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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
21 minutes ago, Purga said:

Not for this thread I know, but worth mentioning that Exeter / MOGREPS are sticking to their guns re: a temporary mobile milder spell up to about mid December. Cold settled (i.e. blocked) conditions resuming thereafter.

The ENS still show the uncertainty.

image.thumb.png.148acac8e9303283ad2b0c2039d4e311.png

Even at the end of the GFS 06z run the NH profile shows a disorganised vortex profile which is far away from the standard 'zonal'

Exeter are not referencing the period covered by these ens (both eps and gefs) in their 16/30 day forecast which talks of a potentially more mobile spell followed by blocking again (as it has done for a while now)

so many times I see people trying to equate the model output for week 2 with the 16/30 day forecast .......they aren’t the same timescale !!

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

Think the models are showing some mobility from the west in the short term - let's hope it doesn't take a hold of the situation and the cold returns by mid month next month for the run up to xmas

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

once mobility sets in it can last for weeks.But it hasn’t yet and models probably been way too progressive in wanting to bring back Atlantic driven weather as they always are

Much colder runs are on their way later today i would think  and this week once they work out how the atmosphere is behaving.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

once mobility sets in it can last for weeks.But it hasn’t yet and models probably been way too progressive in wanting to bring back Atlantic driven weather as they always are

Much colder runs are on their way later today i would think  and this week once they work out how the atmosphere is behaving.

Was gona say the same!!think the 12zs will probably change for the better for cold lovers!!not long to go now!!

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
32 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

once mobility sets in it can last for weeks.But it hasn’t yet and models probably been way too progressive in wanting to bring back Atlantic driven weather as they always are

Much colder runs are on their way later today i would think  and this week once they work out how the atmosphere is behaving.

I agree usually once the Atlantic breaks through it does usually last weeks and weeks but like you say it hasn't yet..

This year has been very different to all the other years and the Atlantic weather hasn't been able to last more than a couple of weeks at a time with the usual onslaught of low pressure systems. 

Even the active hurricane season didn't last for to long when we got all the ex hurricanes over our neck of the woods. 

I think it's just a relax in the cold but not for to long.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

The fairly deep low crossing the south next Wednesday on the 06z operational a bit of an outlier it would seem looking at GEFS pressure for London

gfs_168.thumb.png.008b2ef8e5d3bcab1c9428bfff9849d9.png

GEFSmslp06z.thumb.png.577e770807663071aada4c17a2a19e21.png

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
6 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, but the Atlantic low tilted all wrong from what i can see, ie energy looks to be in the northern arm..

Enjoying model watching whilst hoping the block can hold on..

Nick said strong southern jet over US?  Atlantic coming in is not the end of the road and doesn’t mean zonality in its true sense or the end of a ‘cold pattern’.  Up to end of Nov I’m encouraged by the models this morning, and seeing how only 3 days ago the end of Nov looked like Atlantic mild run with block slipping away it now looks favourably remaining cold.   It shows that there is enough room for manoeuvre yet as we head into December.  I do suspect an Atlantic intrusion is coming, but not SW / NE flow and 06z end of month end, a watch period. 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Nick said strong southern jet over US?  Atlantic coming in is not the end of the road and doesn’t mean zonality in its true sense or the end of a ‘cold pattern’.  Up to end of Nov I’m encouraged by the models this morning, and seeing how only 3 days ago the end of Nov looked like Atlantic mild run with block slipping away it now looks favourably remaining cold.   It shows that there is enough room for manoeuvre yet as we head into December.  I do suspect an Atlantic intrusion is coming, but not SW / NE flow and 06z end of month end, a watch period. 

 

BFTP

I did say SOME mobility - let's hope it's very short and the cold not too far away shunts back in quickly

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Icon has now morphed towards the other models by phasing the Atlantic low with arctic low heights - ends with a stand off (not unexpected)

Not surprised considering lack of posts!!not a good start at all!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter are not referencing the period covered by these ens (both eps and gefs) in their 16/30 day forecast which talks of a potentially more mobile spell followed by blocking again (as it has done for a while now)

so many times I see people trying to equate the model output for week 2 with the 16/30 day forecast .......they aren’t the same timescale !!

True, but sometimes they dont change their 16-30 for a while which then means by definition, part of it has crept inside the 16d timeframe.

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

once mobility sets in it can last for weeks.But it hasn’t yet and models probably been way too progressive in wanting to bring back Atlantic driven weather as they always are

Much colder runs are on their way later today i would think  and this week once they work out how the atmosphere is behaving.

Why are the models to progressive to bring back Atlantic driven weather. 

Surely if that's what they predict within T+144 hrs then that's what happens.

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

What’s all doom Meto stuck to their guns or will someone have egg all over there faces.

No doom Abbie - any stand off will probably back west a bit and leave us under a grey blocking of some variety ....

note the icon at T180 has plenty of jet still running se into Europe 

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
5 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Surely if that's what they predict within T+144 hrs then that's what happens.

Probably does most of the time but we’ve had times where that hasn’t been the case. 

Edited by matt111
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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

Low pressure is more elongated at +60 on the GFS, anyone know how big an effect this has?

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
2 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Probably does most of the time but we’ve had times when that’s not the case. 

So most of the time it's right.

That's a good enough answer for me. 

Edited by sorepaw1
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

If the Atlantic wins out it's not all bad. Don't want a front loaded winter, the thought of winter being over by January is almost as depressing as a mild soggy November/December. 

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

UW144-21.GIF?21-16

A rather large and rounded Low from the UKM

Quite clear that the Atlantic will win the battle with relatively little difficulty.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
3 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Quite clear that the Atlantic will win the battle with relatively little difficulty.

It has been clear for a few days to be frank, the Jet was never playing ball and pulling the cold back west, the flow has mostly been forecast to be west to east

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Quite clear that the Atlantic will win the battle with relatively little difficulty.

If by quite clear you mean clear as mud, then sure

5D1D1AFA-EB4F-4AC8-923A-2448F8D5F0DD.thumb.png.d07d30dcb3b65bcad007b08940bc35d3.png

A798532A-1AD5-48AC-976A-370979B56A9D.thumb.gif.df90d1aac0d60468667149f04e2a5536.gif

Not a single person on the planet can claim that amount of confidence in the forecast going forward. 

Huge scatter. Huge uncertainty. 

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Just now, Daniel Smith said:

If by quite clear you mean clear as mud, then sure

5D1D1AFA-EB4F-4AC8-923A-2448F8D5F0DD.thumb.png.d07d30dcb3b65bcad007b08940bc35d3.png

A798532A-1AD5-48AC-976A-370979B56A9D.thumb.gif.df90d1aac0d60468667149f04e2a5536.gif

Not a single person on the planet can claim that amount of confidence in the forecast going forward. 

Huge scatter. Huge uncertainty. 

According to Frosty it has been clear for a few days now. All model output today has favoured on balance milder conditions, unfortunately. Even the UKMO the supposed model to look closely at in these situations has also trended that way. I wish there was something positive from the models today but there isn't.

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