The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[northwestsnow]

Yes, its obviously only November so i'm not concerned about Winter at this time, but we are looking at a spell of zonal weather , for how long, who knows..

[Scandinavian High.]

What’s betting the ecm goes cold and rest will follow or am clutching at the straws big time .

[SLEETY]

not even in the reliable time frame yet people insisting atlantic winning through,and METO talking about huge uncertainty next week ,and what happens when the atlantic air hit the cold air?

[andymusic]

11 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

I think some people belive we are in late Febuary. My god Winter hasnt even started but apparently its over all ready lol. Shame to see some people biting at other knowledgeable posters also. No one can predict the weather its simple as that we can only go on the information we have and make an educated guess. And i think Steve Murr and Tamara etc deserve more respect to be honest. We already lost many good posters we dont want to lose anymore. Chill people its November a long way to go yet.

no I don't think that at all - winter has yet to really kick off - this last 24 hours could have been an aperitif before the aperitif lol but some have had a few snowflakes, some none at all - but as we read the models right now - it looks as if the 1st 1/12 plus of winter could well be a little on the mild side as we can really only see with great confidence 7 - 10 days out even though the models go out to 14 or so days the 11/12s of winter are still in the balance + March - all the background signals do suggest a cold one - but as complex as the weather can be no one - even the newspapers lol can predict the "3 months of blizzards and freeze" headlines - no matter what they tell you - so right now "winter isn't over" it's still got at least 11/12s or more which we really don't know about and even the 1st 1/12 isn't quite 100% confirmed yet.

Edited November 21, 2018 by andymusic

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

and what happens when the atlantic air hit the cold air?

Cold rain?

[mb018538]

It’s not a normal year folks. Since that ssw we’ve had all sorts from dry weather....to the summer heat....to a mild and unzonal autumn. The one thing we haven’t seen is typical zonal weather at all, and that’s not likely to change. A low pressure system in isolation shouldn’t be counted as zonality, we are just in the wrong place at the moment. Things will improve through December, you wait and see!

Edited November 21, 2018 by mb018538

[weirpig]

Awaiting the ecm not just to see  if the Atlantic wins out but just how strong the block to the east is    still quite a difference in the models at present  the gfs offers no resistance as the low just barrels through  the icon and ukmo show the high being more resilient  thus delaying and slowing the Atlantic incursion  I still believe models are underplaying this block  we shall see 

[Nick F]

32 minutes ago, booferking said:

I would love to hear more about this el nino signal kicking off the jet stream and firing up the Atlantic from @Nick F is this easy turned off again if el nino signal stays in place i thought these patterns are hard to shift once in place?

Well, looks like we could be going into a fully-fledged El Nino soon to see us through the winter season, though central tropical Pacific based one (Modoki). Current westerly burst in sub-tropical Pacific indicative of El Nino and this strong jet burst will bring much needed rain to California this week and southerly storm track across US and out into the Atlantic, possibly spawning a few U.S. east coast winter storms. El Nino is not a bad thing for us, as although the jet is ramped up over the Atlantic, helped by deep cold incursion from interior Canada across NE U.S.A, so long as there is also drivers for high latitude blocking (coherent MJO through P7-8-1 and some wave no 1 and 2 attacks on PV) then the jet will hopefully be southerly tracking into Europe. 

Edited November 21, 2018 by Nick F

[Glacier Point]

Nino is here, and has been for some time since October. We are playing real time Nino climatology here, which suggests December may be a touch too soon on cold backing sufficiently far west. That said, +ve height anomalies to our east and NE and low to the west are exactly what we should expect.

GEFS mean 12z starting to rebuild a ridge across NW Europe as the MJO quickly cycles through the Indian Ocean.

CFS stratospheric modelling continues to look 'interesting' for last week of December, which would have some merit given recent musings.

[Timmytour]

Popping in, I see a lot of previous optimism for the near future has melted away.  

So I'l leave for the time being and pop back later, but this time I won't bother leaving it a week.  I've an inclination that in 48 hours  things will be looking rosy again....very rosy!

 

[snowblind]

28 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

not even in the reliable time frame yet people insisting atlantic winning through,and METO talking about huge uncertainty next week ,and what happens when the atlantic air hit the cold air?

Transient hill snow, according to the METO.

[northwestsnow]

EC ever so slightly more amplified in the Atlantic at 72 than the other big 2..

[BlazeStorm]

When it comes to blocking potential, it seems to be the ECM and UKMO that pick up on the signals first, then the GFS jumps on board.

This time it appears to be somewhat the opposite, and so I lack confidence that we will see any real cold before the second week of December. Still hopeful though!

[ALL ABOARD]

Bang goes the Atlantic into overdrive, wet and windy.... Ooo wait hello a new block 

[Derecho]

12z swingometers show a small switch back to mild, when the mild air arrives is still up in the air however.... but I'd say its very likely we will see some mild temperatures in the  next 10-14 days (fleeting or sustained? difficult to say). The build up of cold air over Greenland doesn't help and a west based -NAO looks to be developing. Strong SW'lies for a time look to be a possibility.

This is reflected by the swingometer from December 6th which looks to be the most predominantly mild yet.

We may have to be patient.... the switch to milder can be seen for the global temperature anomaly chart in 7 days time, UK now back to slightly above average. Plenty of cold to our east, a blocked weather pattern when looking at the NH as a whole but the cold not falling to where we want it - here... not yet anyway.

Global temperature anomaly +0.51C above average despite the low solar activity.

Edited November 21, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[I remember Atlantic 252]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC ever so slightly more amplified in the Atlantic at 72 than the other big 2..

Yes, better at 144, GFS goes for washout Tuesday, EC like UKMO, decent enough day

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Hello folks!

Been lurking and checking the trends and enjoying the banter here. Thanks to everyone for the analysis - looking a bit like the start of summer but where you just want the cold to get on with it and not waste precious time ‘firing up’ (instead of the hot) - but these things do take time...

Hope the recent excitement hasonly waned temporarily and we’re back to some exciting charts soon... missed out last night LOL but only by a frosty whisker (any snow is great - but it’s best when it’s significant )

[Day 10]

Not looking past 120 as there really is no point, however it looks as though the Atlantic may win through in about a weeks time but as others have said for how long?

[Stuie]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Not looking past 120 as there really is no point, however it looks as though the Atlantic may win through in about a weeks time but as others have said for how long?

Not sure where you see the signs of the Atlantic winning next week from those charts. The Icelandic/Scandi block looks stubborn and although the jet is not exactly southern I would expect any LP systems to be deflected SE somewhat. I am still bouyant about this HP/blocking scenario.

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Not sure where you see the signs of the Atlantic winning next week from those charts. The Icelandic/Scandi block looks stubborn and although the jet is not exactly southern I would expect any LP systems to be deflected SE somewhat. I am still bouyant about this HP/blocking scenario.

EC blows the block away by day 8 its over the Ukraine..

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC blows the block away by day 8 its over the Ukraine..

Yep, although it just seems a bit odd to me how quick it pushes the block to one side, basically as if it wasn’t there...

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC blows the block away by day 8 its over the Ukraine..

Day 8.... once upon a time that was FI...

[bluearmy]

the ec op phases the next feature into the atlantic low at day 6 and deepens it quickly ………. that next feature has some warmth in it, hence the oomph it gives the main feature …… if its has that wrong then the main trough wont deepen so much and wont flatten the renewed blocking in the same way …. this op looks to be a cross between the control and op of the 00z run so amidst the uncertainty, it has some credence

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Not sure where you see the signs of the Atlantic winning next week from those charts. The Icelandic/Scandi block looks stubborn and although the jet is not exactly southern I would expect any LP systems to be deflected SE somewhat. I am still bouyant about this HP/blocking scenario.

Hence why I said may, however even though I am as much as a coldie as most I am coming round to the fact we may have to endure our friend from the Atlantic before searching out the next cold shot.

ECM

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Stuie W said:

Day 8.... once upon a time that was FI...

Yes of course.. its still outside reliable but i really think we ought to be accepting the block isnt going to hold...

As a coldie i am hoping it does.. but the evidence is becoming overwhelming that it will be blown away..