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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Maybe a very slight recovery in temps for some over the weekend but it looks like we'll see another burst of chiller air early next week before winds eventually swing around to a milder direction

output_bUjtqP.thumb.gif.ba074e212301624a1cbf46b78326c582.gif

I do like these charts, only a slight moderation of the colder than average conditions at best for my location then straight back into a chilly regime.

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

I think now the best thing I can hope for is temps just to be average. If I don't see temperatures reach double digits then I'll be rather pleased. Would prefer something much colder put GFS ensembles nor the ECMWF show that. 

gefsens850Birmingham0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

What a massive difference at t96 on the GFS no more bowling ball low but more like a stretched banana...  This is far from resolved when we cant get an agreement at 4 days.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
10 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

I think now the best thing I can hope for is temps just to be average. If I don't see temperatures reach double digits then I'll be rather pleased. Would prefer something much colder put GFS ensembles nor the ECMWF show that. 

gefsens850Birmingham0.png

Best we can hope for?

Just as well the ensembles show that

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
1 hour ago, John Badrick said:

it's still November next Tuesday. we are very much still autumn watch!!

Technically December is starting Saturday

Maybe i'm just too impatient.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

After the GEFS ensembles yesterday suggested low confidence of outcomes for next week on the 06z run, today's 06z run shows much better confidence for pressure to fall and temperatures to rise through next week, as the comparisons between yesterday's 06z and today's 06z for pressure and T850s show below:

GEFS06z_comparison_MSLP.thumb.jpg.49af815f7dd728df76ca0483ee87d4f3.jpg

T850_comparison.thumb.jpg.bc2d1ef94ef3fb2c22a7fbfb4da62601.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Best we can hope for?

Just as well the ensembles show that

Indeed so Frosty. Doubt this west based -NAO will give us any favours.

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

What a massive difference at t96 on the GFS no more bowling ball low but more like a stretched banana...  This is far from resolved when we cant get an agreement at 4 days.

Quite a change.

gfsnh-0-108.thumb.png.2e3f1decb98cb77a94761699f21ad06e.pnggfsnh-0-102.thumb.png.4993e5dae8867fc63f4ead4f9c3a058f.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

So far it’s GEM/GFS flattening the low on the 12z keeping cold hopes alive, while UKMO and Icon not so good.

All eyes on ECM later...

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Just now, Johnp said:

So far it’s GEM/GFS flattening the low on the 12z keeping cold hopes alive, while UKMO and Icon not so good.

All eyes on ECM later...

Personally I think we are clutching at straws, as Nick commented earlier the agreement for a pressure fall and temperature rise is now much better supported and unfortunate outcome but is the reality.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Engagement!!!.

AT-lp..steps southwards...and azhp buckles and starts-stall...

So much uncertainty-day 5 onwards..

Also as we run..some decent tweaks on pacific side!!!

 

gfs-0-126.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Amazing what a little more forcing and less energy in the jet can do, the differences at day 4 /5 are so stark we can’t draw any conclusions at the moment, aside from it’s a very messy situation! 

AF9E68F7-C37A-4863-B321-3B9402A13FF8.png

8130C979-2745-410F-9888-980252FF1D4A.png

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Can see why the METO were talking about huge uncertainty for next week yesterday now,nothing is given when models struggle so much in these situations.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Bit people still worrying about day 10...

Model Bias in all its glory. They don't deal well with wedges of high pressure near Iceland. There's a lack of observation data in this region. We can't right this slider off yet 

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Well that's cleared things up nicely!

A South Easterly

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.056bd7e6a3557de1e3964e1518be0512.png

A South Westerly

UN120-21.thumb.GIF.c5c57296fa59037c942c06387a039bbb.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Indeed its why I buy Aunt Bessies! .

Correct its clear that the path forward is unclear.  The Atlantic is going to interact....but how and how long for is the point going forward.

I still feel if that LP does get through I believe we could see it get stuck near Dennark and a NNW/N  flow digging in and a return to nicely below average =cold will follow.

BFTP

Hahaha! 

I feel we may see more and more low pressure disrupt as we hit +96 hours as the models upgrade the high pressure nearer time until we see one of these dive South East and the Scandinavian high pressure build over the top giving North Easterlies 

Edited by inghams85
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Posted
  • Location: Freshwater Isle of Wight
  • Location: Freshwater Isle of Wight
4 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Hahaha! 

I feel we may see more and more low pressure disrupt as we hit +96 hours as the models upgrade the high pressure nearer time until we see one of these dive South East and the Scandinavian high pressure build over the top giving North Easterlies 

This is certainly what GFS is suggesting. The high to the east builds as very cold air is brought ever further west into Europe while at the same time the low struggles to make progress against the developing block.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham

I think a lot of this low will still undercut into the Southern arm of the jet.

It's so finely poised. A forecasters nightmare but if ever models get things wrong at short notice it's with this set up.

ECM around +96 will be interesting

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