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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

I feel the need to say how many times in the past have we seen blocking be a lot more stubborn than it was looking? I think people saying that the Atlantic will just blow the block away will probably end up with egg on the face tbh. Yes it may simply blow it away and we get mild wet muck but it’s more likely imo to be pretty stubborn and put up a good fight so yeah we may get a little bit of Atlantic muck before the block fights it back. Then again the muck may not even make it. It’s far to far away to be worrying about it just now and is likely to chop and change 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
16 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

That is some major cold anomaly across Russia and Siberia (a massive Siberian HP must be in the offing).  With low solar activity now entering its deeper phase and no overnight immediacy of a drop off as the lag effect and Grand Minima expected 2030....that is one of the best I’ve seen in ages.  South America stands out too....that’s some anomaly....and so in the arctic.  Interesting snapshot, thanks for the continued posts of these.

 

BFTP

Bear in mind its just a snapshot though but an anomaly of 0.51C above the 1981-2010 would put it on track to be the 2nd warmest November on record globally. The GFS tends to be rather poor at predicting anomalies in some areas of the tropics. The reanalysis gives a better idea of the global picture which so far this month is...

ANOM2m_pastMTH_equir.png

At least we have more average temperatures in western Europe now. A siberian high would be nice but to get the cold building over our latitude all we need is to switch off the warmth from the North Atlantic and we are on our way. We can still get notable cold even with warm global temperatures provided the atmospheric circulation pattern is extreme enough as March showed. Lets hope we see things pick up around christmas time . (It may well do before then but I'm going for a backloaded winter).

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
10 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I feel the need to say how many times in the past have we seen blocking be a lot more stubborn than it was looking? I think people saying that the Atlantic will just blow the block away will probably end up with egg on the face tbh. Yes it may simply blow it away and we get mild wet muck but it’s more likely imo to be pretty stubborn and put up a good fight so yeah we may get a little bit of Atlantic muck before the block fights it back. Then again the muck may not even make it. It’s far to far away to be worrying about it just now and is likely to chop and change 

Nothing is set in stone for sure..

But i think one has to balanced... im as bigger cold ramper as the next man but as it stands, unless there is a dramatic twist, the block is going to get blown away...look at ukmo ,gfs,ec.. its staring us in the face..

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
38 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Do feel there’s enough evidence to suggest the Atlantic coming back - the 12Z ECMWF, for me, looks unappealing with Low Pressure racing past the UK like a Great Western Railway train in the dreamland timeframe. But there may still be enough room for the Atlantic to become less of a feature, and/or Low Pressure not breaking through further East at all.

I almost wanted to throw my large toy la-la out of that pram, but think I’ll hold on to it for now. Maybe might be in for a surprise after a little break from the maddening charts.

The next few days the models seem to agree to a continued theme of blocking to our North and Low Pressure to the South, with some further spells of showers or longer spells of rain in the cool Easterly to South-Easterly flow. Mostly for Southern UK areas, although even these areas could see some brighter spells at times. A chance of some frost and mist at night, particularly over Northern areas where the Northern UK High would be more influential.

 

 

It is such an odd pattern right now, so much so I heard a BBC Forecaster, possibly Nick Miller? state how unusual it was, synoptically speaking. So with that in mind, I wouldn't take anything beyond the weekend as set in stone, until say, Friday/Saturday when we might know where the rest of next week is heading. Is Shannon Entrophy at play in the modelling I wonder? Either way, wet snow today in parts of the Isle of Wight even, they can go whole winters without seeing some as well. 

 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 hour ago, Glacier Point said:

Worth noting that in the day 4 - 10 timeline the sub-tropical jet will get very energised over the Southern US. That ties in nicely with an El Nino tropical signal, enhanced through passage of a tropical wave. Without any strong blocking feature to the north / far NE, and no scrambling of the upper level polar westerlies across the North Atlantic, we will be exposed to a poleward returning 200 hPa flow.

That's not expected to last much beyond day 10, so chances are that an eddy will form in our locale setting up a ridge over NW Europe and trough becomes more slow moving to our west. Next phase of ridge development over NW Europe very much on the cards during the 10-21 day period. Stress that doesn't necessarily mean instant cold, and we could still get trapped the wrong side of a ridge for a time.

Did you generate the extended eps Stewart ?   

The control certainly read your post with a big Scandi high developing around day 10....and the general set up you describe of the trough retrograding somewhat against building nw European ridge (settled where?) seems to be they way they are headed ....

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nothing is set in stone for sure..

But i think one has to balanced... im as bigger cold ramper as the next man but as it stands, unless there is a dramatic twist, the block is going to get blown away...look at ukmo ,gfs,ec.. its staring us in the face..

 

I agree about being balanced but I just can’t help but think things could be looking sooo different by sat, I really struggle to see the block just blowing away. It was only a week ago the models was pretty much all looking awesome and now it’s quite the opposite, it only takes small changes for big improvements in our part of the world

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
28 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Bear in mind its just a snapshot though but an anomaly of 0.51C above the 1981-2010 would put it on track to be the 2nd warmest November on record globally. The GFS tends to be rather poor at predicting anomalies in some areas of the tropics. The reanalysis gives a better idea of the global picture which so far this month is...

ANOM2m_pastMTH_equir.png

At least we have more average temperatures in western Europe now. A siberian high would be nice but to get the cold building over our latitude all we need is to switch off the warmth from the North Atlantic and we are on our way. We can still get notable cold even with warm global temperatures provided the atmospheric circulation pattern is extreme enough as March showed. Lets hope we see things pick up around christmas time . (It may well do before then but I'm going for a backloaded winter).

Yep I read your thoughts re backloaded winter, good luck with that forecast and something with all our others out there to assess down the line.  I’m interested to see the anomaly over coming months, please keep posting them

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm guessing (as I can't view it) that this arvo's GFS FV3 hasn't come to our rescue, this time?

I can help you with that

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs-para

And a simple comparison tool to compare GFS and the FV3 Para here:

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs-vs-para

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yep I read your thoughts re backloaded winter, good luck with that forecast and something with all our others out there to assess down the line.  I’m interested to see the anomaly over coming months, please keep posting them

 

BFTP

Push those anomalies a few hundred miles further east globally in the NH and that will be the winter set up IMO

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I find that low just east of Denmark an interesting solution on the spreads Mike - it has dropped down from the north and tries to push its influence west - I guess we will call that @carinthian ‘s low .....

In that case expect more changes on the 18z gfs mate!!i just feel its one of those moments where things could change in favour of.cold very quickly!!not saying its defo gona happen but defo a possibility!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
18 minutes ago, Paul said:

I can help you with that

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs-para

And a simple comparison tool to compare GFS and the FV3 Para here:

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs-vs-para

Cheers Paul...And here's how it ends:

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Certainly some positive sounding posts from Stewart recently, that always sparks optimism into my mind.I for one will not mind a brief Atlantic visit if what follows on is cold

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening -

Anyone got tonight ECM control as its spectacular -!!!

Steve i feel we are still in the game here with more changes to come maybe around the 144 hour mark!!

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Steve i feel we are still in the game here with more changes to come maybe around the 144 hour mark!!

I also feel we are very much still in the game. Very small changes can lead to big rewards in this small island

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ICON 18z at T96, and jetstream:

image.thumb.jpg.6619dc478b628ec6ec51cac025f8ad07.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.84fe34d244d98f88c625c500ebd7cea9.jpg

Wonder if we had a bit more in the northern arm, this low on the southern arm might be less problematic, one to watch maybe, crucial time T120 to come...

Edit, T120, fires up on the jet...

image.thumb.jpg.2b51dbf2dd49de824519e0992fb7da17.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.8f0b9b5825055a49810b83a0f7a08ec5.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Certainly some positive sounding posts from Stewart recently, that always sparks optimism into my mind.I for one will not mind a brief Atlantic visit if what follows on is cold

 

As long as people realise that he's thinking December will come too soon for cold chances to manifest. He clearly hints that early-mid January may be the best time for potential...and I completely agree with him. I've repeatedly said I think January will be THE winter month this winter season and I've seen nothing to change my view yet. 

I'm personally hoping we can get lucky in December and get some mid latitude blocking in our vicinity to keep us mostly dry. Cold, dark and damp in December doesn't fill me with joy!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening -

Anyone got tonight ECM control as its spectacular -!!!

Trough just about gets across uk (this is the secondary feature that phases on the op but stays separate on the control and runs he across uk before filling in situ) and then Azores ridges behind towards scandi and draws the block back west , bringing  the deep cold with it .... almost reaches the uk .(we bottom out around -8c) .... the ridge begins to sink day 14/15 ... allowing an Atlantic influence back into nw uk 

fits in with my take on the clusters from this morning and it’s certainly on the table 

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hey guys i for one have found the model output so exciting recently. the gfs was throwing out fantastic charts as was ecm at one point and even steve murr became excited. but sadly theyve weaved n waned to lesser potential. i do think we can still see tweaks here n there to improve it further but it seems that the ecm is showing the way. it picked out the change a week ago and has stuck with it pretty much since. the ukmo was incredible until today but now that has given in too. however lets wait n see. i dont agree on winter hasnt started yet because if you get the right synoptics at the right time then it doesnt matter which time of the year we are at (nov) but even when winter starts, if we dont get the synoptics in place then cold n snow doesnt arrive. its quite easy to say winter hasnt started yet but then have only to have mild charts prevailing throughout. fingers crossed for better things to come from the models! keep the faith.

Edited by Blessed Weather
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

As long as people realise that he's thinking December will come too soon for cold chances to manifest. He clearly hints that early-mid January may be the best time for potential...and I completely agree with him. I've repeatedly said I think January will be THE winter month this winter season and I've seen nothing to change my view yet. 

I'm personally hoping we can get lucky in December and get some mid latitude blocking in our vicinity to keep us mostly dry. Cold, dark and damp in December doesn't fill me with joy!

Agree with the first paragraph but i would rather have something that could give us some snow - runners around the base of a trough that are slack and slow moving enough for evaporative cooling or some Arctic maritime rather than high pressure in December.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Agree with the first paragraph but i would rather have something that could give us some snow - runners around the base of a trough that are slack and slow moving enough for evaporative cooling or some Arctic maritime rather than high pressure in December.

I'd take some polar maritime shots of cold on a NW'ly...happily.

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