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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Warm/Dry enough for a t-shirt. Winter: Cold enough for a scarf.
  • Location: Gourock 10m asl
25 minutes ago, Surrey said:

If my memory is correct winter 17/18 didn't start to get going until Mid Jan with a pretty unsettled December apart from a few rouge snow days... 

 

I actually think our seasons are moving around and winter is the most affected..Winter for me really I don't start looking till Early Jan and anything before that is a bonus.. 

 

April now holds more snow than December does!  

 

Never eat red snow!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Never eat red snow!

Wouldn't that be la neige rouge (50cm) on the Arpege?:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Following on from the general theme on uncertainty D10 onwards. Spot the difference.... ?

00z GFSOPNH00_300_1.thumb.png.ffb701e996437d73e18059238cfc9d81.png

 

06z GFSOPNH06_288_1.thumb.png.416a02f5007295235ca9a2d44539a89b.png

(answer - umm, just about everything)

Edited by s4lancia
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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
15 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Following on from the general theme on uncertainty D10 onwards. Spot the difference.... ?

00z GFSOPNH00_300_1.thumb.png.ffb701e996437d73e18059238cfc9d81.png

 

06z GFSOPNH06_288_1.thumb.png.416a02f5007295235ca9a2d44539a89b.png

(answer - umm, just about everything)

Very much in line with what @bluearmyhad mentioned on previous page, with split vortex and arctic high becoming a growing feature. 

Edited by Bullseye
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Very much in line with what @bluearmyhad mentioned on previous page, with spilt vortex and arctic high becoming a growing feature. 

That gfs fi run is pretty much inline with the extended ens and fits quite well with the eps control 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So the GFS ends with a re-emergence of the Azores-Scandi ridge? Let's just hope that it re-emerges more often, over the coming days, as it could lead to something special. Or to nothing at all!:cold:

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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So the GFS ends with a re-emergence of the Azores-Scandi ridge? Let's just hope that it re-emerges more often, over the coming days, as it could lead to something special. Or to nothing at all!:cold:

You kind of want to see what happens next... Really hate it when a run ends like that.. I know its all FI stuff and will look completely different come the 12z but its nice to see.. 

I think this will really test the trust we put into longer range forecasting over the next 15-30 days.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

All this talk of zonal has got me scared, what I'm after is dry, preferably not windy either. Dear learned people, what are the chances of next Saturday (1st) being a dry, benign day? I'm doing a xmas market, slap bang on top of the Mendips, it's an outdoor event and I could really do without it blowing a hoolie and peeing with rain. Help! Reassure this nervous person please, or at least give me an informed low down so I can adequately prepare if need be.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
8 minutes ago, jethro said:

All this talk of zonal has got me scared, what I'm after is dry, preferably not windy either. Dear learned people, what are the chances of next Saturday (1st) being a dry, benign day? I'm doing a xmas market, slap bang on top of the Mendips, it's an outdoor event and I could really do without it blowing a hoolie and peeing with rain. Help! Reassure this nervous person please, or at least give me an informed low down so I can adequately prepare if need be.

A quick scan through the models shows we might be between lows next Saturday so a lull in the storms is possible

ecm2.2018120100_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.30c149747b3e1bb8d2a863f9f74a9def.pngukm2.2018120100_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.244f08700892c9ffbbae332b48de8e32.png

gfs2.2018120100_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.042b8e51c4539a8bee4896ff0c3bb794.pngfv3e.2018120100_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.694bdc9e67c03e8c816e573553d6a7ea.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
Just now, Summer Sun said:

A quick scan through the models shows we might be between lows next Saturday so a lull in the storms is possible

ecm2.2018120100_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.30c149747b3e1bb8d2a863f9f74a9def.pngukm2.2018120100_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.244f08700892c9ffbbae332b48de8e32.png

gfs2.2018120100_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.042b8e51c4539a8bee4896ff0c3bb794.pngfv3e.2018120100_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.694bdc9e67c03e8c816e573553d6a7ea.png

 

Thank you, thank, you, thank you, to both you and the weather gods!

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
1 hour ago, s4lancia said:

Following on from the general theme on uncertainty D10 onwards. Spot the difference.... ?

00z GFSOPNH00_300_1.thumb.png.ffb701e996437d73e18059238cfc9d81.png

 

06z GFSOPNH06_288_1.thumb.png.416a02f5007295235ca9a2d44539a89b.png

(answer - umm, just about everything)

Further to this, I give you the GFS(p)...

GFSPARANH06_288_1.thumb.png.dcfa1616492f9297886eb61f42ce85ba.png

Aaaand so we are taken on yet another journey.

The only real thing in common of course, is the split vortex and the subsequent pin the tail on the donkey malarkies that will inevitably follow on.

 

Edited by s4lancia
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
36 minutes ago, jethro said:

All this talk of zonal has got me scared, what I'm after is dry, preferably not windy either. Dear learned people, what are the chances of next Saturday (1st) being a dry, benign day? I'm doing a xmas market, slap bang on top of the Mendips, it's an outdoor event and I could really do without it blowing a hoolie and peeing with rain. Help! Reassure this nervous person please, or at least give me an informed low down so I can adequately prepare if need be.

You want dry, preferably not windy weather, where have you been all year?  As is the want of the British climate, your day will be anything but what you expect I guess, but more hopefully what you want it to be.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
26 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Further to this, I give you the GFS(p)...

GFSPARANH06_288_1.thumb.png.dcfa1616492f9297886eb61f42ce85ba.png

Aaaand so we are taken on yet another journey.

The only real thing in common of course, is the split vortex and the subsequent pin the tail on the donkey malarkies that will inevitably follow on.

 

To be fair FI at +384 is different on every run - this is not unusual. 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

 Although I mentioned end of month a watch period with potential deep LP hitting us, I certainly didn’t expect a SW/NE tracking LP........not a pretty sight from cold point of view.  A quick turnaround could (and should) happen once we get into this situation (say around 5th Dec).  Will we see a GFS(p)? Or indeed 06z.....I say yes.  This is imo a blip coming.   Well the way the models adjusted over the current set up we at least mustn’t ‘just assume’ that GFS 00z op type run is correct.   

 

 BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The most significant warming in the strat signalled yet that I've seen at the end of the FV3, this has appeared on a number of GFS and FV3 runs in huge last couple of days:

image.thumb.jpg.bde9ad9ff64207f04077eb1c4cb884d7.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
31 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

To be fair FI at +384 is different on every run - this is not unusual. 

Yes indeed. Albeit the charts I am showing are D12, not D16.

I would expect a fair bit more in common at this stage. Both are still 'FI', yes, but there is an big exponential difference between +384 and +288 charts, in terms of likely accuracy.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
2 hours ago, gottolovethisweather said:

You want dry, preferably not windy weather, where have you been all year?  As is the want of the British climate, your day will be anything but what you expect I guess, but more hopefully what you want it to be.

If xmas markets were held during the summer, I'd be home and dry (so to speak) don't think it would do much for sales though. Top of the Mendips is seriously unpleasant if the weather's grim, personally love the wildness of it but not good for market stalls!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I'm feeling more positive with the 12s so far, although not once have I looked at the UK region!  We're not at that point yet.  ICON hints at polar high developing at T180, I was not expecting signals of this so soon, but GEM is there too at same time, and then some:

image.thumb.jpg.3f81bdf678c4851e8da4548b73587e67.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.77507cd7d500c6317542920a2a54bba8.jpg

UKMO tells us nothing really in its short run. GFS taking a little longer but getting amplified at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.229de8f5ed15eee504d7f49fedd135f3.jpg

GEM also amplified at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.11066794e948284573fe9c50f718cc8c.jpg

Interest here a good few days earlier than anything on the 0z suite, I would suggest.

Edited by Mike Poole
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