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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
37 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening -

Anyone got tonight ECM control as its spectacular -!!!

How does one get that Steve, 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening All .... Northern blocking  brings some stormy weather  ..

ecmt850.144-2.png

h850t850eu-8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
29 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

As long as people realise that he's thinking December will come too soon for cold chances to manifest. He clearly hints that early-mid January may be the best time for potential...and I completely agree with him. I've repeatedly said I think January will be THE winter month this winter season and I've seen nothing to change my view yet. 

I'm personally hoping we can get lucky in December and get some mid latitude blocking in our vicinity to keep us mostly dry. Cold, dark and damp in December doesn't fill me with joy!

Aaron of note he’s highlighted Xmas week of potential big interest.  I do too....but I also think Dec will bring a few more surprises....indeed next week isn’t properly resolved yet

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

How does one get that Steve, 

 

BFTP

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe-africa/m0_geopotential-height-500hpa/20181122-0000z.html

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I wonder if this is the point at which the models start to have problems, up to here there is a clear northern and southern arm of the jet, here on the GFS at T60 there is the possibility of a feedback loop to fuel the southern arm, question is, is this realistic? Hasn't fully happened yet on this run...

image.thumb.jpg.edbbc85580ce5211de023165dc9fe477.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I wonder if this is the point at which the models start to have problems, up to here there is a clear northern and southern arm of the jet, here on the GFS at T60 there is the possibility of a feedback loop to fuel the southern arm, question is, is this realistic? Hasn't fully happened yet on this run...

image.thumb.jpg.edbbc85580ce5211de023165dc9fe477.jpg

The models aren’t wrong at day 3 mike ..... up to T96/120 should be pretty reliable, even in a tricky situation. I recall a gfs/ecm stand off last winter coming down to day 4. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

How does one get that Steve, 

 

BFTP

Found it here, a short, sharp cold snap from a large high over Scandi, looks pretty brief though, SLP left, 850s right

image.thumb.png.19514571cde5d964bee366c15f1397c3.pngimage.thumb.png.0893bfdaeccb62ab2edb0d91eb176f77.png  Thursday (29th Nov)

image.thumb.png.15061f25aab1fc25722609f4d860c75d.pngimage.thumb.png.a5771b9c13ad0ded631b12c73430be7c.png  Saturday (1st Dec)

image.thumb.png.ebe577a0fc327664970dfed55c53de87.pngimage.thumb.png.07e60c081a3f975e96e75d4c9ffde4a8.png  Tuesday (4th Dec)

image.thumb.png.98a208dd5fd5708d39d3decd0cfb7af5.pngimage.thumb.png.071d6b238758145a7047044912ca2153.png  Thurs 6th Dec

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Is that wee low a tad further south than earlier? Or is it wishful thinking?

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

Interesting development on gfs picking up height rise near uk and putting the brakes on that football low.

Also ESB is more blocked and the runner low not forming and joining the huge Atlantic football low.

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Here's the spread on the ECM mean at T144 (key time) - it shows large uncertainty with the handling of this low, so I'd be reluctant to take any solutions off the table yet.

image.thumb.jpg.515e3f2816208ad703dcc42864f2d195.jpg

i also think there's a difference between full on zonal, the Atlantic barrelling through (or similar terminology), and a low pressure coming at us from the Atlantic in an otherwise largely blocked regime.  These seem to get blurred on here sometimes, in my opinion, I think the third one is where we are at with this problematic low.

 

I think that's a result of the two winters we had back to back when the Atlantic just sent low after low in our direction.  Must have been 3-4 years back now.  Also the cold period in Dec 2010 also has skewed peoples expectations of cold in late Nov/Dec.  It's just behavioral bias.  Also there's a lot of cognitive dissonance where models that support a poster opinions are highly rated but those that don't are sent to the bin.  I may have mentioned, in past years, that I'm a finance lecture and use the contrary post we get on this forum as we approach winter to illustrate behavioral bias. 

If you are new to the field of behavioral science then the BBC had a good introductory Horizon episode 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Such difference between the 18z and the 12z regarding that low. Still very uncertain and makes any definitive calls regarding the outlook beyond that timeframe look either very brave or very foolish.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
12 minutes ago, booferking said:

Interesting development on gfs picking up height rise near uk and putting the brakes on that football low.

Also ESB is more blocked and the runner low not forming and joining the huge Atlantic football low.

What is ESB,never heard of it before?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
41 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The models aren’t wrong at day 3 mike ..... up to T96/120 should be pretty reliable, even in a tricky situation. I recall a gfs/ecm stand off last winter coming down to day 4. 

No they aren't, not by much, but I was flicking though the charts looking for a point where a small difference may make a bigger difference down the line, is all, probably erroneously...  GFS 18 z at T156 with the full bowling ball option, mind...

image.thumb.jpg.0110dc1cdf598019cacbbc7b1f205049.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Things appear to be slowly grinding to a halt...More uncertainty?

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
6 minutes ago, booferking said:

Eastern sea board.

Yes a disconnect there on this run,hopefully heights will build in that quadrant poised for Scandi later.

we seem to have lost that west baised -NAO on this run,good going forward.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

Any chance that the GFS is overplaying that influence from the low. It seems to be thinking around for awfullong time. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The latter part of the gfs(high res 192)has a ridge forming in the atlantic,can we gain enough amplitude to the rigde,that Newfoundland low would be sufficiant enough west of the uk to pump WAA into the NH at that stage,it would be interesting to see if this follows suit tomorrow.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Opportunities maybe if this sodding low ever completely passes the UK! GFS T192:

image.thumb.jpg.a6e114151726a0c04058757bb4962509.jpg

A weak high to the east a deep low to the west.

The low will win out 

Now then if the high pressure was around 1055mb or 1060mb 

Then that would be a different story

All long lasting blocking happens around a 1055mb or higher.

A 1028mb high to the east is to weak imo

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, evans1892 said:

Think I'm actually going to be sick looking at where that air is being drawn from.

Fair to say, not one of the greatest GFS FIs

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