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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Bruegelian said:

Yes as Steve Murr says, zonal wind forecast should cheer up us coldies:

u10serie.png

Oh yes something is brewing... i'm going to keep a quiet watching brief reasonably confident a lot us will be much more excited in a week or so's time..

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
2 hours ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Icon run is decent towards the end. Hugh Russian high building again and slowly backing west. How many times have we said that this year?

People keep saying how good the Russian high can be for us but I find all it seems to do every time is stalls the Atlantic weather somewhere over the UK and keeps us in the milder pattern... 

I'm only an amateur  but could someone explain to me how a Russian high can help to deliver cold to the UK please... 

I understand with a scandy High and a Greenland High and an Atlantic high lol but I can't remember seeing a Russian high bring us cold or snow although I do have a short term memory.... Sorry what did I say..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
8 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

People keep saying how good the Russian high can be for us but I find all it seems to do every time is stalls the Atlantic weather somewhere over the UK and keeps us in the milder pattern... 

I'm only an amateur  but could someone explain to me how a Russian high can help to deliver cold to the UK please... 

I understand with a scandy High and a Greenland High and an Atlantic high lol but I can't remember seeing a Russian high bring us cold or snow although I do have a short term memory.... Sorry what did I say..

 

Its more of a case as to where the Russian high could lead to. If it retrogresses then it will become a Scandi or Greenland High.....most of the time.

It is correct in what you saying that if the Russian high stays put then it keeps us mild.

I personally think that our best chance of blocking is a high pushing up from the Atlantic and joining another......who knows though. We can have all the background signals in the world but it still means nothing unless we start to see some favourable pattern adjustments.  

Edited by Shaftesbury Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
9 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

People keep saying how good the Russian high can be for us but I find all it seems to do every time is stalls the Atlantic weather somewhere over the UK and keeps us in the milder pattern... 

I'm only an amateur  but could someone explain to me how a Russian high can help to deliver cold to the UK please... 

I understand with a scandy High and a Greenland High and an Atlantic high lol but I can't remember seeing a Russian high bring us cold or snow although I do have a short term memory.... Sorry what did I say..

 

Hi, Directly it doesn't is the simple answer.

But if you look at the 14th of November in the archives you can see how with the right conditions it can quite easily link up and become a scandi high.

It also can aid in promoting WAA from the Atlantic into the artic. Further disrupting the PV...


 

Edited by ALL ABOARD
see
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
50 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

T324 gefs mean across the polar field .... I doubt this place will be so quiet in a weeks time ...

27CBC936-617F-4247-A1EE-28EEA2F31663.thumb.jpeg.065e77afb1fb1a50298aef581fcaf85a.jpeg

At last some1 with decipher....

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Here's the para T+384. Plenty of future interest there, I feel:

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
36 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Hi, Directly it doesn't is the simple answer.

But if you look at the 14th of November in the archives you can see how with the right conditions it can quite easily link up and become a scandi high.

It also can aid in promoting WAA from the Atlantic into the artic. Further disrupting the PV...
 

And, on rare occasions, it can keep a wodge of cold air pinned-down until the perfect Scandi High takes over...

GFS Archive Image

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

12z swingometers, the odd cold run in there. Some have high pressure over the UK instead, majority still go for something average or mild.

image.thumb.png.a94efe6427431bc2e4ef7b41a493552d.png

For December 6th, less of an anticyclonic signal but more in the way of colder runs appearing.

image.thumb.png.66e75138c0e298c4dd287be15d9355bb.png

Still lots to be resolved so I'm still sitting on the fence.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Potentially a very strong storm to come next week perhaps with both the ECM and the UKMO going for a fairly deep depression whereas the GFS surprisingly looks alot more modest in comparison. If you can't have cold/snow then some stormy weather will certainly be welcomed by me.

As for cold, I think the best chance will be anything from the NW as the lows head through the UK but the jet orientation suggests even this does not look too likely in anything too noteworthy.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Arctic high beginning to have an influence later on the EC det- will assist forcing the jet south..

No deep cold over the Canadian side of the NH -usually a good sign for UK cold!!

 

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

We have lift off. GEFS starting the tease. I think in the coming days there will be increasing amounts amounts of eye candy on offer.

Background signals. Pacific forcing, strat winds (impending SSW?), GLAAM, solar influences (lack of) are going to make anything remotely zonal the transient state, before defaulting back to blocky. I do believe we are looking at a non standard atmospheric set up which will mean we will be unlucky (luck always involved where we are talking cold and the U.K) not to cop for a bitter cold spell before mid January. An Arctic High could be a big player.

And it still 4 weeks to the day before winter even officially starts!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.e463a4f7a00e59741d748a72114eddb3.jpg

Seems to be following the pattern of the FV3 chart I posted earlier, 60 hrs earlier mind, and the suggestion from the GEFS, this looks to me the signal that we should now be following, coupled with events in the strat for the first big cold period of the winter...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Will be gd to see EC ens tonight if someone could post them. By my conservative reckoning, 11/12 12z GEFS runs showing some kind of amplitude or blocking over n Atlantic/Scandinavia/Greenland by day 14. If trends could talk this one would say: cold potential. (Which, incidentally, as almost exactly what the metoffice say in their long ranger).  

 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.e463a4f7a00e59741d748a72114eddb3.jpg

Seems to be following the pattern of the FV3 chart I posted earlier, 60 hrs earlier mind, this looks to me the signal that we should now be following, coupled with events in the strat for the first big cold period of the winter...

A signal which probably will be gone by the next run and what this morning's run did not show. It would be great too see an Arctic high trying to come into play but the reality is, its not going to affect our weather anytime soon. Of course any background signals down the line may start to show up in the output but it needs to be more consistent for it to be an interest. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

No deep cold over the Canadian side of the NH -usually a good sign for UK cold!!

 

 

Very many parts of Canada are currently experiencing record early cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
42 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Very many parts of Canada are currently experiencing record early cold.

only some parts..most of Canada is warmer than usual and looks set to continue for the next week or so..ideally i think the UK needs a warmer eastern half of Canada

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well looking at the ECM mean and reading between the lines a bit, it looks like we have a new player in town, the Arctic high.

First let me repost the FV3  T300 chart I posted earlier this evening:

image.thumb.jpg.ac880b68cd319b3fc36437ad5ebf5925.jpg

Now the ECM mean at T240, you can see that this evolution is probably present in a significant number of members to create this as the mean:

image.thumb.jpg.690efeac1f79b88916588935b6416519.jpg

Interesting!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
17 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

only some parts..most of Canada is warmer than usual and looks set to continue for the next week or so..ideally i think the UK needs a warmer eastern half of Canada

ECH0-240.GIF?23-0

EC 850s day 10-

compared to now-

ECH0-0.GIF?23-0

Edited by northwestsnow
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