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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

The GFS 18z op has not been mentioned this evening!  I think I'll wait until the morning runs to look for a cold one.

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
43 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

The GFS 18z op has not been mentioned this evening!  I think I'll wait until the morning runs to look for a cold one.

I think if you read between the lines a bit, it's looking like a good run, more hints at some sort of MLB (Central Europe/Scandinavia) and looks like the beginning of an SSW right at the end. Let's wait and see! 

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

A poor run with no hope on the horizon on the GFS 0z run. ?‍♂️

I'd still say there's hope. Strat warmings seem a consistent trend 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
29 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

I'd still say there's hope. Strat warmings seem a consistent trend 

GFS always models a ssw in fi but if it doesn't get within 168h I wouldn't take it too seriously 

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Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich
2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

GFS always models a ssw in fi but if it doesn't get within 168h I wouldn't take it too seriously 

But it did in February and look what happened after that!! 

MNR

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

EC sticking with the arctic high this morning(a whopping 1045mb),although the Atlantic across all the model suite looks very very angry..

So, a period of mild, wet and windy weather looks nailed on for the 1st week of Dec, don't think there is any escaping that..

We are going to need the Atlantic to start playing ball thereafter, so i think its fair to say any potential cold is going to be 'down the line'..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

 

8 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Met office seem quite keen on colder conditions as we move through December. Would love to know what they can see. 

 

EC mean at day 10 doesn't make pretty reading, strong positive pressure anomaly over Spain and a pretty horrid profile all round really, quite a strong +NAO signal...

Lets hope Exeter have this right, although in fairness they are not suggesting any cold until mid month,so patience is for sure going to be needed.

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

20170421-A71F-4ADA-9EA8-7EB1D8CED631.thumb.png.2702e34b39ecb4c681d1f839b1b6aa0f.png

Who cares what the GFS is showing it’s big brother is taking over. 

Only 14 days away

Edited by Spah1
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Any last lingering hopes of a super quick return to cold have evaporated over the past 48 hours, it was always an outside chance. We do need to forget deep cold in the next 10 days, there is virtually no chance of that occuring.

So still on the cool side until Tuesday, then the Atlantic makes its presence felt. Winds from the W-SW-S quadrant is a nailed on cert. Wet, very windy at times, stormy in some areas.

But don't despair. In less than a week the uncertainy starts. The NW still highly likely to be under the influence of the Atlantic but signs are of a building ridge from the Azores may make this fruity Atlantic spell a very short lived one indeed for most. Assuming that occurs, we would still have to endure mild conditions, albeit more settled ones. Then - what happens next in the D8-D14 period??

Still very conflicting signals I'd say. IMO probably a UK  standard N / S (maybe NW / SE) split for another week or so but clearly that is just one option on the table.

I think the period around D9-D10 could be influential as there are increasing signs of the jet looking to dig south. Tie that in with a growing Arctic high and I think we will be back in the game as we approach Mid December. In fact the GFS para wants to give us some very early Christmas presents (with the help of both the aforementioned AH and jet profile), offering us some festive sliders by only D12 or so.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

EC sticking with the arctic high this morning(a whopping 1045mb),although the Atlantic across all the model suite looks very very angry..

So, a period of mild, wet and windy weather looks nailed on for the 1st week of Dec, don't think there is any escaping that..

We are going to need the Atlantic to start playing ball thereafter, so i think its fair to say any potential cold is going to be 'down the line'..

The ext EPS paints a slightly better story - by day 14/15 higher heights to our north/north-west and lower heights over Eastern Europe.  Not an overtly cold pattern but trending in the right direction.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 hour ago, Spah1 said:

20170421-A71F-4ADA-9EA8-7EB1D8CED631.thumb.png.2702e34b39ecb4c681d1f839b1b6aa0f.png

Who cares what the GFS is showing it’s big brother is taking over. 

Only 14 days away

Well said, Spah! A feasable evolution but there is one heck of a lot of LP phasing north/NE of the UK prior to this but the "neverending HP over Europe" which Daz mentions actually prevents us going into a full blown zonal attack, so no not like the last 5 years.

Still in the game here with the FV3 but it doesn`t get to this chart easily.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
20 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Atrocious output. Still stuck in a same rut as in the past five years. Neverending high pressure over Europe.

It's not looking great over the next ten days or so for sure.Most years pre winter we do go threw an unsettled spell due to the PV powering up ete.also background signals are talked about way out in fi which for the most isn't a guarantee of anything imo!!! Guess it's just a case of what will be will be then hopefully something more seasonal will pop up during winter proper.enso, sunspot activity,nao AO  so ete are all specific parts of the nhp but getting wound up ete isn't going to alter the models output I'm afraid.

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
2 hours ago, mother nature rocks said:

But it did in February and look what happened after that!! 

MNR

That warming started getting modeled from somewhere in December and every model run it got postponed. I don't care much for a ssw past mid January either by the time the effects downwell it just makes for a lousy cold spring 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Indeed it did.i think the rarity of SSW events during the search for wintry weather are a long term thing and fraught with frustration.not the be all and end all during the build up to a wintry outbreak.heres hoping tho that this year something early doors transpires

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If my memory is correct winter 17/18 didn't start to get going until Mid Jan with a pretty unsettled December apart from a few rouge snow days... 

 

I actually think our seasons are moving around and winter is the most affected..Winter for me really I don't start looking till Early Jan and anything before that is a bonus.. 

 

April now holds more snow than December does!  

 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Wow another stoniker from the 00z GFS(p) let’s hope it doesn’t vanish in s couple of hrs on the next run!

 

 

228F0FD7-ECC9-4A1E-854C-484962D3B376.png

73F47CE4-E207-466F-A189-F743114FE7EB.png

Great run there.why so much variety on the parallel and other GFS???

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
12 minutes ago, Surrey said:

If my memory is correct winter 17/18 didn't start to get going until Mid Jan with a pretty unsettled December apart from a few rouge snow days... 

 

April now holds more snow than December does!  

 

That brief cold spell around the 8th-12th December was very interesting. I've never seen such a transition from ferocious gales and rain to flat calm and snow before in my life. The low responsible developed a very clear eye. Would love to see it again but the jet was on a NW-SE slant then.

Wouldnt go as far as your second statement though, certainly not in the south. I can count April snow on one hand compared to December snow.

Im trying my to get too disheartened by the current output. I guess if there is a time of year when the Atlantic is most likely to be in full force, it's November and December. Despite conditions about to become very similar to some of the worst winters, hemispherically we could be doing a lot worse. 

I wonder if we get a December like 2007, with a very Atlantic first week then a quick of pressure through the UK followed by proper cold later in the month rather than 2007's return to zonality.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Great run there.why so much variety on the parallel and other GFS???

It's a new upgraded version of the GFS. It is already verifying better so I for one know which one I'll be using, and it goes live as the main operational soon anyway. More info here https://www.weather.gov/news/FV3 and here http://luckgrib.com/blog/2018/07/06/nextgen-gfs.html

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
25 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

That warming started getting modeled from somewhere in December and every model run it got postponed. I don't care much for a ssw past mid January either by the time the effects downwell it just makes for a lousy cold spring 

Pretty sure we got a cracking cold spell from blocking conditions that then helped shape a recurring blocked pattern which led to a glorious late spring and summer.

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