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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

and how far do you think it’s going to get past the meridian NWN ??? I’m not convinced how much we in the se uk will actually notice the Atlantic influence 

Only gfs seems to take the trough through convincingly ........

ecm op is not so far from the 12z control .......that blocking isn’t going to give up easily as the azores keeps pumping up replacement upper ridges to help out ........the atmosphere remains pre disposed to blocking rather than zonal imo ......

EC op is actually a lovely suprise Blue...

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM is nothing to get too beaten up about. By 240 the main lump of the vortex if on the Asian side of the northern hem, and as long as it isn’t parked over our side the door will always be ajar. One step back and then two forward hopefully.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes im with you steve.. the background signals look reasonable to me too...

Lets hope any unsettled phase is short lived..

It's been the same since SSW in Spring, the Atlantic hasn't fully got into motion. It would be rotten luck if it started to now.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

I think we can safely say the Atlantic is coming looking at GFS/UKMO 00z runs...

For those like myself wanting seasonal weather dont look at the updated BBC monthly outlook..generally mild and wet and by mid Dec they have , and i quote them directly, 'unusually high confidence of mild south westerlies from the sub tropics' !!!

I cant think of anything worse in the run up to christmas so im hoping thats very wrong..

Yeah massive disappointment this morning.I guess i was too confident that the blocking would put up a better fight yesterday.Amazing how one low pressure system can blast it away so fast.

Could be grim for weeks now if your looking for cold weather to return.Ive seen it countless times  before when Zonal takes control in the winter months,it can last for weeks and weeks and almost the entire winter can be over when it relaxes its grip.

 

But METO not changed their outlook,so maybe their hope yet!

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Yeah massive disappointment this morning.I guess i was too confident that the blocking would put up a better fight yesterday.Amazing how one low pressure system can blast it away so fast.

Could be grim for weeks now if your looking for cold weather to return.Ive seen it countless times  before when Zonal takes control in the winter months,it can last for weeks and weeks and almost the entire winter can be over when it relaxes its grip.

 

Well i made my comments after viewing GFS/UKMO and reading that grim BBC update but EC has offered a bit of hope for coldies, as has Blues musings.

So, back to clear as mud again lol.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

How that low in the atlantic does not undercut at 72 hours on the ecm is beyond me!!ah well look forward to aboout a week of cold seasonal weather then maybe back to square one for a bit with southerlies and southwesterlies!

Screenshot_20181122-075949.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning-

Any atlantic motion looks short lived to me- on top of that the eastward progression looks limited as well-

ECM day 10 is the next route to cold with a vert deep upper air cold pool moving west!

Yes that would tie in with the MO outlook too. Think the BBC has been on the sauce with their bullish mild theme for December. Like you say the day 10 ECM chart is the next point of interest. Hopefully this will gather some momentum in the next few days

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

EPS Day 10 highlighting stronger blocking deflecting the lows from the Atlantic 

A2577B88-1EA3-4029-9E15-E88B4306F705.thumb.jpeg.f9195f0dca0b1cb45209ed5ba1d94d0d.jpeg

Cold? No. Zonal? No.  

More of a “holding pattern”, look at the blocking towards the Arctic. 

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

Icon at 120 is a lot better, heights ever increasing with a wrap around of cold air starting to filter towards us. There's a small runner low attached to main one and if this can head south it would be game on...

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

and how far do you think it’s going to get past the meridian NWN ??? I’m not convinced how much we in the se uk will actually notice the Atlantic influence 

Only gfs seems to take the trough through convincingly ........

ecm op is not so far from the 12z control .......that blocking isn’t going to give up easily as the azores keeps pumping up replacement upper ridges to help out ........the atmosphere remains pre disposed to blocking rather than zonal imo ......

Unless I'm mistaken the GFS get's it this far

 

gfs-0-192.png  gens-21-1-192.png

ecm

EDM1-192.GIF?22-12


 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Icon at 120 is a lot better, heights ever increasing with a wrap around of cold air starting to filter towards us. There's a small runner low attached to main one and if this can head south it would be game on...

Yes just saw that , it looks like a couple of the GEFS which orientated the high more favourably to draw some colder air sw .

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
7 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Icon at 120 is a lot better, heights ever increasing with a wrap around of cold air starting to filter towards us. There's a small runner low attached to main one and if this can head south it would be game on...

you can thank the Jet for that

iconeu-5-120.png?22-06

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning-

Any atlantic motion looks short lived to me- on top of that the eastward progression looks limited as well-

ECM day 10 is the next route to cold with a vert deep upper air cold pool moving west!

Moring John ;)

It would be nice to see the LP's in the Atlantic head a bit further south in this scenario. As long as the high pressure just sits to our east the low pressures wont do anything fast or favourable for us. In this set up the cold pool wouldn't get anywhere past Germany.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

MMmm  Icon has thrown a spanner in the works.  Also the Ext UKMO showing a much more southerly track of the Atlantic low.  My interests have been sparked  for a few runs at least. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Where have all the zonal people vanished to?

Subtle upgrade from the ICON - Doesn’t matter how deep the low pressure system is, if the jet stream doesn’t have enough power to push it through the what looks like an increasingly stronger block that the models have underestimated then it wont go anywhere but sit out to the West. 

Some Atlantic influence looks likely but how much?

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Posted
  • Location: wisbech
  • Location: wisbech

Omg!! I do believe the hunt for cold is over, in my freezer there was ice everywhere,on a serious note, this year has been controlled by high pressure one way or another, after the strat warming earlier in the year, the weather hasn't been the same, no constant attacks from low pressure from the Atlantic, so the odds are, if we get the blocking high in the right position I feel this winter is going to be very cold and I looks like mainly coming from the east. With the PV allover the place, not allowing a strong jet, which produces the low pressure conveyer and any future strat warming are just going to play further unpredictable havock with our weather, warmer sst's after the summer will help with the North sea snow Machine when a proper easterly sets up

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight

One of the main issues we are dealing with here is that we are relying on areas of energy to align accurately  after each run for us to find any kind of consistency or trend. If the LP's in the Atlantic slow or speed up or if the pieces or vortex are positioned differently in the Arctic then the models can vary drastically especially after day 5. That's why so many models have been inconsistent with each other. Even a shift of 150 -200 miles north or south makes a big difference to the output.

For me personally, Im looking for consistency up to the 5 day point between the models at this point before I look for trends past the day 5 point, which just aren't there yet.

It looks to me that due to the energy to the north of Scandinavia and the LP coming from the west the HP to the east will get squashed out as there is nowhere for it to build. This will be the best case for us and the quicker this happens the better. The reason for this is that it clears the Atlantic and that persistant HP just sat there blocking and feeding cold to central and south eastern Europe. Hopefully then SHOULD encourage heights to build over Greenland via the arctic as I feel this will be our place for blocking to begin rather than retrogression from scandi.

Edited by Shaftesbury Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Where have all the zonal people vanished to?

Subtle upgrade from the ICON - Doesn’t matter how deep the low pressure system is, if the jet stream doesn’t have enough power to push it through the what looks like an increasingly stronger block that the models have underestimated then it wont go anywhere but sit out to the West. 

Some Atlantic influence looks likely but how much?

We haven't vanished at all, there really isn't anything to say no as the outcome is becoming ever clearer. I don't think people can say there is a new 'trend' just by looking at one model run from one particular model. The ICON 12Z could simply revert back to the ICON 0Z. There is currently no consistent trend.

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