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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

Icon run is decent towards the end. Hugh Russian high building again and slowly backing west. How many times have we said that this year?

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Quite a build of high pressure on the latter stages of icon to the far eastern side of Europe.Not close enough to affect the uk but still everylittle helps

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
3 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

06z Swingometers

image.thumb.png.49f9f24389ef2da6fab228665d7261b5.png

December 1st has started to trend a bit milder recently though average temperatures are more likely for this date with many runs showing a westerly flow

image.thumb.png.6bc3222c74059261dccdb6dd96c95970.png

The December 6th swingometers though have started to get more interesting. A sign things may settle down once again as we start getting into December?

ANOM2m_f168_equir.png

Plenty of cold to our east but not close enough to here. Some reisdual cold air from that west based -NAO may briefly make its way over us giving the odd day of colder westerly winds but expect some mild sectors to make their way across also.

The colder anomalies appear held back to the Eastern half of Poland onwards. I'm sending chilly thoughts to everyone in the UK to back it west a 1000miles or so!

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

gfsnh-0-348.png?12

Strong PV in FI on the GFS. Not great for long term cold

gfs-0-372.png?12

Not exactly true...

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
6 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

gfsnh-0-348.png?12

Strong PV in FI on the GFS. Not great for long term cold

Strong ridge in Atlantic attacking Greenland a few times to not all bad setting up for a big Northerly at the end of the run.

Screenshot_20181123-165722_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181123-165737_Chrome.jpg

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
4 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

gfsnh-0-348.png?12

Strong PV in FI on the GFS. Not great for long term cold

Nope . A few more frames on and there would be a stonking Northerly. Good charts towards the end . The high is heading for Greenland. 

53973EB8-2DED-4646-B467-B8A32E32D00F.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Folks, if you report a post please don't respond to the offending post. You're just making extra work for us and if you repeatedly do it then you're running the risk yourself of having posting rights restricted.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Try again then eh!!! Talk of a rampant PV slightly exaggerated again.signals via am and go are for a more blocking pattern to emerge during Dec ete locality as usually unknown .gFS late on kind of shows this with a push towards Greenland .roll on winter 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Monday's para chart...it could be a quite a cold day. Persistent fog & frost perhaps?

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
20 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

gfsnh-0-348.png?12

Strong PV in FI on the GFS. Not great for long term cold

I disagree with that TBH mate, i'm actually increasingly optimistic this evening..

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I disagree with that TBH mate, i'm actually increasingly optimistic this evening..

Can I borrow some of that? Even I'm struggling..

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
7 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Think that's it for this side of new year. El Nino setting up now which is bad for early winter, but we have a lot of the things needed to make the 2nd half of winter better. 

Is it doomsday Friday on here or what ? . It’s the 23rd of November, there’s over 5 weeks until the new year . How many times have we seen this year the models showing a long zonal spell ,to only really being a week or 2 before high pressure re establisheds it’s self ? It’s beyond me how u can write any cold weather off until the new year ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Model discussion please, clue is in the title.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The only thing the models all seem to agree on, at this stage, is that the period Saturday night-Tuesday morning looks like being cold and relatively quiet...away from the west & southwest, that is...? 

After that, all kinds of things can 'go wrong'...

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
13 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Is it doomsday Friday on here or what ? . It’s the 23rd of November, there’s over 5 weeks until the new year . How many times have we seen this year the models showing a long zonal spell ,to only really being a week or 2 before high pressure re establisheds it’s self ? It’s beyond me how u can write any cold weather off until the new year ? 

agree with this, much too early yet for cold, E'lys especially are more effective late Jan to late Mar, hopefully that's when the cold setups will start showing

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Guys I concur with @bluearmy Lots to look forward to as we enter December - Also the zonal winds dropping throuhh the floor-

Im off to New york - So offline till Sat next week

Have fun !

Have a nice time, can't believe they wont have WI-FI in the states lol.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

I can only guess the doom-mongerers on here missed this morning's runs, because so far tonight's represent an improvement IMO. 

To put it in technical terms, it all looks a little more 'ridgy'.

I think salvation will come from a ridge thrown up from the Azores linking with one over Scandinavia.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I will also join the I quite like the 12z runs club. Looks like something starting to evolve towards the end.

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