for the antidepressants, either?

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3 12z strat outlook at T384, up to -16 again.

image.thumb.jpg.f2fd11ee8f055762bd0aedc9cf01cc5d.jpg

The reason I am posting these strat charts regularly from the FV3 are twofold:

First, forecasts for the strat are reliable into much longer timescales than for the trop, yes there are red herrings, but in my experience every true SSW has been counted down from T384...

Second, the GFS used to pick these up but the FV3 remains at high resolution (~13km) right to day 16, no drop in resolution, so if we're going to see evidence of a coming SSW we're going to see it on this model first, I think.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
42 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

FV3 12z at T336, full on Greenland high, get in there, back of the net!

image.thumb.jpg.0690b75f6177f4eb8267ffe502a5ad77.jpg

 

Looks very brief with the gap closing soon after. Needs some WAA to maintain it 

2597334B-C934-45ED-80C5-94D9AC2D8907.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks very brief with the gap closing soon after. Needs some WAA to maintain it 

Yep, we'd need to see how that played out but it's so far out it won't happen quite like that anyway, but if it did, FV3 sees it this way at T384:

image.thumb.jpg.23754521de984fcefe9529b578264dd6.jpg

Narrow corridor I would agree!

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Ok so the models are not looking great atm but as we no they can change very quick, what baffles me is the negative comments tbh it’s bloody November not end of jan or anything, how often in reality do we get cold and snow before end of December really?

just chill and see what unfolds in the next 2 weeks

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Ec not letting this Arctic high go- now at 192 and starting to have an impact perhaps..

temps dropping as the high ridges over the UK at 216..

Edited by northwestsnow
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