The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[SLEETY]

so clear to  some posters on here that atlantic wins through,but huge uncertainty from the MET  regarding next week and wether mild or cold wins out.Hmm who to believe !

[sorepaw1]

2 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Quite clear that the Atlantic will win the battle with relatively little difficulty.

I agree ..I'd like to see snowy cold conditions but looking at various models .I don't think it's possible just yet

I'm only speaking how I see it.

I don't mind my face absolutely covered in egg ..

[shaky]

Gfs any better?!!!ukmo hasnt changed from this morning to be fair!!even on the 00z you could tell that low was never gona disrupt!!ecm will hopefully confirm this slider saga this evening!!

[SLEETY]

well it’s not clear actually unless you ignore all the forecasts from the meto etc,

[captaincroc]

10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

A rather large and rounded Low from the UKM

GFs on the other has is as you where but slightly further south in comparison to the 06z Run @96

I've been trying to understand why this random low has ballooned into such a near perfect circular low, with no real jet stream momentum? I think the experts will know more but it is it the combination of the cold air and warm seas? It is a bloomin' shame that the potential has melted away - for now - let's hope it's a passing phase.

[Midlander]

Just now, sorepaw1 said:

I agree ..I'd like to see snowy cold conditions but looking at various models .I don't think it's possible just yet

I'm only speaking how I see it.

I don't mind my face absolutely covered in egg ..

This is exactly how I feel as well, I despise milder conditions but that is where we're heading to at the moment. Even faux cold conditions like frost and fog looks to be at a minimum as well.  If the GFS and ECMWF shows this, then what hope is left for cold lovers?

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

This is exactly how I feel as well, I despise milder conditions but that is where we're heading to at the moment. Even faux cold conditions like frost and fog looks to be at a minimum as well.  If the GFS and ECMWF shows this, then what hope is left for cold lovers?

Winter?

[Mike Poole]

GFS does look to disrupt at T144, but at that point it has reached the UK.  I'm in the massive uncertainty camp still at the moment, and there's plenty of hope left for coldies - winter hasn't even started yet!

[frosty ground]

The so called west based -NAO

We could scrape a 36 hour northerly with some white stuff as the low cross the UK

[Seasonality]

9 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Agree Frosty, tis an unfortunate outcome. Really there is little sign of anything wintry, even the EC 46 days and MO outlook show average conditions at best.

The MO outlook doesn't say that at all. 

[Catacol]

9 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

The atlantic is boss this morning with both gfs and ecm.

A period of zonal it looks odds on at the moment and if it's going to happen it might aswell do it quickly rather than burning up time.

The meto have called this very well I must say both the blocking we now have and the likely return to zonal

What happens after is anyone's guess

An interesting viewpoint. Here is another.

GLAAM remains high - in fact it is very high

and the last AAM cycle really did not dip very far - it is back on the up

and let's not forget the MJO forecast I posted a day or so ago

What is interesting is that the current uptick in AAM once again has happened without input from frictional/mountain torque, as these normally precede such activity.

Meanwhile we are in the middle of modest wave 2 action on the vortex, with a ramping up of subsequent wave 1 in the forecast

With these background forcings I cant see any return to zonal for any period of time. We might get a trough stuck in a position that causes some grief to cold lovers, but sweeping west to south westerlies in the true "zonal" fashion look long odds at the moment.

I'm not sure that NWP will be resolving this data particularly well, even assuming the vortex keeps its shape and coherence. I dont have the skill of GP or Chio on wider implications, and if Tamara is still surfing these pages then she has far greater experience in analysing GSDM patterns than I.....but optimism regarding the broad pattern (if you want snow chances that is) looks pretty well founded to me at the moment. It's still early days.... but confidence in a cold spell around mid December continues to grow....and the current shape of things would suggest that this could be only the beginning of a recurrent pattern.

Edited November 21, 2018 by Catacol

[Geordiesnow]

Yep more signs we could see an Atlantic Influence although the process could be a bit of a slow one with colder air trying to hang on.

It has felt like it was not meant to be for the UK at the moment, the air was never really forecast to get significantly colder but im sure there will be other opportunties in the next 12 to 14 weeks ahead.

Edited November 21, 2018 by Geordiesnow

[frosty ground]

 
That jet Streak heading North East to South West between Iceland and Greenland is what we need to see over Norway, thats a sure fire way of getting the cold to back west



A rather active low with lots of showers thrown into the mix

Edited November 21, 2018 by frosty ground

[northwestsnow]

GFS is going very unsettled mid term this evening- a conveyor belt of Atlantic lows with attendant heights across Europe..

Paradoxically there is no monster Greenland PV on show , maybe as Nick alluded to this morning, el nino responsible for the sudden coming to life of our nemesis? (The Atlantic)?..

[Newberryone]

Would be very interesting now in light of today’s models to read the thoughts of SM and Tight Isobar who’ve to date been rather optimistic and bullish in projecting the possibility of a protracted cold spell. Perhaps I’m guilty of oversimplifying this but surely even their views now must entertain the thought of an Atlantic breakthrough, for however long that may last. I must admit I love when amidst all the doom and gloom they manage to put a positive spin on things regarding the potential for cold weather when that time arises.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

32 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The so called west based -NAO

We could scrape a 36 hour northerly with some white stuff as the low cross the UK

Snapshot, its only west based if the LP doesn’t move east through the UK, and looking at that vold air will surge behind on western flank. That still shows encouraging signs abd mo zonal steam train

 

BFTP

 

 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Snapshot, its only west based if the LP doesn’t move east through the UK, and looking at that vold air will surge behind on western flank. That still shows encouraging signs abd mo zonal steam train

 

BFTP

 

 

Can't see many encouraging signs on GFS Fred... looks zonal all the way out to the end?(After day 6/7).

Edited November 21, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Nick F]

The GFS operationals continue to say 'west-based -NAO anyone?' … no thanks.

Unfortunately it looks increasingly like we will endure a brief spell of flow off the Atlantic next week and to start December, but agree with @Catacol that heading into December a decent cold spell very well possible by mid-month, particularly as we may expect a positive lag effect for blocking and -NAO from the MJO going through 7-8-1 as we go through the coming days. Not to mention the planetary waves taking their toll on the polar vortex - which will help. 

FWIW JMA seasonal looks interesting too for longer term, but even though high-latitude blocking looks more likely than recent winters as head toward a minimum in the solar cycle, still find it difficult to believe any seasonal forecasts will be close to the mark, but we'll see!

 

Edited November 21, 2018 by Nick F

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Can't see many encouraging signs on GFS Fred... looks zonal all the way out to the end?(After day 6/7).

Me neither; it looks like one depression after another, for the foreseeable future? The towel is finely balanced upon the top rope, awaiting the final shove!

 

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Can't see many encouraging signs on GFS Fred... looks zonal all the way out to the end?(After day 6/7).

I would love to hear more about this el nino signal kicking off the jet stream and firing up the Atlantic from @Nick F is this easy turned off again if el nino signal stays in place i thought these patterns are hard to shift once in place?

[The PIT]

Well its been hinted at over several runs but it's beginning to look like a return to mild south westerlies is on the cards in a weeks time. The only saving grace it isn't in the reliable time frame so will go through several changes before firming up on the details.

[biggreyface]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Me neither; it looks like one depression after another, for the foreseeable future? The towel is finely balanced upon the top rope, awaiting the final shove!

 

Would that be thrown in for autumn or winter

[northwestsnow]

Just now, booferking said:

I would love to hear more about this el nino signal kicking off the jet stream and firing up the Atlantic from @Nick F is this easy turned off again if el nino signal stays in place i thought these patterns are hard to shift once in place?

Yes me too mate, as i said, there is no monster Greenland /Canadian PV driving this uptick in the jet..

[snowangel32]

I think some people belive we are in late Febuary. My god Winter hasnt even started but apparently its over all ready lol. Shame to see some people biting at other knowledgeable posters also. No one can predict the weather its simple as that we can only go on the information we have and make an educated guess. And i think Steve Murr and Tamara etc deserve more respect to be honest. We already lost many good posters we dont want to lose anymore. Chill people its November a long way to go yet.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, biggreyface said:

Would that be thrown in for autumn or winter

Just for the foreseeable future - which, I admit, doesn't extend for even 15 days...But who knows?