The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[ICE COLD]

GFS 18z at T252 looks exactly like where we started off a week ago . 

Edited November 20, 2018 by ICE COLD

[bluearmy]

Out to day 10, there are six eps clusters (all under 20%)........if anything is required to tell you how uncertain the evolution will be, that’s it! 

[MattStoke]

Still little point in getting hung up on what happens in the longer term, because there’s still so much uncertainty regarding disruption (or non-disruption) of that low. Models almost always struggle with this setup. 

[markw2680]

I think as it’s all over the shop atm a break from the models for a few days would be good but not sure I can. I’m thinking by about Friday things will hopefully look a lot clearer, ok it may not be for the better but then again it may all be looking stunning again like it was only a week or so ago. 

Summed up atm imo is blocked but not quite in the right place for us to get the cold, instead we just get cool wet weather which is just awful.

i seem to keep banging on and I really ent got a clue what I’m on about  

[ICE COLD]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Out to day 10, there are six eps clusters (all under 20%)........if anything is required to tell you how uncertain the evolution will be, that’s it! 

Hi mate 

surely this has gotta come to a conclusion soon ? It’s been dragging on for ages . Feels like weeks .

[Johnp]

Jan ‘87 redux on the way?

Edited November 20, 2018 by Johnp

[ICE COLD]

Some very odd looking chats on the 18z , and damaging the vortex even more . 

[Allseasons-Si]

As i said earlier(before my post got removed,don't know why as i was discussing the models,maybe i touched a nerve),the divergence in the models start from days 5-6 and will be with the fluidity of blocking locals across the globe right now

will that low stay stationary in the atlantic to draw up WAA into the pole again and maybe create another Scandi high as we have seen in some models or wil it disrupt under the block to our north?

maybe we have to endure another bout of warm southerlies before we have another bite at the cherry

REMEMBER,we are still in November and there is a loooong way to go yet,but it is fastinating model output going on so early in the season.

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Hi mate 

surely this has gotta come to a conclusion soon ? It’s been dragging on for ages . Feels like weeks .

I find the 18z fi solution so much more attractive than the mexican  stand off we are currently in ......

Edited November 20, 2018 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

GFS 18z at T252 looks exactly like where we started off a week ago . 

The good thing is all these ridges with straight WAA into the pole will have a deleterious effect on the Strat vortex, don't forget the March cols spell needed a couple of these to get the pul of SIberian air to us, this charts has a real touch of the 87's about it.

[ICE COLD]

Yep it ends like this . 

Surley if charts keep being churned out like this , it will only be a matter of time before we hit the jackpot. 

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Wow look what's going on here, long drawn southerlies on the GFS 18z, I know it's in FI but 10C @850mb across Ireland during the first week of December! That would already be above average for the surface temperature let alone higher up @850mb, colder air stuck further to the east 

Edited November 20, 2018 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[Methuselah]

I'm liking that burgeoning European cold pool that most runs are sticking with...I feel the 'big one' may be not too far away?

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I know it’s the far reaches of FI, but the last timeframes show what would be the cusp of something exceptional building up. A Svalbard high intensifying and the NAO about to be sent tanking down. A 1947 poster chart at 384.

Let’s hope it’s a trend of things to come. 

Edited November 20, 2018 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening all .. Northern blocking  in situ   .....maybe some  stormy cold weather likely ....above alll zonal weather looks very unlikely 

[Purga]

What better potential, as shown, could one wish for at the start of the meteorological winter?

 

Edited November 20, 2018 by Purga

[JBMWeatherForever]

The models take longer to reach a consensus when data is different from the norm, hence the large scatter in predicted outcomes. So I think a period of significant cold looks likely to develop eventually, and even during next week, what was being forecast just a day or two ago as a gradual warm up from the south is now gradually being revised to a continuation of below average temperatures which I think will gradually become colder during next week with the continued easterly starting to pull in colder air again.

[Duane S.]

Only had 10 minutes to whizz through Tuesday’s charts. Seems more disruption out in the Atlantic than yesterday all in all and energy definitely tracking a bit further south in general. Not all on the same page yet though by the looks of it.

The models are struggling and will continue to do so. Bottom line, amazing potential. Especially considering that today we are still one month (to the day) from the start of the 2018/19 astronomical winter!

1963 didn’t get going for another 5 weeks that winter and 1947 was 4 weeks on from that!  Not making any comparisons, just pointing out great winters don’t have to get started first thing and in most of them there were often near misses and increasingly colder cold spells in the lead up, as the building blocks were dropping into the place.

Edited November 21, 2018 by s4lancia

[GeordieX9v]

The less said about FV3 the better

[northwestsnow]

1st out of the blocks this morning is ICON and i'm pleased to say it keeps the UK dry and cold out to 180..

So thats Block 1-0 Atlantic so far..

Edited November 21, 2018 by northwestsnow

[tight isobar]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

1st out of the blocks this morning is ICON and i'm pleased to say it keeps the UK dry and cold out to 180..

So thats Block 1-0 Atlantic so far..

Yes m8..

Ya cannot knock ye-old icon..

Dog with a bone for cold 'lockdown'!!

And as again some very significant notes..@pacific region..big game player..with eventual fruition!!..

Decent/honest evos..via icon!!

Edit; ..ps- if i see/hear the word 'REDUX'..again i think my heads going 2 explode!!!..

Edited November 21, 2018 by tight isobar

[northwestsnow]

Well ukmo looks decent to me again this morning.. cant post charts as at work..

[Seasonality]

7 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

It's not a cliché at all. Ian Fergusson said as much when he used to post here.  His words were (not ver batim) that they used the JMA to support their theories after consulting their model. I assume preferred were MOGREPS and ECM. There was a mention at one point that he personally held it in higher regard to the older GFS...

You missed the joke. I know that it's true, just it's one of those lines that always gets trotted out re: the JMA , mostly when cold is shown. I like it myself as a model. *insert attractive Japanese model here

[northwestsnow]

For comparison-

UKMO 144

GFS 144-

chalk and cheese..

[northwestsnow]

Last one for me but just to muddy the waters even further GEM looks different again but is a big improvement on its previous outputs and we see the colder air from the north making inroads into the UK-

Day 9 so very much FI..